Paulsen's Players: Round-by-Round Fantasy Football Draft Targets & Shy-Away Players

This year, I’ve typically been implementing a combination of strategies that include Hero RB, Stud TE, and Late-Round QB. It will usually begin with a running back in the first round, but there are Hero RB candidates available in the second and third rounds this season.

I went into great detail on a position-by-position basis in my annual Draft Day Strategery article, but now I’m going to go round-by-round and highlight some targets, strategies, and “shy-away” players to avoid.

Note: I’ll include Underdog ADP and positional ADP ranks to provide an idea of the availability of each player in any given round. Underdog ADP is pretty sharp, so managers in a typical friends and family league should be able to wait a round longer on most of these players, especially in the middle and later rounds. These draft targets assume a half-PPR scoring format, though small adjustments can be made for full-PPR.

Rounds 1-2

If I’m drafting in a position where I don’t think I’ll be able to get a stud tight end in the second round then I’ll pivot to receiver in the first round–assuming Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey are off the board–and then draft a running back in the second round.

Austin Ekeler (ADP 6, RB3) and Derrick Henry (ADP 8, RB4) are excellent Hero RB candidates sometimes available in the mid-to-late-first round. Dalvin Cook (ADP 9, RB5) is also a possibility, though his history of shoulder injuries worries me a bit.

Whether I draft a receiver or a running back in the first round, I’m typically targeting Travis Kelce (ADP 13, TE1) or Mark Andrews (ADP 22, TE2) in the second round to lock up a major advantage at the tight end position.

Davante Adams (ADP 11, WR5), Stefon Diggs (ADP 8, WR4), or CeeDee Lamb (ADP 14, WR6) are solid picks near the 1st/2nd turn as well. Once they are off the board, I’ll typically ignore receiver until the third round.

Joe Mixon (ADP 14, RB7), Aaron Jones (ADP 18, RB10), D’Andre Swift (ADP 16, RB9), Saquon Barkley (ADP 15, RB8), Leonard Fournette (ADP 25, RB13) and Javonte Williams (ADP 20, RB12) are other Hero RB candidates available in the mid-to late-second round.

Shy-Away (Update 8/27): I'm no longer avoiding Alvin Kamara (ADP 18, RB11), but I am worried about his overall workload with Mark Ingram in the mix. Last year, he averaged 24.4 touches per game without Ingram but just 16.8 touches per game in four games with a healthy Ingram. (The same thing happened in 2017-2018; Kamara saw 14.3 touches in 27 games with Ingram versus 22.8 touches in four games with Ingram sidelined.) That still yielded 16.5 half-PPR points per game, which is typically good enough for Top-7 type numbers. The Saints are also pretty loaded at receiver with Michael Thomas back and both Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave added to the receiving corps, so Kamara's target share may take a hit as well. I'm not too worried about his legal trouble, though there's a small chance that there's a surprise (i.e. the video of the incident is leaked) that forces the league's hand in 2022. I've bumped Kamara up a bit since he looked good in the preseason and I'm bullish about this New Orleans offense as a whole, but I wouldn't target him ahead of ADP.

Here are Kamara's splits. His games with a healthy Mark Ingram are on the left.

I’m typically avoiding second-round receivers Deebo Samuel, Mike Evans, and Tyreek Hill, though they could very well return value and I’d be happy to nab any of them if they slipped into the third round.

Rounds 3-4

The third round is a great spot to target a receiver like Michael Pittman (ADP 28, WR12), A.J. Brown (ADP 26, WR10), D.J. Moore (ADP 33, WR15), Tee Higgins (ADP 27, WR11), or Keenan Allen (ADP 30, WR13). I’d definitely draft a receiver here if I started RB/TE in the first two rounds.

James Conner (ADP 35, RB15) is typically available late into the third round and is a good Hero RB candidate when I start WR/TE.

I’m also warming up to Kyle Pitts (ADP 30, TE3) in the third. It’s fun to draft Pitts, but I do have concerns about his quarterback situation. He should see a ton of targets, however.

Talented receivers continue to be available for the next few rounds. In the fourth, I’m targeting Terry McLaurin (ADP 42, WR20), Gabriel Davis (ADP 41, WR19), Allen Robinson (ADP 39, WR18), and Diontae Johnson (ADP 49, WR24), though Johnson will sometimes spill into the fifth round.

Ezekiel Elliott (ADP 39, RB17) is the last semi-confident Hero RB candidate on the board. If I started the draft with three receivers or two receivers and a tight end, I’d be targeting Elliott here to shore up my RB1 slot.

Shy-Away: I’m having trouble getting on board with Travis Etienne (ADP 37, RB16) at his current ADP. Multiple beat reports have stated that the team still considers James Robinson the RB1 in Jacksonville and HC Doug Pederson has a history of utilizing a backfield committee. I love his talent and versatility, but my environmental concerns remain.

I’m also avoiding fourth-round Jerry Jeudy (ADP 44, WR22), who is a breakout candidate with Russell Wilson at quarterback and Tim Patrick out for the year, but I’m not confident in that call. There are several other receivers going later that I’d rather roster.

