Best NFL Futures Odds & Bets for All 32 Teams
A case can be made that tying up funds in NFL futures for four-plus months is a pretty -EV way to handle your money. But let's be honest. You've made more egregious -EV decisions in your life than getting down on the Vikings to make the playoffs in August.
We wrapped up our divisional preview series on Move The Line this week, and a ton of work goes into that on my end. I deep dive into all aspects of each roster, along with scheduling anomalies in preparation for each episode. I feel as dialed in as I can be before the season's opening night at the end of that process.
My goal with this article is to go division by division, giving you my elevator pitch for each team, along with what I think is the best way to bet on them in the futures market.
To make it easier for you, we've created a tool where you can search all NFL Futures.
NFC East Futures Bets
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys surprisingly maintained continuity within their coaching staff this offseason. Mike McCarthy is back for his third season, and there's no pressure on him with all the "Sean Payton to Dallas" rumors swirling around. In addition, Kellen Moore and Dan Quinn are back, despite heavy interest in the offseason from the rest of the league. In 2021, Dallas took advantage of an easy schedule, leading the league in total points scored, while an opportunistic defense jumped to third in EPA per play allowed.
Unfortunately, though, both sides of the ball got weaker this offseason. Randy Gregory left in free agency, and Dallas did little to replace him. Plus, a lot of the Cowboys' defensive success was predicated on turnovers, which are not statistically stable year-over-year. In fact, Trevon Diggs allowed 11.2 yards per target last season, up significantly from his rookie mark of 8.6 yards, but his 11 interceptions were headline-worthy.
Offensively, they're not nearly as deep among the pass-catching core. Unproven commodities like Jalen Tolbert, Noah Brown, and James Washington will be asked to fill the void left behind by Amari Cooper's departure and Michael Gallup's annual I.R. visit. I think a playoff berth is still likely, but repeating as divisional champs is far from a lock.
Best Bet: NFC East Second Place (+175, BetMGM)
Philadelphia Eagles
There are still legitimate questions about Jalen Hurts' ability to lead this team beyond a first-round playoff exit. However, the experience gained from last season will certainly help, as will the continuity among the coaching staff. The front office has also surrounded Hurts with an elite supporting cast on both sides of the ball.
The Eagles have one of the league's premier offensive lines and a loaded stable of running backs. They also added A.J. Brown this offseason, who pairs nicely with last year's top draft pick DeVonta Smith, creating one of the best young receiving duos in the league.
They injected talented on the defensive side of the ball as well. We saw an increasingly aggressive approach from rookie DC Jonathan Gannon last season, and his job got a bit easier with Haason Reddick, James Bradberry, and the Georgia Bulldog duo of Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean added to the roster this offseason. That's a huge influx of talent. Philadelphia finished 29th in pressure rate and 28th in adjusted sack rate in 2021, but this group should be markedly improved.
With one of the easiest forecasted schedules in 2022, the Eagles are set up nicely if they can stay healthy.
Best Bet: NFC East Division Winner (+170, FanDuel)
Washington Commanders
The expectations were pretty high for 'The Football Team' heading into last season. They were coming off of a playoff berth and had young talent on both sides of the ball. The big offseason splash, signing journeyman quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, was supposedly going to push them over the top. Boy, how that turned quickly. Fitzpatrick was lost for the season in Week 1, and injuries also massively impacted the defense, with Chase Young and Montez Sweat missing nearly half the season.
On top of that, Washington played the league's toughest slate of opponents, including nine would-be playoff teams. However, this season's schedule appears to be much lighter, projected as the sixth-easiest based on opponent preseason win totals. The plan to improve the league's worst pass defense on third and fourth downs appears to center on remaining healthy. They're running back almost the entire unit, including defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio.
Offensively, they continue to play musical chairs at quarterback, and this time the music stopped on Carson Wentz. I believe Wentz is an upgrade over Taylor Heinicke, but I'm not sure by how much. There are more questions than answers here, and training camp reports have been troubling.
Best Bet: Under 8.5 Wins (-170, FanDuel)
New York Giants
The Giants are looking to turn the page on the Joe Judge era as quickly as possible, and the hiring of Brian Daboll should make that easier. Daboll and new offensive coordinator Mike Kafka come over from Buffalo, where they were able to take a big, athletic, toolsy quarterback and turn him into one of the league's best weapons. They'll be looking to try that again, or at least an approximation of that, with Daniel Jones. They also coaxed Wink Martindale out of retirement to handle the defense, but his job will be a little more difficult.
An NFL-caliber offensive line will be a welcomed site for Giants fans this season, with three new starters up front, including first-round pick Evan Neal. Daboll's Bills were among the league leaders in pass rate over expectation (PROE) last season, so you don't have to squint too hard to envision improvements from the Joe Judge and Jason Garrett-run system of seasons past. Though, if you want to show Judge and Garrett grace, the Giants had the third-highest rate of games lost due to injury last season. Jones, Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, and Sterling Shepard all missed sizable chucks of 2021.
Defensively, this team is going to struggle. If Daboll can turn the offense around, the Giants are an over waiting to happen. This defense will struggle to slow anyone down. There's talent among the front seven, but the secondary is among the worst in the league, and it's difficult to hide that in today's NFL.
The bull case for the Giants centers around their schedule, which is the easiest in the league.
