Week 3 Fantasy Football Sneaky Starts & Sleepers

All but the luckiest fantasy owners at some point need to find the proverbial diamond in the rough—a waiver wire or bench player capable of putting up some points in a pinch. This weekly feature is dedicated to that part of fantasy football. It's not pretty, but it's part of the game.

I’ll put the defense’s aFPA rank in parentheses below, though users should exercise caution in putting too much stock into last year’s strength-of-schedule. The higher the number, the better the matchup. We will update aFPA for 2024 starting with Week 4 of this season.

Week 2’s Sneaky Starts featured Baker Mayfield (QB5), Brock Purdy (QB14), J.K. Dobbins (RB5), Brian Robinson (RB17), Devin Singletary (RB18), Rashid Shaheed (WR10), Alec Pierce (WR19), and Jameson Williams (WR23).

Let’s see who might surprise this week.

Quarterbacks

Brock Purdy, 49ers (@ LAR, 28)

Purdy had a solid game against the Vikings, throwing for 319 yards and a touchdown while adding 12 yards as a runner. The Rams limited Jared Goff in Week 1 but yielded 266/3 to Kyler Murray last week. Even without Deebo Samuel, Purdy should deliver this week.

Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers (vs. DEN, 8)

Mayfield is the QB1 through two weeks, scoring 29.7 against the Commanders and 18.8 against the Lions. The Broncos have been decent against the position, but Geno Smith scored 17.8 in Week 1. Ride the hot hand at home this week.

Derek Carr, Saints (vs. PHI, 26)

Like Mayfield, Carr is off to an extremely hot start, posting 43.1 points in two games, which makes him the fantasy QB2 thus far. The Eagles have yielded 16.4 fantasy points to Jordan Love and 17.5 to Kirk Cousins, so Carr is poised for another good game.

Geno Smith, Seahawks (vs. MIA, 12)

Smith has posted 17+ fantasy points in his first two games leading the Ryan Grubb offense. The Dolphins haven’t given up a big fantasy game yet to a quarterback, but they have yielded 7.5 YPA to Josh Allen and Trevor Lawrence.

Sam Darnold, Vikings (vs. HOU, 30)

Darnold is the QB10 through two games, throwing two touchdowns and one interception in both contests. He added 32 yards rushing against the 49ers last week. The Texans got shredded on the road in Week 1 (against Anthony Richardson) before shutting down the Bears’ struggling passing game at home in Week 2.

Running Backs

Tony Pollard, Titans (vs. GB, 16)

Tyjae Spears is “day-to-day” with an ankle injury. I currently don’t have him in the projections, so Pollard is coming in as a low-end RB1 this week against the Packers. Even if Spears plays, he could be limited and/or ineffective, which keeps a big Pollard game in play. So far, he has handled 20.5 touches per game, which is elite usage.

Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks (vs. MIA, 2)

Charbonnet is a step down from Kenneth Walker, but he posted 69 total yards and a touchdown on 19 touches and did not cede a single touch to another Seattle running back. The Dolphins have been getting torched by the position, yielding an average of 144 total yards and 2.0 touchdowns on 25.0 touches per game.

Zamir White, Raiders (vs. CAR, 19)

This is purely a matchup play, as White hasn’t provided any real reason to be in fantasy lineups thus far. The Panthers have given up an average of 187 total yards and 1.5 touchdowns on 37.5 touches to enemy backfields. The Raiders want to get the running game going and this is the week to do it.

D'Andre Swift, Bears (@ IND, 31)

Like Zamir White, Swift hasn’t done anything to justify a starting spot, but he has handled 28 of the team’s 37 backfield touches and faces the Colts, who have given up 159 yards to Joe Mixon and 151 yards to Josh Jacobs in consecutive weeks.

Zack Moss, Bengals (vs. WAS, 32)

The Commanders have yielded an average of 140 total yards and 0.5 touchdowns to opposing backfields thus far, so Moss should be able to deliver a useful game. He has handled 24 of the team’s 34 backfield touches through two weeks.

Carson Steele & Samaje Perine, Chiefs (@ ATL, 9)

Thus far, the only two running backs to carry the ball for the Chiefs are Isiah Pacheco (34 carries) and Carson Steele (9). Samaje Perine has two catches. The Chiefs also signed Kareem Hunt to the practice squad for added depth, but I think this will be Steele as the main ball carrier with Perine coming in on third downs in the Jerick McKinnon role. I favor Steele as a 12+ carry, goal-line threat, but Perine has some appeal in full-PPR formats. Steele hasn’t run the ball particularly well in the regular season, but tore it up in the preseason, and he actually caught more passes (58) in three collegiate seasons than Perine did (40) in three seasons at Oklahoma.

Wide Receivers

Rashid Shaheed (vs. PHI, 30) and Jameson Williams (@ ARI, 10) are budding stars and continue to be good starts.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks (vs. MIA, 16)

Wait, Smith-Njigba saw 16 targets last week?!? He only saw two targets in Week 1 but followed that up with a 12-catch, 117-yard day against the Patriots. I’d prefer nine targets in each game instead of these wild fluctuations in usage, but perhaps OC Ryan Grubb made a conscious decision to get JSN more involved after a quiet Week 1.

