Expert Fantasy Football Mock Draft Recap: 12-Team Half-PPR (July 2023)

Training camps are in full effect, and your fantasy football draft weekend is fast approaching. The sun is shining, and it’s time to get out there and touch grass, but when you’re back inside nursing a sunburn and a cocktail, you may as well be preparing yourself to take down your league(s). I rounded up 11 other 4for4/DLF members for a nice team challenge of mocking your best possible team in July.

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More Expert Mocks: Full PPR (July) | Salary Cap (June) | Half-PPR (June)

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All ADP will be courtesy of 4for4's Multi-Site ADP tool with rankings from our current Half-PPR ranks. The full draft board will be posted at the bottom of the article, but you can jump to it here.

Roster Settings: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2 FLEX (RB/WR/TE), 7 Bench Spots

Scoring of Note: Half-PPR

Draft Participants in Order:

1. Justin Edwards - @Justin_Redwards
2. Shane Manila - @ShaneIsTheWorst
3. Jennifer Eakins - @JenEakinsNFL
4. Ted (4for4 Subscriber) - @catguy666
5. John Paulsen - @4for4_John
6. Brendan Darr - @BrendanDarr
7. John Daigle - @notJDaigle
8. Jeff - @FFJeffsmith
9. Neil Dutton - @ndutton13
10. Matt Price - @MattPriceFF
11. Brandon Niles - @2guysbrandon
12. Andrew Fleischer - @AFleischer

Rounds 1-3

Takeaways

Drafters came out hot and heavy with wide receivers, snatching 20 of them through the first 27 picks. 12-team multi-site ADP only has 12-13 of them going in the same span.

Biggest Reaches

Travis Etienne (2.11), Drake London (3.10)

Though Travis Etienne finds himself in an ascending offense, I must admit that I’m concerned about where he fits in the pecking order of touches. With little-to-no backfield competition in 2022 —particularly after the team traded away James Robinson— Etienne still finished as the RB16, due in large part to his minimal usage in the passing game. According to 4for4’s Player Stat Explorer, Trevor Lawrence targeted the running back position at the fifth-lowest clip (13.3%) among any of the 35 quarterbacks who accrued at least 200 dropbacks.

Compare that to Doug Pederson’s last two seasons with the Eagles (Carson Wentz - 18.7%, 19th and 17%, 22nd), and we shouldn’t expect the offense to start running the passing game through the running back any time soon. Add to that the backfield additions of D’Ernest Johnson and rookie Tank Bigsby, the reinstatement of Calvin Ridley, and Etiene’s touch-ceiling looks capped heading into 2023.

Falcons wide receiver Drake London was taken here at the 3.10 as the WR17 despite coming off the board around the WR25. When I asked Matt Price about his selection, he summed up his feelings about the sophomore receiver as such;

Anyone worried about Drake London’s situation shouldn’t be. Atlanta’s offense passed the ball at the fourth-lowest rate in the last decade, and with Ridder at the helm, that rate is bound to regress closer to league average. London finished his rookie campaign with a higher yards per route run than Garrett Wilson, who is being drafted nearly two full rounds earlier. London also put up the third-best targets per route run rate amongst all rookie wide receivers since 2011. I expect a second-year breakout from Drake London.

Best Values

Ja'Marr Chase (1.06), Nick Chubb (2.05)

This is just about as far as you will see Ja'Marr Chase fall in a draft. While I don’t think he is leaps and bounds above Tyreek Hill or any of the other four options sitting in front of him, you also see him going at the 1.02 in many drafts this summer. Through his two-year career, he has finished as the WR4 and WR5 in half-PPR points per game, and he missed 30% of the 2022 season while dealing with a hip injury. While Hill has proven again and again that he is the most explosive receiver in the league, there’s a chance Chase could continue to ascend while also operating as a better end-zone target with a better quarterback.