Best Bet: Over 6.5 Wins (-130, BetMGM)
NFC North Futures Bets
Green Bay Packers
The Packers are coming off a third consecutive division title, spearheaded by back-to-back MVP seasons from Aaron Rodgers. However, 2021 was indeed the last dance. Davante Adams is now in Las Vegas, and how Green Bay handles that fact will go a long way in determining how this division plays out. Having an elite play-caller in Matt LaFleur and an all-time great under center certainly helps soften the blow, but the wide receiver room is a massive question mark entering Week 1. However, there are a lot of other things to like about this roster, which is why they're still the favorites in the division.
Their defense could be outstanding. Green Bay dealt with a ton of key injuries last season, most notably to Jaire Alexander. The Packers also used two first-round picks on Georgia Bulldog defenders Quay Walker and Devonte Wyatt, a massive talent upgrade for defensive coordinator Joe Berry among the front seven.
The schedule and rest disadvantages for the Packers are noteworthy. Their rest differential of -12 days is the worst in the league. They play three straight games on the road, Weeks 7-9. Week 8 is in Buffalo, and they're coming off their bye. They finally return to Green Bay in Week 10 to host Dallas, who's also coming off their bye. These small scheduling losses matter, especially when facing other top-tier teams off of rest.
Best Bet: Under 11.5 Wins (-140, BetMGM)
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are shifting and rebuilding on the fly. The boring run-first focus of defensive guru Mike Zimmer is gone, replaced by former Rams offensive coordinator and new head coach Kevin O'Connell. That alone should be a reason for optimism in Minnesota. With new analytical-minded general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah in place, the arrow is pointing up in Minnesota.
Applying the transitive property of coaching, we're forecasting a new look for the Vikings offense. O'Connell's Rams played with three wide receivers on 87% of snaps last season, while the Vikings did so just 42% of the time. That's a massive swing. Kirk Cousins led the league in under-center snaps without motion or play-action by a significant margin, and I suspect that'll also change this season. As the Rams did with Cooper Kupp, I anticipate a lot of different looks and alignments from Justin Jefferson, finding more creative ways to get him the football. Adam Thielen is back and healthy, K.J. Osborn benefits from an increase in 11 personnel, and if Irv Smith Jr. is healthy, we should see more production from him than in years past. This should also bring fewer stacked boxes for Dalvin Cook and this improved offensive line.
Defensively, Ed Donatell will shift the Vikings to a 3-4 base look, leaning on Za'Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter to stay healthy on the edge. Early draft capital was used on Lewis Cine and Andrew Booth, who will both be asked to step into prominent roles right out of the gate.
I'm not ruling out a run for the division's top spot, but I believe this is a playoff team.
Best Bet: Vikings To Make The Playoffs (-105, Caesars)
Detroit Lions
There's a lot of optimism here, and the Lions have been a popular futures bet this offseason. Their win total opened at 5.5 and was pounded early, as were Dan Campbell's Coach of The Year odds. I understand the optimism to a degree, but I think restoring the roar has jumped the shark.
Detroit should continue to improve offensively, but the ceiling feels limited with Jared Goff under center. The offensive line got off to a rough start in 2021 with injuries in training camp, and the forecasted opening day starting offensive line played zero snaps together. The upgraded talent surrounding Amon-Ra St. Brown is noteworthy, with D.J. Chark and Jameson Williams giving the Lions an element the 2021 club sorely lacked—speed.
The defense remains an issue. Rookies Aidan Hutchinson and Josh Paschal should help improve Detroit's pass rush, and they need it. Still, they're in trouble unless Jeff Okudah can stay healthy and be even close to who they thought they were drafting third overall in 2020. Mike Hughes cashed in on a career year in Kansas City, but when you consider that he's been the most targeted corner in the league during his two healthy seasons, it tells you teams are not fearful of him. Even if things go perfectly and this unit stays healthy, this is still a bottom-10 defense in the league that'll likely still give up a ton of explosive pass plays.
The schedule is favorable, and I believe they'll be more competitive, but I'm stunned smart folks think this could be a playoff team.
Best Bet: NFC North Third Place (+160, BetMGM)
Chicago Bears
This new regime has its hands full. It's not uncommon to see an offensive-minded coach fired and replaced with a defensive-minded coach, but you hate to see it when you have a second-year quarterback you need to build around. It would be a bit easier to swallow if they brought in an experienced offensive playcaller to support him, but that's not what the Bears have done. Former Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus is in as the head coach. New offensive coordinator Luke Getsy comes over from Green Bay and will be calling plays for the first time in the NFL. I'm sure he learned a ton from Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers, but there are more questions than answers here.
Not only will Justin Fields be tasked with surviving behind one of the league's worst offensive lines, but he'll also be throwing to the worst wide receiver room in the league. I'm bullish on Fields long-term, but things will get messy when the Bears are forced out of their base offense into clear passing situations. That will put a lot of pressure on Fields, the offensive line, and an inexperienced wide receiver group to make plays on obvious passing downs. Unfortunately, I don't think they can do that consistently.
Defensively, they lost key contributors at all levels, most notably Khalil Mack, Akiem Hicks, and Eddie Goldman. They're asking Day Two rookies Kyler Gordon and Jaquan Brisker to immediately step in and contribute. Even if this defense is league average, which I don't believe it is, they're not good enough to win football games by themselves, as the Bears have experienced in years past.