Khalil Shakir, Bills (vs. JAX, 20)

Through two games, Khalil Shakir leads the Bills in targets (8), catches (8), yards (96), and has one of the team's three receiving touchdowns. He’s penciled in as the Bills’ top receiving option, for now.

Xavier Worthy, Chiefs (@ ATL. 11)

He wasn’t as productive as he was in Week 1, but he still saw the second-most targets among the Chiefs’ receivers and Patrick Mahomes missed him running open on a couple of corner routes. His speed should be extra scary in the dome.

Diontae Johnson, Panthers (@ LV, 19)

Now that the Panthers decided to make a quarterback change, the quality of Johnson’s targets should go from bad to at least (sort of) mediocre. According to PFF, Bryce Young had the second-worst adjusted completion percentage–which tracks on-target throws–through two weeks. Johnson has been an elite separator throughout his career, so I’m banking that Andy Dalton can boost Johnson’s bottom line.

Demarcus Robinson, Rams (vs. SF, 18)

Robinson has 92 yards through two weeks and is serving as the Rams de facto WR1 with both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua out. He had a great run late last season, scoring at least 10.2 half-PPR fantasy points in five straight games from Week 13 to Week 17. The 49ers’ secondary is off to a rough start.

Alec Pierce, Colts (vs. CHI, 13)

Pierce is currently the fantasy WR5 and is still widely available on the waiver wire. He had a monster game in Week 1 (3-125-1 on three targets) in low usage, but caught 5-of-7 targets for 56 yards and another score last week against the Packers. He’ll primarily line up against Tyrique Stevenson, who gave up three catches for 48 yards to Nico Collins last week.

Jalen Nailor, Vikings (vs. HOU, 28)

Through two weeks, Nailor has caught four passes for 75 yards and two touchdowns, and his snaps spiked from 47% to 93% due to Jordan Addison’s high-ankle sprain, which should keep him out Week 3 and maybe longer. The Texans gave up big games to Alec Pierce (3-125-1) and Ashton Dulin (1-54-1) in Week 1 before doing a good job limiting the Bears’ struggling passing game. Nailor is a fantasy WR4-type this week and should be a useful spot start.

Here are a few more players in short format:

• Quentin Johnston, Chargers (@ PIT, 8) - Through two weeks, Quentin Johnston leads the Chargers in targets (11, tied with Ladd McConkey), catches (8), yards (89), and touchdowns (2).

• Andrei Iosivas, Bengals (vs. WAS, 29) - Obviously, Joe Burrow is looking for Iosivas in the red zone. He had 2-7-2 (4) against the Chiefs.

• Jauan Jennings, 49ers (@ LAR, 26) - He has 7-101 (9) on the season and should step into a larger role with Deebo Samuel sidelined.

• Jalen Tolbert, Cowboys (vs. BAL, 12) - The third-year WR played 86% of the snaps and posted 6-82 (9) against the Saints.

• Wan'Dale Robinson, Giants (@ CLE, 17) - Robinson has 8-62-1 on 16 targets as the Giants’ clear No. 2 option.

• Josh Reynolds, Broncos (@ TB, 31) - Reynolds has 138 yards in two games and seems to be vibing better with Bo Nix than Courtland Sutton is.

Tight Ends

Mike Gesicki, Bengals (vs. WAS, 21)

In Week 2, Gesicki led the Bengals in catches (7), targets (9), and yards (91) and currently leads the team in all receiving categories. You read that right. Gesicki had back-to-back 700+ yard seasons and posted the fifth-most receiving yardage (2,053) among tight ends from 2019 to 2021. It seems to be a nice marriage in Cincinnati.

Hunter Henry, Patriots (@ NYJ, 14)

After a quiet Week 1, Henry erupted for 8-109 on 12 targets against the Seahawks. He’s been a productive receiver whenever called upon, and the Patriots are desperate for pass-catchers with the receiver room underperforming.

Zach Ertz, Commanders (@ CIN, 31)

Ertz has posted 3-28 and 4-62 in the first two weeks, which doesn’t seem like much, but the consistent usage is nice given the state of the tight end position this season.

Colby Parkinson, Rams (vs. SF, 17)

After a solid outing in Week 1 (4-47 on five targets against the Lions), Parkinson was quiet (1-2 on two targets) against the Cardinals, but he played 81% of the snaps and the Rams are hurting at receiver.

Brenton Strange, Jaguars (@ BUF, 25)

If Evan Engram sits out again, Strange is usable as a TE2/streamer after posting 3-65 on six targets against Cleveland. He had the most air yards (82) of any tight end in Week 2.

Jonnu Smith, Dolphins (@ SEA, 24)

After a quiet Week 1, Smith caught 6-of-7 targets for 53 yards against the Bills. Miami may feature him more since Skylar Thompson is better suited to get the ball out quickly in the short passing game. The matchup is good too–Seattle just gave up 8-109 to Hunter Henry in Week 2.