Paulsen's Players: Round-by-Round Fantasy Football Draft Targets & Shy-Away Players

Aug 25, 2023

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This year, while I’ve dabbled with RB/RB and WR/WR starts, I’ve typically been implementing a combination of strategies that include Hero RB, Stud TE, and Late-Round QB. It will usually begin with a running back in the first round, but there are Hero RB candidates available into the third or fourth round this season.

I went into great detail on a position-by-position basis in my annual Draft Day Strategery article, but now I’m going to go round-by-round and highlight some targets, strategies, and “shy-away” players to avoid.

Note: I’ll include our Multi-Site ADP and positional ADP ranks to provide an idea of the availability of each player in any given round. These draft targets assume a half-PPR scoring format, though small adjustments can be made for full-PPR. Be sure to click on the player’s name to see my “Draft Note” for an explanation of why I’m either high or low on a particular player.

More Player Targets & Fades: TJ's Targets | TJ's Fades | John Paulsen's Draft Day Strategery | John Daigle's Fades | John Daigle's Targets

2023 Fantasy Football Round-by-Round Draft Strategy

Rounds 1-2

The first two rounds have something for everybody. Managers who want to start WR/WR or RB/RB, or any combination of the two can find safe, quality players throughout the first two rounds. Managers who want to pair Travis Kelce with a running back or receiver can easily do so as well.

My top receiver is Justin Jefferson (ADP 1, WR1) and my top back is Austin Ekeler (ADP 4, RB2), so if either player is available in the top half of the first round, I’ll likely pounce and then look to take a back or a receiver, respectively in the second round to start my Hero RB build.

The middle of the first round is a good spot to nab Travis Kelce (ADP 5, TE1) since that’s a draft position unlikely to have access to Mark Andrews in the third round, especially in sharp leagues where Andrews is typically going to go around the 2/3 turn.

If I’m picking later in the first round, I like to target Nick Chubb (ADP 10, RB4) and pair him with a receiver in the second round or perhaps Tony Pollard (ADP 14, RB6) or Derrick Henry (ADP 15, RB7) if I elect to go with an RB/RB start.

All of the receivers I have ranked in the top 13 (half-PPR) are really appealing, with no-worry type picks. The only exception is the highly productive Tyreek Hill (ADP 6, WR3) who could still face a (short?) suspension for his altercation with a worker at a marina. He has settled out of court with the complainant, but the NFL could still levy a suspension. It’s just something to keep in mind.

Shy-Away: Jonathan Taylor (ADP 21, RB8) and Josh Jacobs (ADP 23, RB9) are still going in the second round. Jacobs’ situation now looks a little better than Taylor’s as there were reports he was expected to show up before Week 1. Meanwhile, Taylor is at a crossroads with the Colts–the team has given him permission to seek a trade. Oh, and he may also be injured. I’m steering clear.

Rounds 3-4

The third round still has some fine and relatively safe picks, including Chris Olave (ADP 25, WR12), DeVonta Smith (ADP 26, WR13), Mark Andrews (ADP 27, TE2), Tee Higgins (ADP 28, WR14), Calvin Ridley (ADP 36, WR16), Jahmyr Gibbs (ADP 35, RB14), Lamar Jackson (ADP 32, QB4), and Rhamondre Stevenson (ADP 31, RB12).

As far as targets go, I’m most interested in Olave, Smith, Andrews, and Gibbs.

I love the idea of adding Andrews to a roster that already has, say, Ekeler and Garett Wilson (ADP 19, WR10).

In the fourth round, only a couple of players stand out–Aaron Jones (ADP 38, RB15) and T.J. Hockenson (ADP 43, TE3). I’d be comfortable with Jones as my RB1 if I started with 2-3 receivers and maybe a tight end or a quarterback.

Shy-Away: I’m not interested in Najee Harris (ADP 29, RB10) or Travis Etienne (ADP 33, RB13) due to usage concerns with Jaylen Warren and Tank Bigsby, respectively. I don’t hate Amari Cooper (ADP 40, WR18) or Deebo Samuel (ADP 37, WR17), but the fourth round is not a great spot for a receiver. Cooper didn’t produce with Deshaun Watson last season, and Samuel, while a serviceable pick at this point, isn’t going to see a huge market share with a healthy Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle.

