Expert Mock Draft Recap: 12-Team Half-PPR (July 2022)
As we inch closer to real football and our first preseason games, it’s time to start figuring out what fantasy football draft boards are going to look like. As we all continue to digest one of the most hectic offseasons in recent NFL history, it’s the perfect time to formulate our redraft strategies.
More 2022 Redraft Resources: Player Profiles | Full Season Rankings
To find a clearer picture of the value of fantasy players come August, I asked some of the 4for4 staff and some friends from around the interwebs to participate in a 12-team redraft mock through the second and third weeks of July. The main point of this exercise is to determine what positive and negative takeaways we can find from twelve people who think about this game of ours throughout the entire calendar year. We will hit on names that were selected far above and below average draft position (ADP) while also trying to look at things from a macro level as well.
Any reference to ADP will be from our Underdog ADP app, and though this isn’t exactly the same format, it gives us a good baseline for how other people are drafting in what is currently the most active platform at the time of this draft.
You can find the full draft board here.
League Setup
Roster Settings: 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/2FLEX (W/R/T)/1K/1DST + 6 Bench Spots
Scoring Setting of note: Half-PPR
Draft Participants (in order):
1. Brandon Niles: 4for4/@2guysbrandon
2. Andrew Fleischer: 4for4/@AFleischer
3. Tom Sturdevant: @Tom_Sturdevant
4. Justin Edwards: 4for4/@Justin_Redwards
5. Rob Lorge: 4for4:@RobFFSlayer
6. Matt Schauf: Draft Sharks/@SchaufDS
7. Chris Allen: 4for4/@ ChrisAllenFFWX
8. Raju Byfield: 4for4:@FantasyContext
9. Mike Manning: Dynasty Nerds/@_Mike_Manning
10. Jeff Hicks: 4for4/@_Jeff_Hicks_
11. Doug Burrell: @dougwburrell
12. Mike Woellert: 4for4/@Mike_Woellert
Rounds 1-3
| RD | @2GUYSBRANDON | @AFLEISCHER | TOM STURDEVANT | @JUSTIN_REDWARDS | @ROBFFSLAYER | MATT SCHAUF | CHRIS ALLEN | RAJU BYFIELD | MIKE MANNING | JEFF HICKS | DOUG BURRELL | MIKE WOELLERT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | (1 - RB1) Taylor, J | (2 - RB2) McCaffrey, C | (3 - WR1) Kupp, C | (4 - WR2) Jefferson, J | (5 - RB3) Cook, D | (6 - RB4) Ekeler, A | (7 - WR3) Chase, J | (8 - RB5) Henry, D | (9 - RB6) Harris, N | (10 - RB7) Fournette, L | (11 - RB8) Mixon, J | (12 - WR4) Diggs, S |
| 2 | (12 - RB15) Williams, J | (11 - TE2) Andrews, M | (10 - RB14) Conner, J | (9 - RB13) Jones, A | (8 - WR7) Evans, M | (7 - WR6) Lamb, C | (6 - TE1) Kelce, T | (5 - RB12) Kamara, A | (4 - RB11) Swift, D | (3 - RB10) Barkley, S | (2 - WR5) Adams, D | (1 - RB9) Chubb, N |
| 3 | (1 - WR8) Hill, T | (2 - RB16) Akers, C | (3 - WR9) Samuel, D | (4 - WR10) Allen, K | (5 - WR11) Brown, A | (6 - RB17) Hall, B | (7 - WR12) Moore, D | (8 - RB18) Elliott, E | (9 - TE3) Pitts, K | (10 - WR13) Pittman, M | (11 - RB19) Montgomery, D | (12 - RB20) Mitchell, E |
Select Draft Comments
Rob Lorge: “I really think Dalvin Cook is a dark horse to be “the” RB1 this year. He had the third most red zone carries last year and only had 6 touchdowns after having 16 & 13 the last two years. Positive TD regression is on the horizon inside an offense that will be more fast-paced with Zimmer gone. He has 300+ touch potential & is often used in the passing game. I debated Ekeler, but he’ll have negative TD regression & Cook will have positive regression in that department.”
