John Paulsen's 2022 Draft Day Strategery (Fantasy Football)

Aug 25, 2022

Updated 9/1/2022

It’s that time.

The bulk of the fantasy football draft season happens in August, so by request, I've bumped this article up in my annual schedule. I've participated in a few industry and best ball drafts and I think I have a pretty good handle on my draft strategy for 2022.

This piece is written with a 12-team half-PPR draft in mind, but Rule No. 1 of fantasy football is to know your scoring system. They cover this on the first day in Fantasy Football 101 while incoming freshmen are still trying to find their dorm rooms. The scoring system is going to influence positional value and there are a number of different scoring systems out there.

Drafters in standard leagues can favor running backs a bit more in the early rounds since that position gets a boost in that format.
Drafters in PPR formats can safely go WR-heavy in the early rounds if they so choose. Drafters in two-quarterback or superflex (i.e. QB-eligible flex) leagues should ignore all the late-round quarterback talk and be sure to draft a couple of top-20 passers before they’re gone.
Managers drafting in 10-team leagues should be able to wait for an extra round or two to draft the targets I discuss below since there are fewer picks in each round.
Managers in TE-premium leagues (usually 1.5 PPR for tight ends) should bump up the position as a whole and target high-volume players like Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews in the first round.

A great way to discover how a particular scoring system impacts the different positions is to use our Top 200 Value-Based Rankings Report, change the settings and see how the player values change.

General Strategery

Back in 2015, I had something of an epiphany when it came to formulating my overall draft strategy. At the two onesie positions—quarterback and tight end, where managers typically only have to start one—I felt great about Carson Palmer in the 13th round and Delanie Walker in the 10th/11th. I also advocated for the Angry Tom Strategy, which revolved around drafting a royally pissed-off Tom Brady in the 10th/11th round and taking Palmer later as his backup. This worked out even better than expected since Brady’s suspension was lifted and he played a full season. Oh, and Walker finished as the No. 3 tight end that year.

Since then, I have been trying to identify the best values at quarterback and tight end and then build my draft plan around them, and for the most part, it’s worked.

So let’s start with the…

Quarterbacks

The position remains very deep and this year it’s especially appealing to take a late-round approach. As usual, I’ll provide a few options for managers to consider.

Option #1: Aaron Rodgers, QB14?!?

Somewhat mind-bogglingly, the reigning back-to-back MVP is the 14th quarterback off the board after finishing QB5 last year and QB2 the year before. Granted, he lost the best receiver in the league (Davante Adams), but in the eight games that he’s played without Adams since 2018, his numbers haven’t suffered at all. At. All.

Our Market Share Splits App said that the difference between his splits is “probably just randomness,” which proves the point: He’s been the same player when Adams has been sidelined. In fact, his touchdowns (2.19 vs. 2.38), yards per attempt (7.4 vs. 8.3), and his overall fantasy production (20.7 PPG vs. 21.2) have all increased without Adams.

This is not to say that he’ll be better without the top receiving weapon in the league, but it should alleviate any concerns that his production will take a nosedive without Adams.

A more-efficient season is within his range of outcomes since he won’t be forcing the ball to Adams every other play. His receiving corps is definitely a concern, but there are enough familiar (and new) faces to make things work, and the offensive line should be even better in 2022.

Typical Range: 9th-10th

He’s my top QB value on the board, but if his receiving corps makes you uncomfortable, consider…

Option #2: Tom Brady, Dak Prescott, or Matthew Stafford

So maybe you don’t like Rodgers due to the loss of Davante. There are still a number of good options being drafted in the QB10-QB12 range. Managers who wait on the position and are the last to draft a quarterback may find that their preferred target may drop an additional round or two as the other owners in the league are unlikely to draft their second quarterback in the ninth round when there are still appealing options at other positions on the board.

Enter Brady, Prescott, and Stafford. When grouped with Rodgers, one (or more) of this group will likely slip into the ninth or 10th round. So at that point in the draft, Brady (last year’s QB3), Stafford (QB7), Rodgers (QB5), or Prescott (QB9) will be available to add to a lineup already stacked with eight or nine players at other positions.

Tom Brady is obviously a pocket passer so he doesn’t offer the rushing stats that we typically look for in our fantasy quarterbacks. Still, when he posts 5,316 yards and 43 touchdowns, we don’t really need those rushing stats. The offensive line should once again be good, though Brady has seemingly lost Rob Gronkowski and Chris Godwin is recovering from an ACL tear and could get off to a slow start. (Godwin was cleared for the start of camp which indicates he has a good chance to play in Week 1.) The Bucs added Russell Gage and Julio Jones to replace Gronkowski and Antonio Brown, so Brady has plenty of weapons to throw to.