I took the Bears Under 5.5 Wins as an alt-line play at +160 a couple of weeks ago, and most books are trending that way now.
Best Bet: NFC North Fourth Place (-125, BetMGM)
NFC South Futures Bets
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers wandered the desert for 40 days and 40 nights, wondering what to do at quarterback since the GOAT, Tom Brady, had retired. Turns out, he can't stay away, and now Tampa Bay is right back in the thick of things among the NFC favorites.
There's continuity here even though Bruce Arians stepped down as head coach. Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles will try his hand in the captain's seat again, with Byron Leftwich staying on to navigate the offensive side of the ball with Brady.
Injuries to key contributors like Tristan Wirfs and Chris Godwin late last season led to an abrupt end to Tampa Bay's season. After near-flawless continuity from the 2020 club to 2021, there's been a good amount of roster turnover heading into 2022. Even so, there's enough talent here, assuming Brady stays healthy and dominant at age 45, to sleepwalk into the NFC playoffs. I'm just not sure this is a dominant team.
Best Bet: Under 11.5 Wins (-120, BetMGM)
New Orleans Saints
This feels like a different era for the Saints with Drew Brees and Sean Payton moving on. Or at least it should. But there's some continuity here with long-time defensive coordinator Dennis Allen taking over as head coach. At the same time, Pete Carmichael stays on as offensive coordinator, taking on the play-calling role left behind by Payton's retirement. As far as the future goes, they're in a precarious position given their cap situation. Still, there are reasons to be optimistic for this season.
Offensively, it's difficult to take anything away from what the Saints did last season. First, they were second in Football Outsiders' adjusted games lost due to injury on the offensive side of the ball last season. They also had the least offensive line continuity in the league last season. Jameis Winston's injury forced Taysom Hill, Trevor Siemian, and Ian Book to make starts at quarterback. A lot of their 2022 success hinges on Winston, but he'll have help because the talent upgrade at wide receiver this season is massive. The trio of Marquez Callaway, Tre'Quan Smith, and Deonte Harris has been upgraded to Michael Thomas, Chris Olave, and Jarvis Landry. On top of that, it appears, as of now, Alvin Kamara will avoid any suspension this season.
Defensively, they've been excellent under Dennis Allen, and that should continue. They'll roll out a new tandem at safety this year with Marcus Maye and Tyrann Mathieu in town, and their cornerback room is talented and has depth. They also led the league in 2021 with the lowest EPA per rush allowed, so it's a well-rounded unit. If they can avoid cluster injuries, this is a top-five unit in the league.
Best Bet: Saints To Make The Playoffs (+125, DraftKings)
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers started 3-0 last season. The young defense was starting to come together, and in September, Sam Darnold was good enough to beat the Jets, Saints, and Texans. Then the wheels fell off. We're now into the third season of the Matt Rhule era, and it looks as though we're onto another new starting quarterback. Baker Mayfield can change the narrative for both Rhule and himself this season, and I can't wait to see how it plays out.
I think a healthy Baker is a significant upgrade over Sam Darnold, who's been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league over the past 40 years, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. Mayfield didn't exactly set the world on fire last season, but he played through a torn labrum, and a fresh start should serve him well. In addition, the surrounding cast is pretty strong here. An improved offensive line, along with the return of swiss-army knife running back Christian McCaffrey, will be a sight for sore eyes, and the pass-catching group, led by D.J. Moore, has more upside than you think.
The defense is young, but a lot of draft capital has been sunk into it over the past three years, and it's starting to pay off. Jaycee Horn, Jeremy Chinn, Brian Burns, and Derrick Brown were all early picks and now will be asked to take another step forward in Phil Snow's defense. I believe Carolina's outcomes range is more expansive than my peers on Move The Line.
Best Bet: Over 6.5 Wins (+105, FanDuel)
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are in rebuild mode, and it's off to a rocky start. Atlanta's $40 million dead cap number for former franchise quarterback Matt Ryan this year is the largest in league history. In addition, over 30% of their cap is taken up by players who won't take a snap for them in 2022. Tough scene. Now, you can make the case there's room to operate in the future due to these moves, but for this season, it will be an issue.
The Falcons reunited Marcus Mariota with head coach Arthur Smith, a quarterback Smith and the coaching staff benched for Ryan Tannehill while in Tennessee. Mariota will need to keep his head on a swivel. Not just because rookie Desmond Ridder will be gunning to take his job, but because this is perhaps the worst offensive line in football. The supporting cast leaves a lot to be desired as well.
Defensively, it's not much better. Corner A.J. Terrell is terrific, but I don't know why anyone would bother targeting him. Their 18.3% pressure rate last season was the lowest in the league since 2013, and they took a few Day 2 and Day 3 stabs in the draft, hoping something would stick. My optimism is low.
Best Bet: Total Division Wins - Under 2 (-115, Caesars)
NFC West Futures Bets
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are your defending Super Bowl champs, and it's easy to forget that it wasn't smooth sailing all season. We're often goldfish and can only remember what we saw last, so it's easy to think about confetti falling on Rams superstars after knocking off the Bengals. There's a lot to like here, though the schedule will be much more difficult than what they faced last season. This team was solid on both sides of the ball in terms of EPA per play and DVOA, but they thrived late in games and in close situations. Repeating that is going to be a tall task.
