Expert Fantasy Football Mock Draft Recap: 12-Team Half-PPR (June 2023)

The Summer months are heating up, and so is the fervor for the fantasy football season. The sun is shining and it’s time to get out there and touch grass, but when you’re back inside nursing a sunburn and a cocktail, you may as well be preparing yourself to take down your league(s). I rounded up 11 other 4for4/DLF members for a nice team challenge of mocking your best possible team in June.

All ADP will be from 4for4’s Underdog tool with rankings from our current ranks. The full draft board will be posted at the bottom of the article, but you can jump to it here.

Roster Settings: 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1 FLEX (RB/WR/TE), 7 Bench Spots

Scoring of Note: Half-PPR

Draft Participants in Order:

1. Brandon Niles - @2guysbandon
2. Neil Dutton - @ndutton13
3. Justin Edwards - @Justin_Redwards
4. Chris - @ChrisGeeeeee
5. Aaron St Denis - @ffmadscientist
6. Andrew Fleischer - @afleischer
7. Brendan Darr - @BrendanDarr
8. Jen Eakins - @JenEakinsNFL
9. Matt Price - @MattPriceFF
10. Mike Woellert - @Mike_Woellert
11. Rob Lorge - @RobFFSlayer
12. John Daigle - @notJDaigle

Rounds 1-3

Takeaways

The thirst for that tippy-top high-end quarterback production is alive and well again, with four QBs being selected by the 3.05. While this isn’t as high as the position was going 7-8 years ago, there is a huge gap in quarterback drafting, as we will see when we fall deeper down this draft board. There are only a few quarterbacks capable of consistently hitting 20-25 fantasy points per game, and much of that depends on rushing yardage and rushing touchdowns. The true dual-threat options in the league offer enough padding in FPPG to forego the skill positions for another round.

Biggest Reaches

Patrick Mahomes (3.02), Christian Kirk (3.10)

This feels a little early on Mahomes, as he goes ahead of Jalen Hurts early in the third round as the second quarterback off the board. Though he offers a little bit of rushing game juice from time to time when absolutely necessary to keep drives alive, he doesn’t have the type of top-end ability that Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson have with his legs. That said, he’s also the best quarterback in the league, and Dutton explains his selection as such:

Patrick Mahomes is the best football player on the planet. He routinely racks up a boatload of fantasy points with less than top-tier talent at wide receiver, making him a hard player to stack (unless you can land Travis Kelce, which I didn’t). But he’ll still offer high-end fantasy production, so I don’t have the headache of streaming at QB.

As the WR16, Christian Kirk feels like a massive overpay, and he could have been easily gotten when the board came back around. Kirk finished the 2022 season as the WR18 in FPPG (11.8) and now Calvin Ridley —a former fantasy WR1— returns to action in his first year with the Jaguars. Kirk is currently ranked as the WR26 in our half-PPR rankings.

Best Values

Cooper Kupp (1.08), Rhamondre Stevenson (2.11)

Rhamondre Stevenson could absorb a vast majority of the running back targets this season, in addition to a monster early-down role. Stevenson has the ability to build on a great 2022 season as a pass-catcher, and with some further touchdown upside, he’s a real option to become an RB1 for fantasy managers this year. This was Dutton’s reasoning behind the pick at the end of the second round:

I don’t love the Patriots on offense in general, and I know they like to toy with fantasy players by tinkering with their backfield. But I don’t see that Rhamondre is not the engine of the offense unless Bill O'Brien has a massive ego fit. He showed last season he can contribute in the passing game as well as the ground game, and for that reason, I do not hate taking him where I did.

Saying that a top-eight selection is one of the best values in the beginning stages of the draft may seem silly, but Cooper Kupp falling all the way to the eighth pick is fantastic value. Kupp was the WR1 in fantasy points per game (18.2) in the nine games he played, leading all receivers in target share (33.3%) in the eight games he played with Matthew Stafford.

Eakins gets a steal here and is able to build an insanely tough 1-2 punch at the top of her receiver depth chart.

Rounds 4-7

Takeaways

Essentially, the entire second tier of quarterbacks reside here, the last options that truly have a chance to finish as a top-four option at the position if everything breaks right. The offensive environment of Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Trevor Lawrence can help carry them to incredible fantasy heights, while Justin Fields’ prowess as a running back is where his limitless ceiling comes from.