Dak Prescott finished QB9 last season and QB3 back in 2019. In his five-game 2020 season, he had the highest per game average in the league (27.0 PPG) prior to injury. The Cowboys traded away Amari Cooper, but drafted Jalen Tolbert and signed the underappreciated James Washington (who proceeded to break his foot). Michael Gallup should return from his ACL tear by midseason. Of course, he has a bona fide WR1 in CeeDee Lamb and a quality tight end in Dalton Schultz.

Matthew Stafford finished QB7 in his first season as the Rams’ starter. The team lost Odell Beckham to an ACL tear but reloaded by signing Allen Robinson to replace him. Stafford doesn’t offer much as a runner, but has plenty of talent around him and could post another 4800+ yard, 40+ touchdown season if the Rams stay healthy. Update (8/19): It appears that concerns about his elbow are diminishing.

Drafters can’t go wrong with any of these guys.

Typical Range: 7th-8th

Option #3: Russell Wilson or Joe Burrow

Managers looking for a bit more upside should consider targeting Wilson or Burrow, who both offer excellent passing potential with a bit of rushing upside as well.

I’m not worried about Russell Wilson changing teams, as good quarterbacks tend to drive their own fantasy value, and he’s walking into a great situation. He has a good receiving corps and a sharp offensive mind (new HC Nathaniel Hackett) leading the way.

Wilson finished QB6 in 2020 and QB16 last season, though he had the 13th-highest per game average and only attempted 28.6 passes per game. He was QB4 in 2019 and QB8 in 2018, so he has a long track record of production and is likely to play in an up-tempo, pass-heavy offense for the first time in a while. The big question with Wilson is how much he’ll run. In the past four years, he has rushed for 23.5, 21.4, 32.1, and 13.1 yards per game. It’s not ideal if he’s running for less than 20 yards per game, but more dropbacks should lead to more scrambles.

Meanwhile, Joe Burrow finished the season as the fantasy QB6, though he had the ninth-highest per game average. (Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts outscored him on a per-game basis.) Burrow offers safety as the QB7 off the board in the sixth round. He showed considerable growth in his second season, raising his completion percentage by 5.1%, doubling his touchdown rate from 3.2% to 6.5%, and posting a league-high 8.9 yards per attempt.

His efficiency might regress a bit in his third season, but with an improved offensive line–the Bengals spent a net $20.6 million on the O-line in free agency–and one of the best receiving corps in the league, he should be a threat for top-five numbers.

Typical Range: 6th-7th

Option #4: Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts or Trey Lance

Jalen Hurts finished as the QB8 last season but had the seventh-highest per-game average. The Eagles came out of the gates pass-heavy, but after going 2-5 in their first seven games, they took a run-heavy approach over the final 10 weeks. How did this impact Hurts’ scoring? He was the fantasy QB2 through the first seven games, averaging 24.4 points per game, which was third-most behind Josh Allen and Tom Brady in that span. From Week 8 to Week 17–he sat out Week 18–he was the QB11 with the 10th-highest per game average. So the big question facing fantasy managers is whether the late-season passing swoon is going to carry over to 2022.

The Eagles made a mega trade to acquire A.J. Brown, which gives Hurts one of the best receiving corps in the league. He has Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert, plus a couple of capable pass-catching backs and WR3 Quez Watkins. This certainly indicates that they want to throw the ball more than they did in the second half of the season. The Eagles went 7-3 down the stretch, so I wonder if they’ll regress to their run-heavy ways if Hurts gets off to a slow start. As it stands, Hurts has immense upside, but should at least provide low-end QB1 numbers if the Eagles elect to go run-heavy.

Update (8/19): In the first preseason game, the Eagles called a pass on 8/8 plays while Hurts was in the game. Obviously, it's a small sample, but it appears they aren't going to continue to be run-heavy in 2022. This makes me even more bullish on Hurts this season.

Update: (9/1): I've become more willing to use a sixth-round pick on Hurts or Murray since it looks like Philadelphia will throw the ball more. Murray is what we hope Hurts becomes this season, though the Cardinals have a suspect offensive line.

As for Trey Lance, recent reports say that the 49ers have moved on from Jimmy Garoppolo. Lance started two games as a rookie. In Week 5, he threw for 192 yards and rushed for 89 en route to a QB20 finish. In Week 17, he racked up 249 passing yards and two touchdowns through the air while adding 31 yards on the ground, finishing QB10 on the week. He also played about half the game in relief of Garoppolo in Week 4 and finished QB13. This is a small sample to work from, but thanks to his rushing ability and the 49ers’ talented receiving corps, if Lance starts 15+ games this season, he’s a good bet to finish in the Top 10.