Offensively, we know what the Rams want to do. However, they will have multiple new starters along the offensive line after near-flawless continuity in 2021. They played out of 11 personnel 85% of the time and had three or more wide receivers on the field for 87% of their offensive snaps last season, tops in the league. The addition of Matthew Stafford changed the makeup of this offense, predictably throwing downfield significantly more than in years past, and it worked. Cooper Kupp emerged as a dominant force, and now Allen Robinson is in town, with a chance to prove last year's dismal performance in Chicago was a fluke.
Defensively, they run a zone-heavy scheme, with a two-high shell look and a light box, daring you to run. You can do that when you have Aaron Donald dominating double teams play after play. The Rams roster is top-heavy, filled with big-named stars and impact players, but lacking overall depth. They'll make another run in the wide-open NFC if they stay healthy, but this house of cards is less stable than it appears. They're forecasted to have the league's second-toughest schedule, including non-division games against the Bills, Buccaneers, Chargers, and a late-December trip to Lambeau Field.
Best Bet: Under 10.5 Wins (-110, FanDuel)
San Francisco 49ers
Despite taking this club to the NFC title game twice in three years, Jimmy Garoppolo is out as the starter, and Kyle Shanahan is handing the keys to Trey Lance. This was clearly the plan all along, and I believe it's the right one for this franchise moving forward.
The Shanahan-led Niners are always one of the league leaders in pre-snap motion rate, expected completion rate, and yards after the catch. This scheme should help Lance get up to speed quickly. The supporting cast is also terrific, and the run-first nature of this offense supports what Lance does best. Additionally, their schedule is ideal given the circumstances. Lance can get his feet wet against the Bears and Seahawks in Weeks 1 and 2, and then their only back-to-back road games all year come early—Week 5 in Atlanta and Week 6 in Carolina. Not exactly a murderer's row to find your footing against.
Defensively, I think they'll take a little step back. The 49ers lost some depth up front with DJ Jones, Arden Key, and Kentavius Street leaving in free agency. They need recent draft picks, Javon Kinlaw and Drake Jackson, to step up. This will remain a strong unit if Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, and Fred Warner stay healthy. The secondary was an issue last season. Injuries and a lack of impact players forced the coaching staff to start eight different players in at least one game in 2021. This offseason, the 49ers gave former Chiefs cornerback Charvarius Ward the bag, but he'll need some help on the other side. Only the Bears were worse against deep passes last season.
Best Bet: Over 9.5 Wins (-140, BetMGM)
Arizona Cardinals
As they did in 2020, the Cardinals got off to a hot start last season. They steamrolled the Titans on the road in Week 1 and then won in Los Angeles against the Rams a few weeks later. The next thing you know, Kyler Murray is the MVP front-runner, and the Cardinals are the last undefeated team in the league. Then it spiraled a bit. DeAndre Hopkins went down with an ankle injury, and the overperforming defense came back down to earth. They'll begin 2022 with some of the same issues. DeAndre Hopkins got popped with a PED suspension, and their most impactful defensive player, Chandler Jones, is now a Raider.
The defense lost multiple starters, not just Chandler Jones. Corey Peters and Jordan Hicks are gone, too. They'll need to rely on a handful of recent draft picks, including multiple 2022 third-round picks to step in and contribute immediately. They'll also need Isaiah Simmons and Zaven Collins to step up. There's a chance the Cardinals will lead the league in blitz rate this season. They've ranked in the top five in blitz rate the past few years under defensive coordinator Vance Joseph, and that rate has increased with Chandler Jones off the field. He'll also have to get creative because the secondary is a dumpster fire.
Offensively, they added Marquise Brown to offset the loss of Christian Kirk and Hopkins' early-season suspension. However, they'll need more from second-year wideout Rondale Moore. The dusty duo of Zach Ertz and A.J. Green will also return to prominent roles, especially early in the season. One of my favorite statistical oddities of 2021 was from the Cardinals' offense. They fumbled the ball 25 times last season and recovered 23 of them.
Kliff Kingsbury's offense is like Chinese food to me. It's fine in the moment, but you always want more, and you're still hungry an hour later.
Best Bet: Cardinals To Not Make The Playoffs (-125, Caesars)
Seattle Seahawks
After nine straight winning seasons, led by Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner, all-time Seahawks, it's time for a new era in Seattle.
The offseason quarterback battle between Geno Smith and Drew Lock has Smith as the front-runner as of this writing. He's familiar with this offense, and his ball security is significantly better than what Lock has shown throughout his career. The Seahawks' best bet is to try and shorten games, and Pete Carroll will gladly establish the run until he's blue in the face. They re-signed Rashaad Penny this offseason and added Michigan State's Ken Walker in the draft. They'll run behind a questionable offensive line that ranked 29th in pressure rate allowed last season and 28th in ESPN's run block win rate.
Ken Norton was the scapegoat for the 2021 defensive struggles. He was fired and replaced by Clint Hurtt, who will try and shift to a 3-4 base. We'll see how that goes. The secondary is a mess. They're paying Jamal Adams a ton of money, but he's more like a box safety who can rush the passer. He's a liability in coverage, as is the rest of the roster. Their best corner last year, DJ Reed, wasn't even that good, but he left and signed with the Jets. They played a league-low 15% man last season because of the lack of talent, and I expect they'll do it again. Seattle allowed a league-worst 51% success rate against the pass last season, doing everything in their power to not get beat deep. Instead, they allowed teams to dink and dunk their way down the field against them, and that's what happened. Expect more of the same in 2022.