Takeaways
This is a very sharp start for all involved, and it comes as no surprise. The old adage goes something like, “you can’t win your league in the first three rounds, but you can certainly lose it.” I don’t see anyone coming out of the gate with a dud here. This draft started a little running back hungry, which ended up leading to some minor reaches at the position as people scrambled to ensure they had a reliable option as their RB1.
Twenty of the first 36 picks would end up being running backs, with eight teams acquiring at least two running backs in the first three rounds, one of which started RB-RB-RB. When you’re on the losing end of this scenario, it’s important to zig into a different draft strategy (such as Zero RB), as we see with Chris Allen’s team. Seeing that he was being passed over by the RB-hungry teams, he simply started Ja’Marr Chase-Travis Kelce-D.J. Moore and strengthened his pass-catching group. He’ll probably be playing the waiver wire aggressively for running back help, but it’s a better option than overreaching and setting your team up for failure.
Biggest Reaches
Breece Hall, Jets (3.06), Cam Akers, Rams (3.02), Leonard Fournette, Buccaneers (1.10), Saquon Barkley, Giants (2.03)
Best Values
Deebo Samuel, 49ers (3.03), CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys (2.07), Mark Andrews, Ravens (2.11)
Rounds 4-7
| RD | @2GUYSBRANDON | @AFLEISCHER | TOM STURDEVANT | @JUSTIN_REDWARDS | @ROBFFSLAYER | MATT SCHAUF | CHRIS ALLEN | RAJU BYFIELD | MIKE MANNING | JEFF HICKS | DOUG BURRELL | MIKE WOELLERT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | (12 - RB24) Gibson, A | (11 - WR20) Sutton, C | (10 - RB23) Jacobs, J | (9 - WR19) Metcalf, D | (8 - WR18) Williams, M | (7 - QB1) Allen, J | (6 - WR17) Waddle, J | (5 - RB22) Dobbins, J | (4 - WR16) Johnson, D | (3 - WR15) McLaurin, T | (2 - WR14) Higgins, T | (1 - RB21) Etienne, T |
| 5 | (1 - WR21) Cooks, B | (2 - WR22) Robinson, A | (3 - RB25) Dillon, A | (4 - QB2) Herbert, J | (5 - WR23) Brown, M | (6 - TE4) Waller, D | (7 - RB26) Sanders, M | (8 - WR24) Smith-Schuster, J | (9 - WR25) Bateman, R | (10 - WR26) St. Brown, A | (11 - TE5) Kittle, G | (12 - WR27) Cooper, A |
| 6 | (12 - QB5) Murray, K | (11 - WR34) Moore, E | (10 - WR33) Davis, G | (9 - TE6) Schultz, D | (8 - QB4) Jackson, L | (7 - RB27) Edwards-Helaire, C | (6 - QB3) Mahomes, P | (5 - WR32) Jeudy, J | (4 - WR31) Godwin, C | (3 - WR30) Woods, R | (2 - WR29) Mooney, D | (1 - WR28) Thielen, A |
| 7 | (1 - WR35) Kirk, C | (2 - RB28) Pollard, T | (3 - QB6) Hurts, J | (4 - RB29) Edmonds, C | (5 - RB30) Penny, R | (6 - WR36) Thomas, M | (7 - RB31) Singletary, D | (8 - WR37) London, D | (9 - RB32) Hunt, K | (10 - WR38) Claypool, C | (11 - RB33) Patterson, C | (12 - QB7) Burrow, J |
Select Draft Comments
Rob Lorge - “Lamar Jackson is an absolute cheat code. He’s one of the few QBs that have a legit chance to knock Allen off the top spot. He was on pace for 4,000 yards passing & 1,000 yards rushing last year before he got hurt. He’s been one of the best fantasy QBs since he got the starting job and I expect more of the same this year.”