Rounds 5-6

The receiver ranks continue to be bountiful, which is why I like to start Hero RB/Stud TE and then focus on the receiver position in the third through sixth rounds.

Brandin Cooks (ADP 52, WR25), DK Metcalf (ADP 57, WR30), Amon-Ra St. Brown (ADP 57, WR29), Rashod Bateman (ADP 54, WR26), Chris Godwin (ADP 56, WR28), Darnell Mooney (ADP 61, WR31) and Michael Thomas (ADP 56, WE27) are solid-to-good targets in this round, though Mooney will sometimes still be on the board in the early sixth.

Adam Thielen (ADP 67, WR33) has been my primary target in the sixth round. Last season, through the first 12 weeks, prior to injuring his ankle, Thielen had racked up 63-686-10 on 90 targets and was the fantasy WR7. And the Vikings are planning to throw the ball more this season.

I’m typically waiting until the seventh/eighth to draft my RB2–more on that later–but I will start to consider quarterback in the sixth. Jalen Hurts (ADP 62, QB6) is trending up after the Eagles called a pass on all eight plays that Hurts was on the field for during the first preseason game. They traded for A.J. Brown, which also signals an intention to pass the ball more. The Eagles have a great offensive line too. Kyler Murray (ADP 62, QB5) is sometimes available as well. He’s everything we hope Hurts can be, but the Arizona offensive line is an issue.

Shy-Away: I’m out on Cam Akers (ADP 50, RB19), who is returning from a torn Achilles and is now apparently in a timeshare with Darrell Henderson, per his head coach, Sean McVay.

Rounds 7-8

Chase Edmonds (ADP 83, RB27) is almost always available in the seventh round and he’s my primary target there. He’s the player I want as my RB2, especially in full-PPR formats.

Our own Connor Allen wrote a great breakdown about why Edmonds is a “massive” value in early drafts this season. The Dolphins gave him six times as much money as their next biggest backfield free agent signing (Raheem Mostert) and Edmonds is particularly effective in a zone-blocking run scheme which is what new HC Mike McDaniel is likely to run after working for Kyle Shanahan the last few years. He may not see the goal-line work (though he might) but should see the vast majority of the backfield receptions since his primary competition is Mostert and Sony Michel. Throw in an improved offensive line and Edmonds should significantly outperform his ADP.

Rhamondre Stevenson (ADP 86, RB28) is also on my radar at this point in the draft and if I can get Edmonds and Stevenson in the seventh/eighth, I will. Stevenson’s ADP has been rising, however, and he’s sometimes going off the board as early as the sixth round. Damien Harris (ADP 100, RB34) is a good pivot in this situation. After all, he’s still the starter in New England and could see his passing down snaps increase as well. As his ADP is sliding, he becomes an even bigger value.

If for some reason I’m not drafting my RB2/RB3 here, there are a few appealing receivers on the board. Allen Lazard (ADP 71, WR35), Christian Kirk (ADP 80, WR40), and Drake London (ADP 72, WR36) are typically going in the late sixth to the late seventh. Chris Olave (ADP 86, WR43) is appealing in the eighth, especially if Michael Thomas’s hamstring injury lingers.

If I missed out on a stud tight end, this is a good time to look for Dalton Schultz (ADP 71, TE6), T.J. Hockenson (ADP 92, TE8), or Dallas Goedert (ADP 92, TE7).

Shy-Away: Josh Jacobs (ADP 76, RB24) and Miles Sanders (ADP 91, RB29) are both going off the board in this range and I want no part of either player since they both appear to be mired in committees. Sanders is injured too. Yikes.

Rounds 9-10

In these two rounds, I typically want to end up with Aaron Rodgers (ADP 111, QB14), assuming I need a quarterback, and Tyler Lockett (ADP 101, WR48), who is a terrific value this season.

Rodgers is my primary target at quarterback. The back-to-back MVP is the 14th quarterback off the board after finishing QB5 last year and QB2 the year before. Granted, he lost the best receiver in the league (Davante Adams), but in the eight games that he’s played without Adams since 2016, his numbers haven’t suffered at all. Our Market Share Splits App said that the difference between his splits is “probably just randomness,” which proves the point: He’s been the same player when Adams has been sidelined. In fact, his touchdowns (2.19 vs. 2.38), yards per attempt (7.4 vs. 8.3), and his overall fantasy production (20.7 PPG vs. 21.2) have all increased without Adams. This is not to say that he’ll be better without the top receiving weapon in the league, but it should alleviate any concerns that his production will take a nosedive without Adams.

I mentioned Damien Harris earlier. His ADP has recently slipped to the early ninth; he’s a bargain at this point in the draft. I’d look for Lockett and Harris if I drafted a quarterback earlier. Robert Woods (ADP 98, WR46) is a good fallback option if Lockett is drafted early.

Shy-Away: Since he’s undergone hernia surgery, I’m avoiding Kenneth Walker (ADP 112, RB38) completely. It’s going to be several weeks before he’s ready to play.