Best Bet: Under 6 Wins (-130, Caesars)
AFC East Futures Bets
Buffalo Bills
After playing the easiest schedule in the league last year, things get a bit tougher this year for the Bills. Still, the schedule difficulty is negated by a massive +13 rest advantage over the course of the season, the largest rest advantage in the league this season. They're favored in 16 games this season, including on the road in Week 1 against the defending Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams.
Ken Dorsey replaces Brian Daboll as the offensive coordinator. He's been on the staff for the past three seasons as the quarterback's coach, so I don't anticipate any significant philosophical changes here. The Bills ranked third in PROE last season and ninth in situational neutral pace, so a quick, pass-heavy approach will continue.
There just aren't many holes on this team, which is why the general consensus on Buffalo's outlook is so positive. Josh Allen continues to improve, they have depth everywhere and arguably the best defense in the league. However, after going 0-5 in one-score games last season, there's room for positive regression for the preseason Super Bowl favorites.
Best Bet: Over 11.5 Wins (-134, PointsBet)
Miami Dolphins
New head coach Mike McDaniel comes over from San Francisco, and it'll be interesting to see how much of the Shanahan ethos comes with him. He'll be the play caller here while Frank Smith is the offensive coordinator in title, despite not calling plays on game day. Josh Boyer is staying on as the defensive coordinator, and there have been reports some players aren't happy about that, but we'll see how that plays out. McDaniel didn't call plays for the 49ers, but he was an integral part of game planning, and it's assumed he'll take on the play-calling duties in Miami.
Beyond McDaniel, the Dolphins had a strong offseason. They're giving Tua Tagovailoa every chance to prove he's that guy. The talent upgrades on the offensive side are substantial. Miami had the league's worst offensive line last season, and now Terron Armstead and Connor Williams have been added to solidify that group. The running back room looks completely different with Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, and Sony Michel in town. Plus, I'm burying the lead because Tyreek Hill's addition changes the entire dynamic of this offense.
Miami's defense finished the year 10th in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, though if you remove their win against Ian Book and the Saints, they rank just 17th. That's a bit of the 2021 Dolphins story in a nutshell. They beat up on bottom-tier quarterbacks but struggled against anyone not named Mike Glennon or Zach Wilson. The defense has some playmakers, but they've relied heavily on turnovers for two consecutive years. While they deserve credit for causing them, turnovers aren't sticky statistically year-over-year.
I feel like the range of outcomes in Miami is quite vast. Still, I remain optimistic Tagovailoa is a league-average quarterback, at worst.
Best Bet: Over 8.5 Wins (-134, PointsBet)
New England Patriots
Patriots fans' "In Bill We Trust" mantra is getting a little quieter these days. With Josh McDaniels now in Las Vegas, there's no clear answer around who's in charge of Mac Jones and this offense. Neither Joe Judge nor Matt Patricia worked as offensive assistants in New England before departing for their respective head coaching positions. However, they are both back and rumored to be involved in the game planning and play calling. Not great.
The offensive line should be okay, but they lost depth with Shaq Mason and Ted Karras departing. The running back room remains deep and a nuisance to fantasy gamers, and the pass-catching group lacks a true primary weapon. I remain bullish on Jones and his ability, but there appears to be a lack of stability from Year 1 to Year 2, and he doesn't have enough elite talent around him to elevate this team.
Defensively, they've taken a step back, particularly in the secondary. JC Jackson left in free agency, and it appears their plan to replace him is with depth over talent. They've also overhauled their linebacking core. While I think the defensive line play should be solid, it's far from dominant. We saw the Patriots play more zone than normal last season, and I think without Jackson, that trend continues.
New England's schedule is forecasted as the seventh-most difficult in the league, and they play three road games on short rest, the most in the league in 2022. With the rest of the division improved, even the most optimistic Patriots fans must admit New England is spinning its tires.
Best Bet: Patriots To Not Make The Playoffs (-160, Caesars)
New York Jets
The Jets had a great draft, landing three first-round picks and the consensus top running back in the draft in the second round. As a result, optimism abounds in New York, but I'm not quite there yet.
Zach Wilson was an unmitigated disaster last season, with a league-worst -10.3% completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) and was outplayed by Mike White for stretches of the season. In addition, there were significant injury issues last season, particularly along the offensive line. That clearly made things harder for the rookie, so improvements along the offensive line and upgraded talent at the skill positions are bullet points for anyone bullish on this club in 2022.
The defense addressed issues in the secondary, adding Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner in the draft along with DJ Reed and Jordan Whitehead in free agency. The Jets ranked 32nd in EPA per play allowed last season and were among the bottom-three teams in almost every key defensive metric. Defensive improvements for Robert Saleh's unit seem inevitable but could still fall below league average, considering where they finished last season.
The schedule is demanding (sixth-toughest), which is a rough break considering they're a last-place team. In addition, New York's first four games are all against AFC North opponents, which is unusual. I don't like this future bet for them necessarily. However, it's priced significantly different at FanDuel than elsewhere in the market, so if you're still down on the Jets as I am, it could be worth a look.
Best Bet: Worst Record in the NFL (+900, FanDuel)
AFC North Futures Bets
Baltimore Ravens
It's impossible to talk about the 2021 Ravens without addressing their historic injury issues. Football Outsiders has been tracking games lost due to injury since the mid-'80s, and the 2021 Ravens had the highest adjusted games lost due to injury they've ever tracked. Baltimore lost key contributors on both sides of the ball and at every level.