There’s some risk in drafting Lance at his current ADP–ahead of proven quarterbacks like Tom Brady, Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, and, ahem, Aaron Rodgers–but his rushing ability provides tremendous upside for those dead set on drafting a “Konami Code” quarterback.

Typical Range: 6th-7th, Hurts almost always goes first

Option #5: Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, Tua Tagovailoa, Jameis Winston

With 13 great options at quarterback and the back-to-back MVP going QB14, fantasy managers shouldn’t need a fallback option, but sometimes weird things happen, especially in home leagues. Maybe a couple of your tipsy leaguemates draft a backup quarterback earlier than expected and the first four options are no longer available–what do you do?

First, I would look to Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins.

Derek Carr has finished in the top 15 in three straight seasons and now has Davante Adams to throw to. He doesn't add much as a runner but it may not matter since he has one of the best receiving corps in the league, featuring Adams, Darren Waller, and Hunter Renfrow.

Kirk Cousins has finished QB11 in each of the last two seasons and has missed just one game in the last seven seasons. In other words, he’s a compiler. He’ll be out there for you, generating fantasy points at a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 rate.

The Vikings have moved on from Mike Zimmer, who had a tendency to impose his run-heavy mindset on his offensive playcaller. He was replaced by offensive-minded Kevin O’Connell who coordinated the offense for Sean McVay and the Rams for the last two seasons. As a result, the Vikings are likely to throw the ball more this season.

Carr and Cousins offer “boring value,” but managers who want to add some spice to their life could target Tua Tagovailoa or Jameis Winston.

Tua Tagovailoa played 93%+ of the snaps in 11 games last season, and in those games, he averaged 226 passing yards, 1.45 passing touchdowns, 12 rushing yards, and 0.18 rushing touchdowns per game. The resulting 15.3 points per game would have been good enough for solid QB2-type numbers last season.

Now he’ll have an improved receiving corps–including Tyreek Hill and the up-and-coming Jaylen Waddle–and an improved offensive line/running game to take some of the pressure off the passing game. Tagovailoa should be able to take advantage of the speed of both Hill and Waddle since he had the highest adjusted completion rate (per PFF) on deep pass attempts last season.

Through Week 7 last season (prior to his injury in Week 8), Jameis Winston had the No. 17 per game average (17.9 PPG). He only attempted 25.2 passes in that six-game span, so if OC Pete Carmichael goes a bit more pass-heavy, Winston could have some upside from those midrange QB2 numbers. Winston did average 32.3 pass attempts in his final two full starts and was on pace for 38+ pass attempts against the Bucs in Week 8 before tearing his ACL, so the team was throwing the ball more.

His weapons should be much better this year as well. Michael Thomas is back and the Saints added Chris Olave in the draft and Jarvis Landry in free agency, moves that indicate that the team does intend to pass more this season. When we last saw Winston as a full-time starter (2019), he finished as the QB5. And that was before he had LASIK surgery.

Typical Range: 9th-10th (Carr, Cousins); 11th-13th (Tagovailoa, Winston)

All right, so I’m advocating drafting a quarterback sometime in the 6th-10th rounds, depending on your preferred target(s).

Side note: I’ll occasionally draft an elite QB (Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, or Kyler Murray) if I’m not enthusiastic about any of the other options on the board, if they slip past their ADP, or if I think my top RB/WR/TE will still be available in the next round.

Tight Ends

I’ve long been an advocate of the Stud TE approach. It’s great having a legitimate weapon at the position who can outscore the opponent’s WR1 in any given week, especially in traditional redraft formats. If there is a screaming value in the later rounds–like the aforementioned Delanie Walker in the 10th round–then I’ll certainly stray from the Stud TE strategy.

While I do believe the position is especially deep this year, there isn’t a no-brainer Delanie-type available in the later rounds. There are several breakout candidates, however, which I’ll discuss later.

Option #1: Draft Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews or Kyle Pitts

The two studs I have full confidence in are Kelce and Andrews. These two have flip-flopped in my projections a few times in the past couple of months.

Travis Kelce has been the best fantasy tight end in the history of the league, dominating the position like no other player has been able to. Kelce had five straight TE1 finishes before a TE2 finish last season, and it’s possible that his age (33 in October) may be catching up to him a bit.

His receiving yards per game (a still-excellent 70.3) were his lowest since 2017, and his yards per catch (12.2) were his lowest since 2015, while his yards per target (8.4) was a career-low. His yards per route run (1.84) was his lowest since 2015. (He is typically over 2.0 yards per route run.)

With Tyreek Hill no longer with the Chiefs, Kelce will surely remain an integral part of the offense, especially in the red zone. Volume alone should keep him in the running to be the overall TE1.