Biggest Reaches

Dameon Pierce (4.08), Mike Evans (5.01)

During the 2022 season, the coaching staff that drafted Dameon Pierce allotted him 75.3% of the team’s carries, the third-highest mark in the NFL. That majority share of the backfield netted him 11.6 half-PPR points per game, a mark that made him the RB23. This year he will battle it out with veteran option Devin Singletary, who signed a one-year, $3.75M contract this offseason. Singletary offers a redundant asset to Pierce, succeeding in similar areas of the run game while contributing a middling option in the receiving game.

On paper, options such as Aaron Jones —who went four picks later— or Travis Etienne —who went 13 picks later— offer much more spiked-week potential as proven pass-catchers.

The two Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receivers come off the board back-to-back here at the beginning of the fifth round, and, personally, both of them may be going too early here. If I had to choose, I would prefer Chris Godwin, who can make up some of his fantasy ceiling without a monster TD season, while Evans has historically relied on the end zone for his big games.

Evans is coming off a wildly impressive **nine** straight 1,000-yard season, but his touchdowns have gone from 13-to-14-to-6 over the last three years, and the 2023 offense doesn’t project too well without Tom Brady at the helm. Treylon Burks and Michael Pittman Jr. came off the board 21 and 22, picks later, respectively, and they offer very similar fantasy projections in similarly projected offenses.

Best Values

Justin Fields (5.11), David Montgomery (7.07)

According to our best ball rankings and tiers, “Chicago's 21.9 pass attempts per game last year were the fewest of the 21st century and the first time a team averaged less than 23 since the 1979 Chiefs. ” It would not be far-fetched to assume that Justin Fields can improve as a passer in his third season in the NFL while maintaining the upside he’s receiving with his legs.

To help coincide with a higher passer rate (since it really can’t get any lower), the Bears added right guard Nate Davis and wide receiver DJ Moore in free agency. During the NFL Draft, they spent their first-round pick on right tackle Darnell Wright and a fourth on field-stretching wide receiver Tyler Scott.

As for David Montgomery, the seventh-round draft capital is fine, but where he really becomes a value is when you see that he is the 28th running back off the board but currently ranks as the RB21 in 4for4’s half-PPR rankings. Not only can Montgomery easily fill in the old Jamaal Williams role in Detroit, but he can do so more efficiently than the old guard. He can not only handle the ball around the goal line, but he is also a better runner between-the-20s.

Even after spending the first-round draft capital on Jahmyr Gibbs during the NFL Draft, Montgomery should still get plenty of work in the passing game, where he’s averaged around 50 targets a year over the past three seasons.

Rounds 8-11

Takeaways

With most of the “onesie” positions filled across the league at this point, we start to see most of the picks bulking up the depth of the running back and wide receiver positions. Only two quarterbacks and four tight ends come off the board over these four rounds, leaving the other 42 picks to go to RB and WR.

Biggest Reaches

Dawson Knox (9.04), Donovan Peoples-Jones (10.03)

The TE1 job in Buffalo is sure to be Dawson Knox’s in Week 1, but it’s difficult to see him holding on to it for the entirety of the season. The Bills paid a first-round premium on Dalton Kincaid, and though he will operate a ton out of the slot, he will likely be the preferred target, even when both “tight ends” are on the field at the same time. Kincaid led draft-eligible tight ends with 2.5 yards per route run in his final year at Utah. Knox should be considered more in the TE15 range.

Donovan Peoples-Jones typically goes in the 13th-15th round range, so seeing him come off the board early in the 10th round is a bit shocking. In a full 17-game season last year, Peoples-Jones earned an 18.9% target share that he cashed in for a 61-839-3 finish. That was good enough for 7.7 half-PPR points per game (WR54). That’s right about where he went here, as the 52nd wide receiver off the board. The only problem with projecting him with the same usage is the offseason addition of Elijah Moore into the slot (we have him projected for 56 catches) and the additions of two outside receivers; speed-freak Marquise Goodwin and third-round rookie Cedric Tillman.