Fifth in early-down pass rate in 2021, there's no question the Ravens intend to return to a run-centric approach this year. Along the offensive line, Ronnie Staley is back healthy, they added run-blocking mauler Tyler Linderbaum in the first round of the draft, and they also have depth behind them. Regardless of what happens with the Ravens' running backs, I expect Lamar Jackson and company to be one of the best rushing attacks in the league in 2022.
The secondary could also be exceptional. Marcus Williams was one of the best free agent signings this offseason. He and rookie Kyle Hamilton pair well together at safety. This could be a special group if Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters stay healthy. Kyle Fuller's addition adds depth Baltimore lacked in 2021. The run defense will remain elite, ranking second in run stop win rate last year, and it should be a strength again.
The pass-catching core lacks depth behind Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman, but if all goes according to plan, that won't be an issue since the ground game is slated to be of the league's best.
Best Bet: Total Division Wins - Over 3.5 (-125, Caesars)
Cincinnati Bengals
We don't see many teams with a preseason win total of 6.5 climb their way to the Super Bowl. Pretty impressive stuff. Now, I don't think any of us felt the Bengals were a great team. They certainly caught some breaks last year in terms of strength of schedule and injury luck, not to mention their playoff run. Still, a young team that got their doors blown off in the first half of the AFC Championship on the road in Kansas City didn't fold like a cheap shirt, and they deserve credit for that.
The Bengals were going to be an easy fade this year. While some factors are undeniably working against them this year, they had a tremendous offseason. I think regression gets complicated when you have this type of young core, though, especially in the passing game. The Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins trio is as good as any in the league. Burrow will enter 2022 another year removed from the knee injury that cost him the end of his rookie campaign, and he'll be playing in front of a significantly-upgraded offensive line with three new starters.
They also used the draft to add depth to the secondary, selecting Dax Hill and Cam Taylor-Britt. I liked both prospects quite a bit, and they'll be needed considering Cincinnati allowed the sixth-highest rate of explosive plays last season. This is not a great defense, but they don't have a ton of holes, and they can be top 10 in EPA per play again if they stay healthy. Also worth noting that their special teams unit is elite.
The strength of stuff is real. It's significantly harder than last season's, and every road game in the division is in primetime. That's tough. They also have a brutal stretch to end the year, but the opening schedule is manageable. I understand the calls for regression, but I believe they're counteracted by Burrow's development.
Best Bet: Over 9.5 Wins (-120, PointsBet)
Cleveland Browns
We finally have some clarity around the Browns and Deshaun Watson's early-season availability. With Watson suspended for 11 games, Kevin Stefanski will call on Jacoby Brissett to be under center to start the year. The first month is the softest part of the schedule for Cleveland, so that helps. They open at Carolina for the Baker Bowl in Week 1, then come home to face the Jets and Steelers before traveling to Atlanta in Week 4. Those are winnable games with any quarterback.
This is an elite offensive line. This unit ranked fourth in pass block win rate and ninth in run block win rate last season and will be the best offensive line either Brissett or Watson have ever played behind. The running back room is deep and talented and will be called upon often to help alleviate some of the pressure on Brissett early in the season. They also revamped the wide receiver room with the Amari Cooper trade.
Defensively, they're good where it matters. The Browns have talent and depth in the secondary, and Myles Garrett led the league in pass rush win rate last season. Cleveland was bad at stopping the run last season, though, and they did little to address that issue during the offseason. This is often regarded as the analytical approach to roster construction and defensive philosophy these days, likely driving that decision for general manager Andrew Berry and this front office. It's not a deal breaker to back to the Browns, but it's noteworthy in week-to-week matchup analysis.
Best Bet: Over 8.5 Wins (+135, FanDuel)
Pittsburgh Steelers
2022 brings a changing of the guard at quarterback for the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger is out after 18 years at the helm, and we're looking at a Mitch Trubisky/Kenny Pickett/Mason Rudolph camp battle to determine who picks up the slack. Trubisky is the early favorite.
You can make a case that the 2021 Steelers were one of the worst playoff teams in quite a while. They were 8-2 in one-score games and posted a -55 point differential, which was one of the worst marks in the conference. The regression monster is headed to Western Pennsylvania in 2022, with the league's fourth-toughest schedule doing them no favors.
There are a lot of question marks on this roster. The offensive line is still filled with bottom-tier talent, but a less statuesque quarterback should help. The pass-catching core is strong, and while Najee Harris has his detractors, he led the league in broken tackles as a rookie, a necessary skill in this particular offense. Defensively, there are a lot of new pieces around the core of T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Cameron Heyward. I don't expect this to be one of the league's best units, but they were 16th in EPA per play last season, and I'd expect them to improve on that in 2022. I know Mike Tomlin has made lemonade out of lemons before, but this is clearly the worst roster in the division.
Best Bet: Under 7.5 Wins (-115, FanDuel)
AFC South Futures Bets
Indianapolis Colts
The quarterback carousel continues in Indianapolis. The Andrew Luck retirement has continued to impact this franchise. We're now at the Matt Ryan stage after Jacoby Brissett, Philip Rivers, and Carson Wentz all took a shot at the job. The Wentz move, in particular, was costly because they gave up impactful assets to acquire him, thinking Frank Reich could bring him back from the dead. Think again.