The Ravens are likely to go more run-heavy this year, but Mark Andrews will still see a huge target share from Lamar Jackson and he’s in the prime of his career, coming off of the overall TE1 finish in 2021. The departure of Marquise Brown ensures that Andrews is in line for another monster season, providing he stays healthy.

Update (9/1): I'm warming to Kyle Pitts as a third-round pick in PPR or half-PPR formats, or as a second-round pick in TE-premium leagues. Drake London's knee should be fine, but Pitts' role is secure and he's a threat to lead all tight ends in targets.

Typical Range: 1st-2nd

Option #2: Dalton Schultz, T.J. Hockenson or Dallas Goedert

I’m skipping over the second tier of tight ends–Darren Waller and George Kittle–since I can’t really endorse them at their ADP. Fifth-round Kittle is certainly palatable, but I have environmental concerns about these talented players.

Waller is likely to see a drop in targets with Davante Adams on board, so his usage is capped. Kittle is dealing with a quarterback change as well; he didn’t catch many passes from Trey Lance last year and the 49ers may be even more run-oriented this season.

But then there is Dalton Schultz. I realize he’s not the talent that Waller or Kittle are, but his situation has actually improved since he finished as the TE4 last season. (He had the fifth-highest per game average behind Andrews, Kelce, Kittle, and Rob Gronkowski.)

Amari Cooper was traded away and Michael Gallup is likely to miss part of the regular season recovering from his ACL tear. This means that Schultz will be competing with Jalen Tolbert and James Washington for targets behind CeeDee Lamb.

He plays in a good offense, has a good quarterback, is coming off of a breakout season, and is in a contract year.

Schultz is going about 20 picks earlier than Hockenson, which doesn’t seem right, so perhaps T.J. Hockenson is the best middle-round value at the position.

He was tied with Schultz with the seventh-highest per game average, and was the TE5 in 2020. I’m slightly concerned about the number of mouths to feed in Detroit with Amon-Ra St. Brown emerging and D.J. Chark and Jameson Williams now in the fold. But Hockenson should continue to see close to 7.0 targets per game, which is good usage for a tight end.

Schultz and Hockenson are good targets for managers who want top-five upside but don’t want to use premium draft capital on the position.

Update (9/1): It looks like Philadelphia will throw the ball this year, which means that Goedert has a chance to improve upon his TE6 finish last season. He averaged 3.6 receptions with 52 yards and 0.14 touchdowns in 14 games with Hurts, but had his biggest game (6-105-2) with Gardner Minshew at quarterback. He was second in yards per route run among tight ends last season after finishing ninth in that metric the year before. If the Eagles throw consistently this season, Goedert should produce despite his target competition.

Typical Range: 6th-8th

Option #3: Zach Ertz or Dawson Knox

In 11 games, Zach Ertz averaged 5.1-52-0.27 on 7.4 targets per game after joining the Cardinals via trade last season. (He was the TE4 in that span.) He did benefit from the absence of DeAndre Hopkins, but he should continue to see a regular (if reduced) role in the Arizona passing game even after Hopkins returns from suspension in 2022.

I don’t mind Dawson Knox in this range either, but his volume is so low and he’s extremely touchdown-dependent. There are some vacated targets in Buffalo, so there’s a chance that his role grows. He’s a better athlete than people think and is fully capable of a bigger workload if the Bills choose to go that direction.

Typical Range: 9th-10th

Option #4: Draft 2-3 breakout candidates and hope one breaks out, a.k.a. “The Breakout Committee”

I saw someone joking about this on Twitter, but the tight end position really is deep this year. The TE2 rankings (#13-#24) are packed with emerging players alongside safer plays.

Pat Freiermuth, Cole Kmet, Irv Smith, and Albert Okwuegbunam are obvious breakout candidates, and David Njoku would shoot up the rankings if his quarterback situation solidifies. (Narrator: "It didn't.")

Pat Freiermuth finished with 60-497-7 on 79 targets in 16 games as a rookie. It was the fifth-most fantasy points by a rookie tight end since the 2000 season. He split time with Eric Ebron, who is no longer in Pittsburgh. In the eight games that Ebron was sidelined, Freiermuth averaged 4.1 catches for 37 yards and 0.63 touchdowns. That pace over a full 16- or 17- game season would have made him the top rookie tight end since 2000. Without Ebron, his targets increased from 4.5 to 5.4 and his routes run increased from 20.8 per game to 25.8 per game.

The Bears didn’t do much this offseason to surround Justin Fields with new weapons, so Cole Kmet may serve as the No. 2 target behind Darnell Mooney. He was actually second on the team in targets (93) last season en route to 60 catches for 612 yards. He failed to find the end zone, partially due to the presence of Jimmy Graham (three touchdowns), who stubbornly absorbed tight end routes in the red zone. Kmet did see 12 red zone targets, which was the second-most (after Cole Beasley) of any players without a red zone touchdown. Graham is no longer with the team, so Kmet’s red zone involvement should increase in his third season.