Takeaways:
The first two tiers of quarterbacks end up going in this range, with seven teams selecting their OB1. All of the surefire dual-threat quarterbacks go in this range (with the exception of Justin Fields and Trey Lance, but more on that later), leaving that third tier of pocket passers (Dak Prescott, Matt Stafford, Tom Brady) left for the rest of the league.
We’re going to see a lot more “reaches” in these middle rounds, as this is where ADP fluctuates heavily through the summer months. News, suspensions, training camp reports, press conferences, and a plethora of other intangibles give individual drafters a certain “feel” for how players’ opportunities are likely to change ahead of the season. That could mean taking a player two rounds earlier than his current ADP because you are certain that that’s where it will inevitably be or because you simply like his landing spot coming out of the draft more than your league mates. On the flip side, a player caught up in the news cycle is more likely to be faded if his price tag is in the sixth round, more so than if he were already going later, say, in the 12th round.
It’s interesting to note that the below “biggest reaches” are also reflected as much-higher than the market in 4for4’s current rankings, which looks to be bullish on these players because they are in convoluted situations. Oftentimes it’s better to take a stand on some of these players before the rest of the market can adjust throughout the summer.
Biggest Reaches
Christian Kirk, Cardinals (7.01), Rashod Bateman, Ravens (5.09), Allen Robinson, Rams (5.02), Miles Sanders, Eagles (5.07)
Best Values
Darren Waller, Raiders (5.06), Josh Allen, Bills, (4.07), Tee Higgins, Bengals (4.02), Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins (4.06)
Rounds 8-11
| RD | @2GUYSBRANDON | @AFLEISCHER | TOM STURDEVANT | @JUSTIN_REDWARDS | @ROBFFSLAYER | MATT SCHAUF | CHRIS ALLEN | RAJU BYFIELD | MIKE MANNING | JEFF HICKS | DOUG BURRELL | MIKE WOELLERT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | (12 - RB37) Walker III, K | (11 - QB8) Prescott, D | (10 - RB36) Jones, R | (9 - WR43) Aiyuk, B | (8 - TE8) Goedert, D | (7 - WR42) Gage, R | (6 - WR41) Lockett, T | (5 - WR40) Olave, C | (4 - WR39) Smith, D | (3 - RB35) Stevenson, R | (2 - RB34) Harris, D | (1 - TE7) Hockenson, T |
| 9 | (1 - WR44) Chark, D | (2 - TE9) Ertz, Z | (3 - WR45) Hopkins, D | (4 - RB38) Gordon, M | (5 - RB39) Gainwell, K | (6 - WR46) Toney, K | (7 - RB40) Hines, N | (8 - QB9) Stafford, M | (9 - WR47) Lazard, A | (10 - QB10) Brady, T | (11 - WR48) Renfrow, H | (12 - WR49) Boyd, T |
| 10 | (12 - RB46) Robinson, J | (11 - WR53) Moore, S | (10 - WR52) Golladay, K | (9 - RB45) Cook, J | (8 - RB44) Mattison, A | (7 - WR51) Burks, T | (6 - WR50) Valdes-Scantling, M | (5 - TE10) Knox, D | (4 - QB11) Wilson, R | (3 - RB43) Carter, M | (2 - RB42) McKissic, J | (1 - RB41) Allgeier, T |
| 11 | (1 - WR54) Davis, C | (2 - WR55) Meyers, J | (3 - RB47) Spiller, I | (4 - WR56) Landry, J | (5 - WR57) Gallup, M | (6 - RB48) Henderson, D | (7 - RB49) Herbert, K | (8 - WR58) Wilson, G | (9 - RB50) Mack, M | (10 - WR59) Hardman, M | (11 - TE11) Freiermuth, P | (12 - WR60) Patrick, T |
Takeaways
The Raiders pass catchers not named Davante Adams are dropping down draft boards precipitously, as Matt Schauf was able to snag Darren Waller at 5.06 while Doug Burrell was able to grab Hunter Renfrow here at the 9.11. Though the drops are understandable, both players still have some value at that price point, even if they will not far out-shoot their former 100+ target glory years.