There's a lot more talent here for Matt Ryan to play with compared to Atlanta, but that says more about the Falcons than it does about the Colts. Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman spearhead the offensive playmakers, but there are more question marks than answers behind them. The Colts' offensive line is an upgrade for Ryan as well, but they're a bit overrated in the national media. They're significantly better as a run-blocking unit than in pass protection, even though they gave up the fourth-highest stuffed rate in the league in 2021. In addition, they have massive question marks at the most critical position along the line, left tackle. I think they're often discussed as one of the league's best, and we have a couple of years of data showing it's not true. It's the Quentin Nelson factor.
Gus Bradley will replace Matt Eberflus as the new defensive coordinator in Indianapolis. Bradley's Raiders had one of the league's most predictable defenses in the league last season. He loves to run single-high shell into Cover 3 while blitzing at the league's lowest rate. He'll acquire a talented unit with top-tier talent at all three levels.
The opening schedule is really, really soft. Within the first seven weeks, they play both games against the Jaguars and Titans, and start the season on the road in Houston. Overall, the Colts have the third-easiest schedule in the league this season.
Best Bet: AFC South Division Winner (-125, FanDuel)
Tennessee Titans
Kudos to Mike Vrabel. It's hard to argue he got the most out of his team last season. The Titans finished as the top seed in the AFC last season, despite ranking 20th in the league, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. They stayed committed to the run even after losing Derrick Henry, and their mid-season winning streak wasn't like Miami's late-season charge against bad teams. The Titans started their six-game win streak against Jacksonville, then beat the Bills, Chiefs, Colts, Rams, and Saints before losing at home to the Texans to throw a wet blanket on it all.
Let's start with the good. Defensively, the Titans will continue to be strong. They changed a lot of things schematically last season, and the results were really positive. A lot more two-high safety looks with Kevin Byard and Amani Hooker, less man coverage, and fewer stacked boxes. The pass rush was mediocre last year due to injuries but should improve in 2022. They've used a lot of draft capital to help the secondary over the past few years. Defensive coordinator Shane Bowen needs contributions from all of them, given how much dime defense he called last season.
The outlook for the offense is less encouraging. We'll start with the below-average offensive line, which has starting roles at right tackle and left guard up for grabs and ranked 24th in both pass and run block win rate last season. Like almost every quarterback, Ryan Tannehill is significantly worse under pressure, with the fourth-biggest gap in DVOA per dropback under pressure vs. a clean pocket. He's also been on a three-year downtrend in efficiency with a clean pocket, so things are going in the wrong direction. The A.J. Brown trade on Draft Day also impacts the surrounding talent to work with here, and Derrick Henry's other-worldly efficiency is not sustainable and cratered last year before his mid-season injury.
Best Bet: Titans To Not Make The Playoffs (+110, Caesars)
Jacksonville Jaguars
The coaching change makes it easy to be optimistic about the Jaguars. The Urban Meyer Experience went from bad to worse as the season progressed, inevitably falling short of Meyer's laughable goal of 250 passing yards and 250 rushing yards per game. Meyer aside, Trevor Lawrence was not very good last season. New head coach Doug Pederson comes in to revive the second-year quarterback, and the front office spent money to help bolster the depth on both sides of the football.
Brandon Scherff's addition up front helps improve the offensive line, and Travis Etienne is set to make his NFL debut after a Lisfranc injury cost him his rookie season. He adds a duel threat element to the backfield to support Lawrence. Jacksonville also threw big-money contracts at Christian Kirk and Zay Jones to add depth at wide receiver. The financial part of both moves was puzzling, but they improved the talent on the field, and you can do these things when you have a quarterback on a rookie contract.
I'm not sure what to expect from new defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell. A former linebacker in the league, Caldwell has worked with Jim Schwartz in Philadelphia and Todd Bowles in Tampa Bay for the past three seasons. Schwartz and Bowles do things quite differently, so I don't want to make any assumptions here regarding the scheme. Still, they're hoping top overall pick Travon Walker helps immediately. Darious Williams comes over from the Rams and adds much-needed depth to a group that finished 31st in EPA per dropback last season.
This longshot bet says as much about the division as it does the Jaguars.
Best Bet: AFC South Second Place (+450, BetMGM)
Houston Texans
The Texans' string of strange offseasons continued. First, David Culley was fired after one year on the job. Then, since Houston decided they didn't want to violate the Rooney Rule by hiring Josh McCown, defensive coordinator Lovie Smith was promoted to head coach. So here we are. They have moved on from the Deshaun Watson drama, so we'll consider that a win. Credit where credit is due, Smith's defense definitely outperformed its talent level last season. However, it was still among the worst in the league.
The organization is giving Davis Mills an extended look at quarterback this season after playing well down the stretch. I'd like to see what Mills can do if he's more aggressive, but Houston's offensive line should be one of the better units on the team, which should help the second-year signal-caller. In addition, offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton offers continuity for Mills after working as the quarterbacks coach last season.
Defensively, they're not good but could be better than you think if top pick Derek Stingley Jr. comes in and makes a difference on Day 1. Their pass rush leaves a lot to be desired, but they added veterans at all levels, preventing them from being a disaster while also spending resources on guys in their mid-30s. It's a questionable long-term approach, but one that should help in the short term. Unfortunately, the schedule is brutal, including three road games versus teams coming off their bye. That's a brutal beat.