Irv Smith Jr. was a popular breakout candidate heading into last season but a torn meniscus ended his season in early September. In his place, Tyler Conklin was the fantasy TE16, and last year’s offense was likely more run-heavy than the 2022 version will be. In the 11 career games where Smith saw at least four targets, he averaged 3.7 receptions for 39 yards and 0.45 touchdowns (on 5.2 targets per game), which works out to 8.7 PPG. That’s about what Kyle Pitts averaged as last season’s TE5. A top-12 finish is definitely in play for Smith if he’s fully healthy.

At 6’6” and entering his third season, Albert Okwuegbunam runs a 4.49 40-yard dash and is getting both a quarterback upgrade (to Russell Wilson) and a role upgrade, since Noah Fant was sent to Seattle as part of the Wilson trade. I nearly did a spit take when I saw a Denver beat writer say that rookie Greg Dulcich–who ran a 4.70 40-yard dash–offered more speed at the position.

The only real cause for concern is Okwuegbunam’s lack of production thus far in his career, but in 2021, sharing time with Fant, he improved to 33-330-2 while posting the fifth-highest yards per route run at his position. The Broncos drafted Dulcich in the third round of the draft, but it typically takes rookie tight ends a while to get up to speed. There has been a lot of buzz/discussion about Dulcich, which does give me some pause with respect to Okwuegbunam. I still love him as part of a breakout committee.

Update (9/1): Okwuegbunam's breakout season was put on hold when he was playing into the fourth quarter of the team's second preseason game, which is unusual for a player that is supposedly considered to be the team's starter. The Broncos said that he needed the reps, but they held him out of the third preseason game, which is a good sign. Dulcich was also placed on injured reserve, guaranteeing he misses at least four games. Okwuegbunam should have a chance to establish himself as the starter.

If not for Deshaun Watson’s looming suspension, David Njoku would jump out as a screaming value as the TE18 off the board. Austin Hooper is gone, Watson is (theoretically) in, and the Browns signaled how much they value the athletic Njoku by slapping him with the franchise tag in March. Some may question his upside as he hasn’t cleared 500 yards receiving since 2018 (when he posted 56-639-4), but his very promising career was derailed by a wrist fracture in 2019 and this will be the first time since ‘18 that he’ll be a full-time player.

He posted the 11th-highest yards per route run last season, which highlights his efficiency. The Browns are pretty weak at WR2/WR3 as well, so there’s the chance that hea establishes himself as the team’s No. 2 option after Amari Cooper.

If Watson dodges a long suspension, I’ll target Njoku heavily.

Update (8/19): Watson settled with the NFL. He'll be suspended for 11 games, which means he'll be out through Week 12 due to the Browns' bye. Njoku's upside certainly takes a hit with Watson out, but the good news is that Jacoby Brissett targeted a tight end on 27.1% of his attempts last season (hat tip, Stathead.com), completing 39-of-61 targets for 422 yards and one touchdown.

Typical Range: 10th-14th

Want an even deeper sleeper? Mo Alie-Cox might get a chance to be an every-down type player for the first time in his career. His efficiency stats are pretty good–he was fifth at the position in yards per route run in 2020 and 20th last season.

The team upgraded from Carson Wentz to Matt Ryan at quarterback, and Ryan has supported big seasons from his tight ends in the past. Over the last several seasons, Kyle Pitts (68-1,026-1 on 110 targets), Hayden Hurst (56-571-6 on 88 targets), and Austin Hooper (75-787-6 on 97 targets in 2019 and 71-660-4 on 88 targets in 2018) have all produced with Ryan at quarterback.

In the 10 games where Alie-Cox has seen at least four targets, he has averaged 2.7 catches (on 4.5 targets) for 38 yards and 0.30 touchdowns. That’s not spectacular production, but it’s better than what Tyler Conklin averaged as last year’s fantasy TE15. Alie-Cox is a good late-round pick, especially in best ball formats where fantasy managers typically go tight end by committee.

Option #5: Draft a productive vet and a breakout candidate

Noah Fant, Hunter Henry, Gerald Everett, Austin Hooper, and Hayden Hurst are being drafted in the TE15-TE24 range.

Noah Fant averaged 4.2 receptions for 46 yards and 0.28 touchdowns per game (on 5.5 targets per game) in 18 games with Drew Lock over the last two seasons. He has finished TE13 and TE12 in 2020 and 2021, respectively. It looks like Geno Smith may start for the Seahawks, so Fant doesn’t have his connection with Lock to lean on, but who knows, maybe Smith will actually be better for Fant.