We are well into NFL team’s number-two running back options, with the notable exception here being the Patriots backfield, as we see Damien Harris and Rhamondre Steveson go back-to-back at the beginning of the eighth round. I actually like both of the backs as 2021 marked the second straight season in which the New England Patriots finished either 31st or 32nd in neutral pass rate, continuing to zig while the rest of the league zags. With the team losing offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to the Las Vegas Raiders and the continued improvement of Mac Jones, it seems unlikely that things will stay the course, but the running backs are sure to continue getting a large piece of the offense. Stevenson being a bit of a reach, and Harris being a bit of a value gives us a unique draft pairing here.
The onesie positions are pretty much all dried up at this point, with a couple of notable exemptions that we will get into on the next and final part of the draft.
Biggest Reaches
Isaiah Spiller, Chargers (11.03), Kenneth Gainwell, Eagles (9.05), Tyler Allgeier, Falcons (10.01), D.J. Chark, Lions (9.01)
Best Values
Pat Freiermuth, Steelers (11.11), Hunter Renfrow, Raiders (9.11), Dak Prescott, Cowboys (8.11), Dawson Knox, Bills (10.05)
Rounds 12-16
| RD | @2GUYSBRANDON | @AFLEISCHER | TOM STURDEVANT | @JUSTIN_REDWARDS | @ROBFFSLAYER | MATT SCHAUF | CHRIS ALLEN | RAJU BYFIELD | MIKE MANNING | JEFF HICKS | DOUG BURRELL | MIKE WOELLERT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | (12 - RB53) Foreman, D | (11 - RB52) Pierce, D | (10 - TE14) Fant, N | (9 - WR64) Tolbert, J | (8 - TE13) Kmet, C | (7 - QB13) Lance, T | (6 - WR63) Jones, M | (5 - WR62) Parker, D | (4 - WR61) Moore, R | (3 - TE12) Gesicki, M | (2 - QB12) Rodgers, A | (1 - RB51) White, R |
| 13 | (1 - TE15) Everett, G | (2 - Def1) Bills, B | (3 - WR65) Anderson, R | (4 - RB54) Ingram, M | (5 - WR66) Watson, C | (6 - WR67) Dotson, J | (7 - RB55) Williams, J | (8 - PK1) Carlson, D | (9 - WR68) Crowder, J | (10 - WR69) Green, A | (11 - RB56) Mostert, R | (12 - WR70) Bourne, K |
| 14 | (12 - WR73) Williams, J | (11 - RB60) Davis-Price, T | (10 - Def3) 49ers, S | (9 - RB59) Edwards, G | (8 - WR72) Osborn, K | (7 - RB58) Michel, S | (6 - WR71) Palmer, J | (5 - QB14) Fields, J | (4 - TE17) Okwuegbunam, A | (3 - TE16) Smith Jr., I | (2 - RB57) Wilson, J | (1 - Def2) Rams, L |
| 15 | (1 - WR74) Jefferson, V | (2 - WR75) Pickens, G | (3 - TE18) Hooper, A | (4 - PK2) Succop, R | (5 - PK3) McPherson, E | (6 - PK4) Tucker, J | (7 - PK5) Bass, T | (8 - TE19) Njoku, D | (9 - RB61) Williams, D | (10 - RB62) Evans, C | (11 - Def4) Patriots, N | (12 - PK6) Butker, H |
| 16 | (12 - PK11) Koo, Y | (11 - PK10) McManus, B | (10 - PK9) Hopkins, D | (9 - Def8) Buccaneers, T | (8 - Def7) Packers, G | (7 - Def6) Chargers, L | (6 - RB63) McKinnon, J | (5 - Def5) Saints, N | (4 - QB15) Carr, D | (3 - PK8) Blankenship, R | (2 - PK7) Gay, M | (1 - WR76) Collins, N |
Takeaways
This is just the utter disrespect portion of the draft, for better or worse. It kicks off with Tim Patrick (11.12 - WR60), who finished as the WR41 last year but is now apparently being downgraded because Russell Wilson is replacing Drew Lock. Next, there’s Marvin Jones (12.06 - WR63), who wrapped up an absolute disaster of a season as the overall WR34 in half-PPR points while the team only added slot receiver, Christian Kirk, to the offense ahead of 2022. Finally, there is Christian Watson (13.05 - WR66), who the Packers drafted in the second round, and has only the likes of Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb to compete with for immediate playing time.