In a sharp draft, it’s hard to find many players dropping too far in this early segment. With that said, getting Nick Chubb near the middle of the second round is a great pick-up. As one of the best “pure” runners in the sport, Nick Chubb is going to benefit in spades with Kareem Hunt moving on. Hunt accrued much of his fantasy running back points in the passing game, including the 166 targets he earned in his four seasons with Cleveland. I think Chubb’s an easy click above Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor, the two backs that went directly in front of him.

Rounds 4-7

Takeaways

Because of the surge of WRs coming off the board early, quarterbacks slid a little bit further, with four teams grabbing their lead signal-caller in the fourth round. Regarding ADP, five QBs have typically come off the board by the 4.01.

Biggest Reaches

J.K. Dobbins (4.09), Brandin Cooks (7.01)

I am admittedly much lower on J.K. Dobbins than others, but I’ve been attempting to avoid him when possible, as my minuscule 2.8% exposure in Underdog drafts will attest to. There’s a much better than 3% chance that Dobbins could turn into a league winner, but I have my misgivings. The relationship between the team and Dobbins is at the forefront, with the running back still remaining absent from training camp and the Ravens responding by signing veteran free agent Melvin Gordon. For those writing off the Gordon signing as simply a “camp body,” that can be explained away with his $3.1M contract. Dobbins has missed 27 games since becoming the 55th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, and he’s a spicy pick in the fourth round, even with new offensive coordinator Todd Monken entering the building.

Going over a full round ahead of current ADP, there’s a chance that the drafter (me) who took Brandin Cooks with the first pick of the seventh round should have zigged while the rest of the league zagged. As mentioned, this was a very WR-heavy draft at this point, and although I quite clearly overpaid per ADP, he was taken as the WR37, only two spots ahead of his positional ADP. Playing with a far inferior offense (and quarterback), Cooks still managed to finish as the WR39 in 2022, essentially making his average draft position his floor outcome.

The 30-year-old Cooks has a wide range of outcomes (many of them poor), but I don’t mind that kind of insecurity from my team’s WR4.

Best Values

Josh Allen (4.06), Kenneth Walker (5.11)

Quarterbacks lagged a little behind in this month’s exercise, and we see Josh Allen slipping all the way into the fourth round. Throw Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson in here as great values right after him, as these three drafters now have a leg up on most of the league at the quarterback position, and they were able to load up on three high-level skill position players before pulling the trigger.

Regardless of what you think about Zach Charbonnet’s ability to eat into Kenneth Walker’s touch share, grabbing him at the end of the fifth round is what we like to call “good process.” I asked drafter Brandon Niles how he felt about the pick;

I love Ken Walker. I should send a thank you card to the Seahawks for drafting Zach Charbonnet and plummeting Walker's ADP all the way down to the middle of the fourth round. I'll take him at cost, but he's a no-brainer at the end of the fifth. Seattle likes to run the ball, and while Charbonnet will certainly eat into Walker's touches, I think he'll still see double-digits. With Walker's ability to make big plays happen and his nose for the end zone, 10-15 touches per game should be plenty enough for him to return value at ADP. Plus, he'll have some huge spike weeks.

Rounds 8-11

Takeaways

Teams with pass-heavy offensive tendencies are now seeing their running backs come off the board, with drafters aiming to capture some of the upside provided by an above-average offense. That pool of backs includes; Devon Achane, Jerick McKinnon, and James Cook, to name a few.

Biggest Reaches

Khalil Herbert (8.02), Jerick McKinnon (8.10)

Khalil Herbert is a near-guarantee to lead his backfield in touches on one of —if not the— most run-heavy offenses in the NFL. So, what gives? How can I consider him a reach all the way back in the eighth round? Well, even though I anticipate him out-rushing (and out-receiving, for what it’s worth) rookie selection Roschon Johnson, I still don’t think his piece of the pie will be that juicy. Herbert had an incredible 21 touches per game when David Montgomery —who the team allowed to walk in free agency— was out last season, but only 8.7 per game when the team had a fully-healthy backfield.

With no receiving game to speak of, I’d rather take a stab at A.J. Dillon or James Cook, who both went after him.