Update (9/1): Fant's preseason playing time with the starters has been a little worrisome. It doesn't appear that he'll be a full-time player since he'll be sharing time with Will Dissly.

It was not clear at the start of the season which of the Patriots’ high-profile tight end signings would be more productive, but Hunter Henry ran away with the competition, catching more passes (50 to 28) for more yards (603 to 294) and way more touchdowns (9 to 1). He led the Patriots in red zone targets (17), which was good enough to be tied for 20th in the league (all positions) and seventh among tight ends. I would expect a similar, red zone-heavy role for Henry in Mac Jones’ second season.

Gerald Everett has some upside as he replaces Jared Cook in the Chargers’ offense. He obviously has a great quarterback situation and is pretty athletic for his position. He has three straight seasons with 37-48 catches for 408-478 yards and 1-4 touchdowns. Cook posted 48-564-4 last year for the Chargers in his age-34 season. I’m not expecting a breakout for Everett, but he could replicate Cook’s production if he sees enough work.

Of all the tight ends going outside the top 20 at the position, I think the 27-year-old Austin Hooper may have the best chance to surprise with a top-12 finish. He finished TE6 in both 2018 and 2019 before signing with the Browns and having his usage fall way off. He had 88 and 97 targets in 2018 and 2019 (with the Falcons) and saw those targets drop to 70 and 61 in his last two years in Cleveland. The Titans will be run-heavy, but there are a boatload of targets up for grabs after the loss of A.J. Brown (105), Julio Jones (48), Chester Rogers (43), and Anthony Firkser (43). Hooper is reportedly building a nice rapport with QB Ryan Tannehill in offseason activities and could lead the Titans in touchdown catches.

And don’t be surprised if Hayden Hurst beats his career numbers (56-571-6 on 88 targets in 2020) in his first season with the Bengals, who signed Hurst to replace C.J. Uzomah. Uzomah posted an efficient 49 catches for 493 yards and five scores on 63 targets. Hurst should enjoy the best quarterback play of his career.

Managers who don’t want to bet on two breakout candidates could draft one and then pair him with one of these steady producers.

Typical Range: 12th-16th

Running Backs

I’m going to clip a portion of my 2022 Rankings Breakdown for the running back position to underscore a point:

In 2021, there were eight backs who averaged at least 20.0 touches per game: Derrick Henry (29.6), Najee Harris (22.9), Dalvin Cook (22.3), Jonathan Taylor (22.1), Alvin Kamara (21.3), Joe Mixon (20.9), Elijah Mitchell (20.5), and David Montgomery (20.4). In half-PPR scoring, all eight finished in the top 15 in per-game scoring. Five of the eight finished in the top six in scoring.

There were six more backs who finished in the 17- to 20-touch range: Christian McCaffrey (19.4), Antonio Gibson (18.5), Nick Chubb (18.3), Leonard Fournette (17.8), Josh Jacobs (17.4), and Austin Ekeler (17.0). Four of these six backs finished in the top 10 in per-game scoring, while the other two finished inside the top 20. (Austin Ekeler finished RB3, which highlights the importance of receptions when evaluating lower-workload players.)

To sum up, all 14 backs who led the league in touches per game finished inside the top 20 in half-PPR per-game scoring. Twelve of the 14 finished inside the top 15.

In other words, follow the touches.

I went on to discuss those players who have predictably high workloads, so be sure to refer to that article if interested.

Hero RB

In early drafts, I find myself taking the “Hero RB” approach, also known as the “Anchor RB” strategy. (But not “Modified Zero RB” because that’s not a thing.)

Basically, I’m targeting one of my top 12 (or so) running backs in one of the first three rounds and then otherwise ignoring the position for a few rounds while I draft receivers and possibly address the tight end and quarterback positions.

If I have an early pick, I’d likely target Jonathan Taylor or Christian McCaffrey. Whether I go after one of the next tier of backs–Derrick Henry or Austin Ekeler–depends on league format and roster requirements. For example, I might take Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews in a TE-premium league or perhaps draft a receiver if it’s a PPR league and I have to start three versus just two running backs.

There is an attractive group of backs going in the #13 to #17 range, including Joe Mixon, Aaron Jones, and D’Andre Swift. These players can be used in a Hero RB strategy or be paired with a first-round running back like Henry (who sometimes slips), Dalvin Cook, or Najee Harris. If I did start my draft RB/RB, I probably wouldn’t draft another running back until the eighth round at the earliest.

There are a few other Hero RB candidates going later than the middle of the second round: Leonard Fournette (pick 23), James Conner (33), and Alvin Kamara (31), provided you're comfortable with 1) Kamara’s pending legal case that keeps getting delayed and 2) his reduction in touches whenever Mark Ingram is healthy.