Rounds 5-6

Per our Multi-Site ADP, the fifth round is packed with intriguing players at all positions. Alexander Mattison (ADP 57, RB20) and Dameon Pierce (ADP 52, RB18) stand out at running back, while DeAndre Hopkins (ADP 51, WR23), Terry McLaurin (ADP 53, WR24), and Drake London (ADP 59, WR25) are the receivers I’d target here, along with a couple of pass-catchers going in the next round. We may be able to get a short-term discount on McLaurin depending on how his toe injury affects his ADP, but I’m still in on him.

Darren Waller (ADP 54, TE5) and Dallas Goedert (ADP 58, TE6) are both appealing at the tight end position. If I don’t have a tight end by the fifth round, I’ll probably wait until the seventh or eighth to target Pat Freiermuth (ADP 91, TE9)–he was very productive with Kenny Pickett last season.

In the sixth round, two players–Tyler Lockett (ADP 67, WR29) and Diontae Johnson (ADP 70, WR31)–really stand out. I’d actually pull the trigger on either in the fifth round if necessary.

Rachaad White (ADP 71, RB25) and James Cook (ADP 73, RB26) have a chance to deliver solid to high-end RB2 numbers in feature roles for the Bucs and Bills.

Shy-Away: Jerry Jeudy (ADP 49, WR21) was a fade even before his hamstring injury. I’m completely out now.

Rounds 7-8

The seventh round has some big fantasy names along with a few emerging players.

Alvin Kamara (ADP 74, RB27) is going later due to his three-game suspension, but he’d make a fine RB3 or as part of an RB2-by-committee strategy. Isiah Pacheco (ADP 77, RB29) and David Montgomery (ADP 78, RB30) are also attractive picks here.

At receiver, Jahan Dotson (ADP 84, WR36) is trending up thanks to a strong preseason, McLaurin’s toe injury, and Sam Howell’s impressive play. Michael Pittman (ADP 83, WR35), Mike Evans (ADP 73, WR32), Marquise Brown (ADP 82, WR34), and George Pickens (ADP 79, WR33) make the seventh round a good spot for a receiver.

Evan Engram (ADP 81, TE8) is a serviceable tight end pick in this range, though I’d probably try to nab a Pittsburgh tight end a little later.

In the eighth round, Jordan Addison (ADP 89, WR39) is trending up. He and Gabe Davis (ADP 88, WR38) are appealing picks here. We’re getting close to a drop-off at receiver, so managers may want to have four on the roster by the end of this round.

Khalil Herbert (ADP 90, RB32) is my top running back target at this point. I think he holds off the competition in Chicago and has a good year. Brian Robinson (ADP 96, RB34) isn’t a bad fallback option if I miss out on Herbert. He dominated touches down the stretch last season.

Shy-Away: I don’t want any part of Deshaun Watson (ADP 75, QB9) at his positional ADP. I’m more confident in several players going way later than this. The Philly backfield is murky, so D'Andre Swift (ADP 80, RB31), while talented, isn’t a target this year.

Rounds 9-10

For those managers who have taken a Late-Round QB approach, the ninth round is a great spot to pick up a passer. Geno Smith (ADP 103, QB16), Daniel Jones (ADP 98, QB14), and Anthony Richardson (ADP 101, QB15) are my three favorite late-round values.

At receiver, Zay Flowers (ADP 106, WR44) and Michael Thomas (ADP 99, WR41) stand out as the last couple of appealing picks before a drop-off at the position.

Jamaal Williams (ADP 104, RB36) is a good Zero RB pick since he’ll likely see starter touches while Kamara is suspended for three games. Zach Charbonnet (ADP 107, RB37) is intriguing as an attrition play. He’d likely blow up if anything were to happen to Kenneth Walker.

Things start to get tough in the 10th round as there is a drop-off at receiver and the (real-world) RB1s are all seemingly off the board.

