Week 4 NFL Betting Picks: Player Props

Oct 03, 2020

dalvin cook touchdown

Week 3 Recap: Week 3 was what we live for. The column won 10-of-12 bets and the two additional discord wins made it a 12-2 (92%) week overall for +9.75 units. It doesn’t get a whole lot better than that. The crazy thing is that we were very, very close to winning every bet. We hit Golden Tate on the over 3.5 receptions but lost the over 40 yards as he went for 5/36/0 on seven targets. The process was right and he should have hit the over—in my clearly biased opinion—but it’s water under the bridge at this point. We also lost the Kenyan Drake over 77.5 rushing yards. Drake found little running room against a Lions front that had been routinely manhandled prior to this matchup. Still, he wound up five yards short of the over, though, hitting 73 yards on 18 carries. Even though he came up a bit short, the workload was there and the matchup was right for him to explode. Last week I gave out Josh Jacobs Under 95.5 yards in the discord on Friday as PointsBet started to open up player props. This week I dropped Hunter Renfrow over 48 receiving yards, which opened up everywhere else at 60 on Friday. Make sure to pop in the #props channel on the Discord Server for any easy opening bets I post on Thursday or Friday.

FanDuel Week 4 Player Props

Dalvin Cook Over 76.5 Rushing Yards (-110 )

Dalvin Cook is coming off a massive performance against the Titans where he ripped them for 181 yards on 22 carries. The Vikings seemingly found their way offensively and now draw a Texans defense ripe for the picking. Four running backs have received 8+ carries against the Texans this season:

James Conner: 18/109/1, 6.1 yards per carry, 72% rushing success rate
Mark Ingram: 9/55/1, 6.1 yards per carry, 67% rushing success rate
Clyde Edwards-Helaire: 25/138/1, 5.5 yards per carry, 56% rushing success rate
Gus Edwards: 10/73/0, 7.3 yards per carry, 50% rushing success rate

While Ingram and Edwards didn’t finish with gaudy rushing totals they certainly could have if they got the workload. The efficiency is insane. All-in-all, the Texans have allowed 5.83 yards per carry to opposing running backs.

Cook still got 12 and 14 carries in big losses Weeks 1 and 2, but racked up 22 carries last week. As long as the Vikings stay within a touchdown for most of the game, Cook should see enough carries to dismantle Houston's defense. To be fully transparent, I actually hit this at 79.5 when it opened at PointsBet for half a unit because I wanted to make sure I got a piece of the over at a number under 80 yards. There’s now a better number so anyone getting on it can take advantage of that. We have Cook projected for 97 rushing yards and I’m interested in finding some alternative overs for him to go over 100 yards as well.

Risk: 1.10 Units to Win 1 Unit