I particularly like James Conner in the third round after starting the draft WR/Andrews or Kelce/WR (in a TE-premium league). His workload seems especially safe given his competition for touches in Arizona. In the five games that Chase Edmonds missed last season, Conner averaged 20.8 touches (including 5.0 catches) for 20.7 fantasy points per game.

The "RB Dead Zone”

There are a few interesting names in the so-called “dead zone,” which depending on who you’re talking to, could be the 3rd-6th range, or the 3rd-7th, or the 4th-7th, or something like that.

Anyway, there are a few players with very predictable workloads going in this range this season, and that’s not always the case. I’m referring to Ezekiel Elliott, David Montgomery, and Cam Akers, though I’m only going to advocate for Zeke given the Bears’ woeful offensive line and Akers’ Achilles. Update (8/19): Sean McVay's recent comments about having two starting running backs has put me in a full fade of Akers. I'd much rather target Darrell Henderson in the later rounds.

Ezekiel Elliott was really rolling prior to his Week 4 knee injury. He had a tough Week 1 against the stingy Bucs’ rush defense (39 total yards) but racked up 97 total yards and a score against the Chargers, 116 total yards and two touchdowns against the Eagles, and 143 rushing yards and a touchdown against the Panthers in Week 4, and that included a 47-yard run, the third-longest of his career. He posted 112 total yards and two touchdowns in Week 5 and 119 total yards in Week 6. After the team’s Week 7 bye, he didn’t gain more than 76 total yards in a game until Week 18. Before the bye, he averaged 19.7 touches (and 5.11 YPC) and just 15.1 touches (and 3.55 YPC) after the bye.

Interestingly, Dallas wasn’t utilizing Tony Pollard more–he averaged 12.7 touches before the bye and just 10.4 touches after–so the Cowboys were using their running backs at a lower rate after the bye. Per his head coach, the 27-year-old Elliott is “completely healthy now” and is probably too young to be hitting the wall, making him a nice value in the early fourth round of fantasy drafts. It doesn’t hurt that the Cowboys still have a top 10 offensive line.

But I’m going to typically be targeting a receiver in the fourth round–more on that later.

I’d be very comfortable with Elijah Mitchell (pick 65) in the sixth round as my RB2, or even as my RB1 if I <gasp> took a Zero RB approach.

When Mitchell was healthy, he was the clear lead back for the 49ers, averaging 18.8 carries and 1.7 receptions per game. There is still a narrative going around that there’s uncertainty in a Kyle Shanahan backfield, but those of us that spent big FAAB on Mitchell last year know that that’s simply not the case. Shanahan rode Raheem Mostert as his lead back as long as he was healthy, and once Mostert went down, he tabbed Mitchell as his RB1.

Mitchell didn’t disappoint; he averaged 4.65 YPC and had the fifth-highest yards after contact per attempt (per Pro Football Reference). The 49ers drafted Tyrion Davis-Price in the third round to replace Mostert, who signed with the Dolphins as a free agent. There are early indications that they want to use Davis-Price as a complement to Mitchell, to help keep Mitchell healthy. I’m fine with that, given Mitchell’s ADP.

Middle-Round Targets

Whether I draft one or two backs in the early rounds, there are several very appealing RB3-types who have a chance to post high-end RB2 numbers.

Chase Edmonds is my primary target in the seventh round, though I’ll pull the trigger in the sixth if I need an RB2 to make sure I get him. Our own Connor Allen wrote a great piece about Edmonds’ upside in the Miami offense. The Dolphins gave him six times as much money as their next biggest free agent signing (Raheem Mostert) and Edmonds is particularly effective (5.8 YPC last year) in a zone-blocking run scheme which is what new HC Mike McDaniel is likely to run after working for Kyle Shanahan the last few years. Edmonds may not see the goal line work (though he might) but should see the vast majority of the backfield receptions since his primary competition is Mostert and Sony Michel. The Dolphins also spent the second most ($17.8 million) on the offensive line in free agency so the unit should be much improved.

If I miss on Edmonds, or even if I nab him, I’m looking for Rhamondre Stevenson next. He’s going in the early eighth round, so it’s possible to get both. Stevenson is one of the most talented real-world RB2s in the league. He was fourth in yards after contact per attempt (2.7) and was second in broken tackles per attempt (0.55). He can also catch the ball, which may earn him snaps this year since James White (12 catches) has retired and Brandon Bolden (41 catches) is no longer with the team. Stevenson should have an every-week role and top 10 upside if anything were to happen to Harris. Update (8/19): He could take over the James White role, but Ty Montgomery has been running ahead of him (in that role) in practice.