Best Values

Rashaad Penny (10.10), Nico Collins (11.08)

Rashaad Penny has the floor of playing in only a handful of games but a ceiling of being the main back on arguably the best rushing team in the National Football League. The Philadelphia Eagles have ranked second (2022) and third (2021) in rush attempts out of shotgun over the last two seasons, while Penny has ranked first (2022) and fifth (2021) in yards per contact out of shotgun in that same two-year sample. He also led the league in yards after contact per attempt (4.23) in 2022. If we were lucky enough to get a full year of health, he has the upside to be a league-winner out of the double-digit rounds.

Buying into a potential Year 3 breakout from Nico Collins with the 128th pick of the draft feels like easy money. To say that the 6’4”, 215-pound Collins has been playing in a dysfunctional offense since coming off the board in the third round of the 2021 NFL Draft is an understatement. The Texans aren’t likely to be world-burners in 2023, but Collins will have the benefit of growing with rookie QB C.J. Stroud as the team’s de facto WR1 if Robert Woods doesn’t return to his former glory. Collins has a 25.4% target per route run with Brandin Cooks off the field. Compare that to 18.1% when the veteran was still in Houston and healthy.

Rounds 12-15

Takeaways

There will for sure be mocks with both kickers and defenses as we get closer to Fantasy Draft Weekend, but for now, you’ll notice that we’ve skipped the positions in this mock to squeeze in as many player takes and ADP talk as we can. While some of the players you see here will likely be waiver wire fodder in a full draft with D/ST and Ks (particularly each of the last four running backs), it’s still helpful to see who the fantasy community values at the ends of drafts.

Best Values

Tyler Boyd (12.06), K.J. Osborn (14.07)

The entire league would be clamoring over themselves to pick up Tyler Boyd if there was a rumor about a tweak of an injury from Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins. Darr snags that insurance policy all the way back here as the 65th wide receiver off the board.

K.J. Osborn was taken so shockingly late that it’s almost like he wasn’t on some peoples’ draft lists. Fleischer gets an arguable WR5 for the 2023 season as the 76th receiver off the board. Over the last two seasons, there were five instances in which Adam Thielen missed all or the majority of the game. According to 4for4’s Market Share Splits App, Osborn averaged a 19.2% target share, a 40.0% touchdown share, and 10.6 half-PPR fantasy points per game in that sample. The elephant in the room here is first-round rookie Jordan Addison, but Osborn may have proven that he belongs high in the target rotation as this new wide receiver room shapes up.

Biggest Surprise

The news coming out of camp has been so consistently negative for Giants rookie wide receiver Jalin Hyatt that he has fallen from a 10th-round WR4/5 to completely undrafted in this 15-round mock. With Parris Campbell working as the WR3 and Hyatt working almost exclusively with the third-team offense, fantasy managers are more comfortable letting him start the fantasy season on the waiver wire.

Other rookies who had double-digit ADPs last month but went undrafted in our June mock include Michael Mayer, Dalton Kincaid, and Israel Abanikanda.

Rookie Costs

Quarterback: Anthony Richardson (QB11, 12.09)

Running Backs (9): Bijan Robinson (RB3, 1.05), Jahymr Gibbs (RB17, 4.09), Kendre Miller (RB27, 7.05), Zach Charbonnet (RB32, 8.04), Roschon Johnson (RB36, 9.05), Devon Achane (RB38, 9.07), Tank Bigsby (RB46, 11.09), Chase Brown (RB59, 15.05), DeWayne McBride (RB60, 15.08)

Wide Receivers (10): Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR33, 6.08), Jordan Addison (WR36, 7.04), Zay Flowers (WR43, 8.08), Quenton Johnston (WR44, 8.09), Marvin Mims (WR56, 10.08), Jonathan Mingo (WR59, 11.04), Josh Downs (WR66, 12.08), Rashee Rice (WR71, 13.05), Jayden Reed (WR74, 14.02), Nathaniel Dell (WR83, 15.07)

Tight Ends: (none)

Final Draft Board

Bottom Line

• There were 61 total RBs drafted and 84 WRs.
• Sixteen QBs were selected in this mock, with four teams drafting a backup.
• A whopping seven of the 12 teams drafted a second tight end, leaving the total number selected at 19.
• The longest any team waited to draft an RB was 4.05 (Miles Sanders), while the furthest any manager waited to select a WR was 3.10 (Keenan Allen).
• Rookies are already shooting up draft boards in the middle rounds, with multiple options jumping from the deep double-digit rounds all the way to the eighth and ninth rounds. Expect this to persist as buzz continues to grow through the summer months.