Best Bet: Under 4.5 Wins (-110, FanDuel)
AFC West Futures Bets
Kansas City Chiefs
Tyreek Hill's departure changes elements of the Chiefs' offense, but as long as Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are in Kansas City, it's hard to imagine them not being one of the league's best units. The Tyreek Hill shoes are big ones to fill, and the Chiefs are leaning on depth to help make up the difference. They led the league in PROE while finishing third in situation-neutral pace, and their defense will likely force them to stay aggressive for four quarters.
The Chiefs' defense was 29th in success rate allowed and 22nd in EPA per play allowed last season. Some of their best players, including Charvarius Ward, Tyrann Mathieu, and Melvin Ingram, left in free agency. They signed Justin Reid to replace Mathieu, and the duo of L'Jarius Sneed and Rashad Fenton at corner is pretty solid, but there's not a lot of depth behind them. Outside of Chris Jones and Frank Clark, they're lacking difference-makers up front. They ranked dead last in run stop win rate last season, and I don't think they'll be much better this season.
The offensive line is fantastic, and the running back room has depth, though little star power, which doesn't really matter if you have Patrick Mahomes. Suppose the Chiefs are to hold off the other contenders in this division. In that case, it's likely due to a Herculian-level performance from the former league MVP.
Best Bet: Under 10.5 Wins (+110, PointsBet)
Los Angeles Chargers
It's hard not to love this roster. Despite missing the playoffs last season, the Chargers enter the 2022 season with perhaps the fewest roster questions in the league heading into Week 1. If they can avoid cluster injuries, which have plagued them in the past, it's difficult to envision a scenario where this team isn't among the best in the loaded AFC.
Some of the Chargers' big offseason splashes came on the defensive side of the ball. This division requires you have a pair of elite edge rushers, so the Chargers traded for Kahlil Mack to pair with Joey Bosa. They also brought Sebastian Joseph-Day over from the Rams to help slow down the run, which was a massive issue for them last season. Also, they gave J.C. Jackson the bag. Jackson was a huge part of the Patriots' success defensively last season and ranked fifth in PFF's coverage grade. Finally, they also pouched Bryce Callahan from Denver to add some secondary depth. All in all, significant improvements here.
They added Zion Johnson in the draft's first round, bringing depth and versatility to the offensive line. Considering Justin Herbert's skill set and weaponry, it'd be great to see a more aggressive approach offensively. He ranked just 21st in air yards per attempt last season but ranked third in the league in adjusted completion percentage on passes 20+ yards downfield. In addition, PFF charted a minuscule 2% turnover-worthy play rate. When you have a guy like this, who has a cannon and is accurate, you have to take more shots.
Best Bet: AFC West Division Winner (+250, BetMGM)
Denver Broncos
Massive changes all around in Denver. There's a huge advantage to having a free-agent addition at quarterback coming in simultaneously as the rookie first-year head coach. In addition, new head coach Nathaniel Hackett has shown a willingness to mold offenses around his talent when you look at how pass rates and pace have varied when he's in charge, which bodes well for Russell Wilson and this offense. The Packers ranked fourth in PROE last year. Hopefully, that translates a bit in Denver. We've never seen a Russell Wilson in a heavy PROE system. Considering that as a possibility, along with Wilson's league-leading 9.9 air yards per attempt, it's easy to be excited about this offense.
Defensive additions up front for Denver weren't nearly as headline-worthy as the change at quarterback, but they'll be impactful. Pairing former Cowboys edge rusher Randy Gregory with Bradley Chubb gives them book-end defensive ends again. D.J. Jones was signed to a three-year deal as well—he led all defensive tackles in run stop win rate last year. The secondary is strong, led by Justin Simmons and Kareem Jackson at safety. In addition, Second-year corner Patrick Surtain II looked the part of a true lockdown corner towards the end of his rookie year.
The Broncos were by far the worst team in the league at covering kickoffs last season. They were shockingly bad. That impacts field position massively, and you'd think the new coaching staff should help normalize that a bit this season.
Best Bet: Over 9.5 Wins (-135, FanDuel)
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders are coming off a surprising playoff berth in 2021, but this is an entirely different team, and by all accounts, the changes are for the better. Rich Bisaccia did a great job handling the post-Jon Gruden era and probably earned this job, but Josh McDaniels finally stepped away from the New England offensive coordinator gig to give this head coaching thing another chance. McDaniels has shown a willingness to adapt offensive game plans yearly based on personnel and on a game-to-game level. It seems simple but is done by so few teams and coaches that it's worth noting.
Derek Carr ranked in the top 10 in both completion percentage and air yards per attempt last season. However, he now gets to throw to his former college teammate, Davante Adams. Adams' addition completely changes how teams will have to defend the Raiders, and hopefully, they will remain pass-heavy after ranking sixth in PROE last year. Adams will make things easier for Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow to work over the middle, but Adams should continue to earn a dominant target share in this offense. Josh McDaniels is too smart to do anything different.
Question marks along the offensive line and in the secondary make the Raiders the outsiders in the loaded AFC West. The addition of Adams and Chandler Jones at defensive end will help improve this roster, but I'm not sure it'll be enough.
Best Bet: AFC West Fourth Place (-125, BetMGM)
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