Joining this pity party are two of the most dynamic players in the NFL; Trey Lance and Justin Fields. Fields has a miserable skill position and an awful offensive line surrounding him, but neither of those is true for Lance, who has a very legitimate chance at finishing 2022 as a top-six quarterback. This is great value here to take him as a high-end backup in the middle of the 12th round.
This late in the draft, we’re not going to bother with reaches and values. People take guys in the 15th round for all sorts of reasons, and judging someone’s decision to take a shot on Josh Palmer or the Saints' defense would be silly. There aren’t a lot of surprises here in the back quarter of the draft, but do be aware that many of the “major” redraft sites are going to force you to select a defense and kicker if your league has them in your starting requirements.
Rookie Costs
In total, there were 17 rookies selected in this draft, a number almost identical to the amount typically going in 2021 drafts and one less than when we ran this mock back in May:
Quarterback: (none)
Running Backs: Breece Hall (3.06), Kenneth Walker III (8.12), Tyler Allgeier (10.01), Isaiah Spiller (11.03), Rachaad White (12.01), Dameon Pierce (12.11), Tyrion Davis-Price (14.11)
Wide Receivers: Drake London (7.08), Chris Olave (8.05), Treylon Burks (10.07), Skyy Moore (10.11), Garrett Wilson (11.08), Jalen Tolbert (12.09), Christian Watson (13.05), Jahan Dotson (13.06), Jameson Williams (14.12), George Pickens (15.02)
Tight Ends: (none)
Drafter with most rookies: Andrew Fleischer and Raju Byfield, three each
With Kenny Pickett and Trey McBride going undrafted in this particular mock, there simply aren’t that many options to choose from at the quarterback or tight end positions in redraft leagues this year, though I would bet that they each come off the waiver wire at some point during the season, depending on matchups.
Without major camp news for these rookie wide receivers, almost this entire class has fallen a round or more since the May iteration of this mock draft. I would expect many of these to bounce right back once we start to get the run-of-the-mill “best shape of my life”/”catching on quickly” tweets that we see heading into August.
The draft buzz has also fallen off many of the rookie running backs, with Zamir White, Brian Robinson, and Abram Smith all going drafted back in May but falling completely off the board here in July. In their places are; Isaiah Spiller, Rachaad White, and Tyrion Davis-Price.
Bottom Line
Average draft positions are starting to shape into what they will inevitably be by the end of draft season, but there are still plenty of landmarks along the way to significantly shake things up. Camp reports, preseason playing time, and inevitably, injuries are going to play a big part in formulating depth charts and offensive usage, but after this exercise, we have a better view of how drafters value players in the month of July.
- Rookies will bounce back up draft boards once we get some camp feedback, so if you like a player and their landing spot, don’t be afraid to take a stand now.
- Inversely, there are many veterans who will tend to be cheaper later in the season; if there are rookies you don't believe in, load up on incumbents in those situations. Examples of those players who were selected “early” in this draft include; Chase Claypool, Amari Cooper, Elijah Mitchell, Michael Gallup, Allen Lazard, and Rashaad Penny.
- Though the sample size every year is so slight, it would seem that very good-to-elite level wide receivers who change teams between seasons are less negatively affected than they have been in years past. If you are inclined to believe —as I am— that receivers on a new team have an easier time adjusting than they have historically, then drafting them before the majority of the public see them on the field in their new jersey would seem like the way to go. This would include players such as; Davante Adams, A.J. Brown, Robert Woods, Amari Cooper (again), Christian Kirk, and/or Allen Robinson.