Skyy Moore (ADP 109, WR46) and Elijah Moore (ADP 119, WR50) have some appeal in new roles. JuJu Smith-Schuster (ADP 117, WR49) has a good floor and would be a good spot starter, but he doesn’t have a whole lot of upside.

Rashaad Penny (ADP 114, RB39) is probably the most talented runner in the Eagles’ backfield, but he’s not even a sure thing to make the roster at this point. Zero RB managers could target Samaje Perine (ADP 110, RB38) or Jerick McKinnon (ADP 118, RB40) as potential passing-down backs who could produce in a pinch.

Dalton Schultz (ADP 113, TE11) offers some boring production as the 11th tight end off the board. He’s a threat to lead the Texans in targets and C.J. Stroud was the most accurate passer in this year’s quarterback class.

Rounds 11-12

The 11th round is a good time to pick up a tight end, either the “boring” production of Tyler Higbee (ADP 126, TE14), who seems destined to see 100+ targets again or the upside of Chigoziem Okonwko (ADP 131, TE15), who led his position in yards per route run last season.

Nico Collins (ADP 128, WR53) stands out as a great upside option at receiver. He was pretty good last season and should be getting a big upgrade at quarterback in C.J. Stroud. He has a chance to lead the Texans in targets this year.

By this point in the draft, I’m usually just ignoring ADP completely and targeting players I like the most. Jaylen Warren (ADP 143, RB47) and Tank Bigsby (ADP 144, RB48) pop out as a couple of players who should have weekly value combined with RB2 upside if anything were to happen to Najee Harris or Travis Etienne, respectively.

Shy-Away: Devon Achane (ADP 124, RB42) hasn’t made any headway in Miami and the Dolphins still seem to be trying to make a splash for a new RB (Jonathan Taylor maybe?).

Late-Round Fantasy Football Targets

Once the draft hits the 13th round, here are several other players I’m interested in at each position.

Quarterbacks

Sam Howell (ADP 186, QB27)
Jordan Love (ADP 154, QB23)
Kyler Murray (ADP 156, QB24)
C.J. Stroud (ADP 220, QB31)

Running Backs

Kenneth Gainwell (ADP 148, RB50)
Tyjae Spears (ADP 188, RB58)
Zamir White (ADP 189, RB59)
Kareem Hunt (ADP 204, RB63)
Ty Chandler (ADP 225, RB64)
Jerome Ford (ADP 249, RB67)

Receivers

Isaiah Hodgins (ADP 196, WR69)
Zay Jones (ADP 171, WR61)
Marvin Mims (ADP 216, WR73)
Rondale Moore (ADP 177, WR63)
Tank Dell (ADP 206, WR71)
Van Jefferson (ADP 221, WR76)
Jayden Reed (ADP 224, WR78)
Rashid Shaheed (ADP 226, WR79)
Michael Wilson (ADP 260, WR89)
Mecole Hardman (ADP 268, WR91)

Tight Ends

Sam LaPorta (ADP 147, TE19)
Jake Ferguson (ADP 161, TE21)
Irv Smith Jr. (ADP 163, TE22)
Luke Musgrave (ADP 164, TE23)
Hunter Henry (ADP 192, TE26)

Defenses and Kickers

Readers can find my defensive rankings on the site. From a value standpoint, the Browns and Jaguars are appealing. Cleveland was the D/ST8 last year, spent the third-most on defense in free agency, and has a favorable schedule. The Jaguars finished D/ST6 and have a great schedule, though they play the Chiefs in Week 2 and the Bills in Week 5, which is not optimal. The Saints start the season with the Titans, Panthers, Packers, Buccaneers, Patriots and Texans.

At kicker, managers can get my No. 7 kicker, Jason Sanders, very late. He has a big leg and Miami should have a great offense. Jason Myers, Jake Elliott, Greg Zuerlein, and Brandon McManus are also going very late and they all should be kicking for good offenses.

As always, at this point in draft season, I’m updating the projections on a near-daily basis and can’t always keep articles like this perfectly updated. So be sure to look at the rankings as you put your draft plan together.

Happy drafting!