Rounds 11-12

My primary running back target in this range is Nyheim Hines (ADP 128, RB42). Hines didn’t have as many spike weeks in 2021 as he did the year before, but that was likely due to Carson Wentz electing not to check it down as often as Philip Rivers did in 2020. On the other hand, Matt Ryan targeted Cordarrelle Patterson and Mike Davis a combined 127 times (!!!) last season and the Colts sound serious about using Hines as a receiver more frequently this year, so he should get back to the 60- to 65-catch range pretty easily if he stays healthy.

Indianapolis signed Hines to a three-year deal worth $18.6 million ($12.0 million guaranteed), which would have been the second-biggest contract in free agency last year behind Leonard Fournette. That shows intent. He also has major upside if anything were to happen to Jonathan Taylor as evidenced by the 18 touches for 95 yards that he saw in Week 12 of the 2020 season while Taylor was sidelined.

Isaiah Pacheco (ADP 139, RB46) has surged into this range. I still think Clyde Edwards-Helaire is going to lead this backfield in touches, and Jerick McKinnon will have a role, but Pacheco does have some injury upside at this point in the draft.

Nabbing Hines in the 11th and then Isaiah McKenzie (ADP 143, WR64) in the 12th is an ideal pairing in this range, though McKenzie will likely slip further in typical home leagues. He has apparently locked down the Bills’ slot role and was even playing in some two-receiver sets in the preseason, so it looks like he’ll be on the field a lot this year for the Bills.

We don’t have a big sample, but in the two games that McKenzie started with Cole Beasley sidelined, he posted 6-65-2 on nine targets (Week 17 of the 2020 season) and 11-125-1 on 12 targets (Week 16 last year). Stefon Diggs played in both games, though he played roughly half the snaps in the 2020 game. The point is–when McKenzie has played starter’s snaps, he has really delivered.

The Athletic’s Joe Buscaglia said that McKenzie has had a “superb camp” and gives the team a better chance for “explosive plays and more yards after the catch.” He’ll also be a threat to run the ball, which raises his floor a bit. Remember, Cole Beasley caught 82 passes in back-to-back seasons in the same role.

Another appealing receiver going off the board in this range is Romeo Doubs (ADP 126, WR58). I still prefer McKenzie, but managers may be able to get both since McKenzie is going off the board in the 12th or later. Doubs may not get off to a hot start–it appears that he’s still behind Allen Lazard, Sammy Watkins, and Randall Cobb–but as the season progresses, he should get plenty of opportunities. Aaron Rodgers has been talking him up, and in his training camp review, Peter King called him “one of the most impressive rookies” that he saw in his training camp tour, and that he’s going to play a “major role” as soon as Week 1.

Again, if I don’t yet have a tight end on the roster, this is a good range to start looking again. Cole Kmet (ADP 121, TE11) might be my favorite breakout candidate at the position, though managers in sharp leagues may have to target him in the 10th round. As the likely No. 2 target for the Bears, he should see plenty of opportunity, especially late in games when the Bears are trying to play catch-up.

Pat Freiermuth (ADP 138, TE13) and Irv Smith (ADP 140, TE14) are two other breakout candidates going in this range. Albert Okwuegbunam (ADP 135, TE12) is as well, but his preseason usage has been worrisome.

Shy-Away: I just don’t think Mecole Hardman (ADP 130, WR60) is going to happen, folks.

Late-Round Targets

Once the draft hits the 13th round, here are some other players I’m interested in at each position:

Receivers

Jakobi Meyers (ADP 146, WR65)
K.J. Osborn (ADP 146, WR66)
Alec Pierce (ADP 167, WR75)
Marvin Jones (ADP 174, WR77)
Curtis Samuel (ADP 202, WR85)

Running Backs

Michael Carter (ADP 146, RB49)
Khalil Herbert (ADP 154, RB51)
Zamir White (ADP 167, RB53)
Jamaal Williams (ADP 158, RB52)
D’Ernest Johnson (ADP 209, RB66)
Boston Scott (ADP 214, RB75)
Damien Williams (ADP 216, RB88)

Quarterbacks

Jameis Winston (ADP 154, QB19)

Tight Ends

Hunter Henry (ADP 156, TE16)
Austin Hooper (ADP 186, TE24)
Hayden Hurst (ADP 178, TE22)
Mo Alie-Cox (ADP 205, TE28)

Defenses and Kickers

From a value standpoint, I like the New England and Green Bay defenses this year, though there are a few other good options out there, like Kansas City, Miami, and Philadelphia.

At kicker, Brandon McManus appears to be a particularly good value given his big leg and the quarterback/offense upgrade he’ll enjoy this season. Ryan Succop, Rodrigo Blankenship, Greg Joseph, and Jason Sanders are good value kickers as well, though be sure to keep an eye on the training camp battles/news.

As always, at this point in draft season, I’m updating the projections on a near-daily basis and can’t always keep articles like this perfectly updated. So be sure to look at the rankings as you put your draft plan together.

Happy drafting!