Daigle's Top NFL DFS Picks: Week 9

Nov 04, 2022

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I begin my research for DFS tournaments every week by sifting through what our opponents are doing and engineering lineups backward from there.

These top plays, though viable for cash games (which will be noted throughout), are suggested specifically for tournaments and are weighted for ceiling projection, matchup, ownership, and value. I will include any thoughts on game theory within my reasoning for each player.

They are listed in order of descending price, not by my personal rankings.

More Week 9 DFS Strategy: Cash Game Breakdown | GPP Breakdown | WR/CB Matchups | Top Contrarian Plays

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)

Having allowed the fifth-highest completion rate on throws 10 yards downfield, Atlanta’s secondary on paper is one we should logically attack. But given the injuries to Mike Williams (ankle) and Keenan Allen (hamstring), Herbert’s ceiling should be brought into question. I’m eyeing him for tournaments if our opponents back off of him, but will admittedly be playing it by ear down to the wire.

Aaron Rodgers ($5,900 DK, $7,000 FD)

Detroit has permitted 36 points per game at home this year, ceding top-five finishes to every opposing quarterback in the Silverdome. Rodgers can easily be stacked with Aaron Jones (the chalk) and one of his receivers since all are live against a Lions secondary allowing 8.3 yards per attempt and the second-highest rate of 15-yard gains through the air.

Trevor Lawrence ($5,200 DK, $6,800 FD)

Jacksonville’s ninth-lowest scoring rate inside the red zone should not deter us from targeting Lawrence given Las Vegas’ second-highest touchdown rate permitted in that area of the field, additionally laying down for the league’s highest rate of passing touchdowns. Andy Dalton (in last week’s blowout) was the first quarterback to fail to register a top-eight finish against the Raiders this year.

Running Backs

Austin Ekeler ($8,800 DK, $9,400 FD)

Having already averaged 9.5 targets for a 19.9% share without Keenan Allen since Week 2, Ekeler’s floor-ceiling combo on DraftKings, where receptions are rewarded, is as safe as any player’s since both Williams and Allen are expected to sit. Those injuries admittedly bring Los Angeles’ ceiling as an offense into question, but Atlanta has fortuitously allowed the eighth-highest completion rate on throws within nine yards of the line of scrimmage, where Ekeler has accrued all 61 of his targets this year.

Aaron Jones ($7,400 DK, $7,800 FD)

“Simplifying things” on offense per Aaron Rodgers’ request has resulted in Jones leading the team with 15 targets the past two games and most recently handling a season-high 24 touches on Sunday night against Buffalo. Jones can be stacked with Rodgers and deliver in a variety of ways since the Lions have also ceded the league’s fifth-highest rate of explosive runs (10-plus yards).

Josh Jacobs ($7,300 DK, $8,800 FD)

Even in falling face first for a season-low in yards from scrimmage (54) against the Saints, Jacobs has seen at least four targets in five consecutive games with 81.7% of Las Vegas’ backfield touches since its Week 6 bye. The Raiders remain fourth overall in yards per drive and sixth in points per drive, suggesting last week’s performance was just a blip on the radar rather than a sign of things ahead of a potential shootout for Week 9.

Travis Etienne ($6,300 DK, $7,600 FD)

Etienne is arguably too cheap on both sites given that he’s handled 86.5% of Jacksonville’s backfield touches the past two games, most recently registering season-highs in touches (27) and route participation (64%) in his first start with James Robinson off the team. Much like Aaron Jones, Etienne can be stacked with Lawrence since Etienne’s route rate suggests a greater mark than last week’s 9.6% target share.

Ken Walker ($6,200 DK, $8,300 FD)

Walker has admittedly entered boom-or-bust territory since he’s totaled just five targets in three starts for Rashaad Penny. But with the most broken tackles and third-most yards per game (105.3) in that span, Walker is undoubtedly in another boom spot since Arizona has permitted the league’s highest rate of explosive runs (19.1%) through Week 8. He can be played as the lone Seahawks piece in any game stacks with Kyler Murray.

Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,200 DK, $8,000 FD)

Don’t overthink it on DraftKings: Stevenson handled 85% of New England’s backfield touches in his lone start for Damien Harris (illness) this year, seeing a 14.7% target share with a route on a season-high 72.5% of dropbacks. Even if Harris were to play, note that Stevenson has recorded 15 catches alongside Harris the past two weeks.

Jamaal Williams ($5,900 DK, $7,500 FD)

If we expect the Lions to hang around at home, where Detroit has averaged 35.7 points per game compared to 10 in three contests on the road, Williams has to be viewed as a key component since he averaged 18 touches in four starts without D’Andre Swift and currently leads all running backs in carries inside the 10 (10). The Packers have also permitted the seventh-most yards after contact per attempt (3.2). Consider Williams a viable (and unique) piece to play opposite any Rodgers stacks.

Deon Jackson ($5,200 DK, $5,000 FD)

Similar to Stevenson’s outlook on DraftKings, tournament players should suck it up and play Jackson in every format on FanDuel since $5,000 every-down running backs are far and few between. There’s an argument to be made against him on DraftKings in particular since Indianapolis reverted to its sluggish 54-play form (compared to 70 plays per game in Ryan’s last three starts) in Sam Ehlinger’s first nod under center, seeing the latter target Indy’s backfield on 12.9% of his throws compared to Ryan’s voluminous 25.1% rate.

Wide Receivers

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($6,600 DK, $7,100 FD)

St. Brown’s league-winning run last year occurred with T.J. Hockenson off the field, averaging double-digit targets and eight catches in his last five starts. ARSB has also averaged 11.3 targets and 31.5% of Detroit’s team targets in his only three full games this year.

Chris Godwin ($6,200 DK, $6,700 FD)

Godwin’s targets the last three games: 12, 13, 11. More viable in cash games for his floor.

Terry McLaurin ($5,900 DK, $7,200 FD)

The Vikings have allowed the second-most receiving yards per game to receivers from the boundary and, more importantly, the third-highest rate of explosive passes (15 yards) in the league. That bodes well for McLaurin’s increased 25% target share from Taylor Heinicke after averaging just 15.9% of Washington’s targets with Carson Wentz.

D.J. Moore ($5,800 DK, $7,000 FD)

DraftKings refused to budge Moore’s salary in another juicy spot against an injury-riddled Cincinnati defense permitting the most yards per target to opposing slot receivers, where Moore has run an increased 43% of his routes since Robbie Anderson was dealt. Moore has also seen target shares of 45.4% and 30.5% without Christian McCaffrey the past two games.

Romeo Doubs ($5,300 DK, $6,100 FD)

If the Packers were to attack the Lions downfield, Doubs would undoubtedly be the beneficiary in leading the team in targets 20-yards downfield (3) the past two weeks without Allen Lazard (shoulder). Doubs’ team-high target share from last week should stick against a Detroit secondary that has allowed 13.6 yards per catch and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts.

Kalif Raymond ($4,000 DK, $5,400 FD)

Raymond has quietly averaged a 16.6% target share in place of D.J. Chark since Week 4, recording 75 receiving yards in his last two performances alone. Josh Reynolds’ likely absence increases Raymond’s opportunity as a unique piece to play across from Rodgers stacks in tournaments.

Tight Ends

Gerald Everett ($4,800 DK, $5,800 FD)

Los Angeles’ injuries have opened the door for Everett, who has totaled 16 targets in the team’s last two games, to see a larger target share against Atlanta. Even in limiting enemy tight ends to a single touchdown on the year, the Falcons have ceded the second-most catches and third-most receiving yards to the position.

Evan Engram ($3,300 DK, $5,200)

Engram has seen at least six targets in four consecutive games, averaging a 20.9% target share in that span. With no slate-breaking tight end to worry about on this slate, I’m more focused on correlating this position with my quarterback(s) as opposed to going overweight on a particular individual for his matchup.