Not to hammer on every running back who went in the eighth round, but Jerrick McKinnon also came off the board ahead of ADP. I asked Jennifer Eakins to wax poetic on her selection;

I likely grabbed Jerick McKinnon a tad early in this draft, but with this crew, I really wanted to secure a back with RB2 potential since I waited until the fifth round to take my first rusher. In any points per reception format, Jet is appealing as a member of the high-potent Chiefs offense and should serve as 1B to Isiah Pacheco's 1A. Our own resident forecaster John Paulsen has McKinnon projected for 57 receptions which is the fifth-highest among all RBs. I like his potential to smash his RB40 ADP.

Best Values

Trevor Lawrence (8.09), James Cook (8.11)

With so many quarterbacks going in the thick of the draft, Trevor Lawrence floated all the way into the back half of the eighth round, even though he has a clear-cut path to possibly scoring as much as the quarterbacks he’s sandwiched in-between: Justin Herbert, Geno Smith, and Dak Prescott. With Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram, Lawrence may have the most underrated receiving group in the league, particularly with the WR2 and WR3 finally syncing into roles they were meant to play.

There’s not a ton of upside for James Cook in either the passing game (Josh Allen doesn’t target RBs) or at the goal line (GL specialists Damien Harris and Latavius Murray on the team), but there’s still something to be said about taking the clear-cut rushing leader on one of the team’s best offenses. There’s a chance that the Bills' minimal RB target share goes almost entirely to Cook, with Nyheim Hines out for the entire 2023 season.

Rounds 12-15

Takeaways

With no defenses or kickers in this particular mock draft, contestants are loading up on their bench, with a few QB2s sprinkled in. Russell Wilson, Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones, and Tua Tagovailoa provided four of our teams with some insurance at their “onesie” position. As the football world waits for once-great fantasy producers to sign with a team, drafters took each of Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliot, and Leonard Fournette in this range.

Best Values

Allen Lazard (12.04), Zamir White (14.08)

Even if Allen Lazard is nothing more than a catch-and-fall guy for quarterback Aaron Rodgers, there is clear upside for him to take control of the WR2 role on the Jets. His explosive games will be few and far between, but as the 60th wide receiver on the board, his price clearly reflects that.

With the Josh Jacobs/Raiders situation seemingly coming to an impasse, grabbing his immediate backup with essentially your last pick in a draft is simply a good idea. Zamir White got basically no run at all in his rookie season, with Jacobs handling 393 touches over the 2023 season, but with only veteran journeyman Ameer Abdullah and special-teamer Brandon Bolden standing in his way, White would be the favorite if Jacobs is not on the field in Week 1.

Rookie Costs

Quarterback: Anthony Richardson (QB14, 14.03)

Running Backs (8): Bijan Robinson (RB3, 1.08), Jahmyr Gibbs (RB13, 3.04), Zach Charbonnet (RB39, 9.12), Roschon Johnson (RB43, 10.05), Devon Achane (RB31, 8.07), Tank Bigsby (RB51, 11.08), Kendre Miller (RB49, 11.04), Tyjae Spears (RB56, 13.02)

Wide Receivers (8): Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR29, 5.10), Jordan Addison (WR30, 5.12), Quentin Johnston (WR40, 8.03), Zay Flowers (WR45, 9.03), Jonathan Mingo (WR58, 11.12), Rashee Rice (WR59, 12.01), Jayden Reed (WR57, 11.09), Marvin Mims (WR75, 15.08)

Tight Ends (2): Dalton Kincaid (TE15, 13.12), Sam LaPorta (TE18, 15.03)

Final Draft Board

Bottom Line

• There were 68 total RBs drafted and 77 WRs.
• Sixteen QBs were selected in this mock, with four teams drafting a backup.
• A whopping seven of the 12 teams drafted a second tight end, leaving the total number selected at 19.
• The longest any team waited to draft an RB was 6.01 (Cam Akers), while the furthest any manager waited to select a WR was 5.09 (DeAndre Hopkins).
• The offseason hype for many of the rookies, namely running backs, has died down over the summer. In this month's mock, we saw far fewer rookie RBs even come off the board, though two rookie tight ends finally found their way on a fantasy roster.