Update (9/1): Stevenson's ADP ascension has led to a corresponding drop for Damien Harris, who gained 1,061 yards from scrimmage last season and scored 15 touchdowns. His role should be safe, and he may even see more work on passing downs with Montgomery's injury. He's a great pick in the ninth round.

Fallback middle-round options are Rashaad Penny and Cordarrelle Patterson.

Seattle re-signed Rashaad Penny to a one-year deal worth $5.75 million, including $5.07 million guaranteed, the third-most guaranteed money given to a running back this offseason. He finished the season on fire, racking up 671 rushing yards and six touchdowns in his final six games. Per ESPN’s Brady Henderson, Penny is “in the driver’s seat” to be the team’s starting back, while beat writer Bob Condotta expects Penny to see 20 carries a game as the team’s “primary ball carrier.”

Penny has missed 28 of a possible 65 games in his four-year career, so durability just hasn’t been there. Maybe this is the year? He led the league in yards after contact per attempt and was 15th in broken tackles per attempt. In the eighth round, I’m willing to roll the dice since Pete Carroll and Co. are likely to run the ball, even when trailing.

Update (8/19): Penny missed some time with a soft tissue injury but is back in action now. Ken Walker has some sort of core muscle injury and just underwent a surgery/procedure. He might miss a couple of games (or more).

Cordarrelle Patterson is going in the early 10th round and he’s a great value at that point. He’s not going to see a ton of touches, but the touches he does see are valuable. He catches a lot of passes and the Falcons used him extensively in the red zone last season. Prior to his ankle sprain in Week 10, he was the fantasy RB7 through the first nine weeks. He’s unlikely to finish in the top 10 again–he was last year’s RB8, believe it or not–but as the 38th back off the board, he can regress quite a bit and still beat his ADP by a wide margin.

The nice thing about targeting these backs is that they’re going off the board as things are getting a little dicey at receiver.

One back to target late is Nyheim Hines, who is the RB45 off the board in the 12th round at Underdog. He didn’t have as many spike weeks in 2021 as he did the year before, but that was likely due to Carson Wentz electing not to check it down as often as Philip Rivers did in 2020. On the other hand, Matt Ryan targeted Patterson and Mike Davis a combined 127 times last season and the Colts are serious about using Hines as a receiver more frequently this year, so he could get back to the 60- to 65-catch range if he stays healthy.

Indianapolis signed Hines to a three-year deal worth $18.6 million ($12.0 million guaranteed), which would have been the second-biggest contract in free agency last year behind Leonard Fournette. He also has major upside if anything were to happen to Jonathan Taylor as evidenced by the 18 touches for 95 yards that he saw in Week 12 of the 2020 season while Taylor was sidelined.

Wide Receivers

Early Rounds

I have zero issues with any of the top six receivers off the board–Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, and CeeDee Lamb–so they should be safe, productive picks from the mid-first to early-second rounds.

After that, things get a bit dicey since I’m a little higher on some third- and fourth-round receivers than I am some of the players going near the 2nd/3rd turn. Update (9/1): Deebo Samuel's role is a little up in the air after a big stint running the ball in the second half of last season. He has a new quarterback as well. Tyreek Hill makes me a little nervous joining a new offense with a new quarterback. Mike Evans should be solid, but the potential Week 1 return of Chris Godwin and the Julio Jones signing gives me pause. I’m not sure that he’s going to be the high-volume receiver that he was shaping up to be a month or so ago.

(So the mid- to late-second round is a great time to nab Mark Andrews since he’s basically able to provide WR1 production at the tight end position.)

Four receivers who stand out in the third round are Michael Pittman Jr., A.J. Brown, Keenan Allen, and D.J. Moore.

As a sophomore, Michael Pittman Jr. had a breakout season, catching 88 passes for 1,082 yards and six touchdowns despite so-so quarterback play from Carson Wentz. He’s entrenched as the team’s WR1 and should enjoy a quarterback upgrade now that Matt Ryan is in the fold. The Colts averaged 30.6 pass attempts in 2021 but averaged 34.5 with Philip Rivers at quarterback in 2020 and 40.3 with Andrew Luck in 2018. Ryan averaged 32.9, 39.1, and 41.1 pass attempts in his past three seasons. If HC Frank Reich opens up the passing game now that he has a good quarterback (again), then Pittman and the other pass-catchers will surely benefit.

Pittman’s route-running fared well in Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception charting. Harmon wrote, “Pittman fits the bill of a true No. 1 wide receiver ready to rocket up league-wide rankings. He’s a do-it-all player who doesn’t present any real weaknesses in his game. Not only is he in line for a huge 2022 season but should be set for an excellent career as an underrated great wideout.”

Albeit a somewhat “boring” pick at this point, Keenan Allen has averaged at least 70.9 receiving yards in five straight seasons and caught at least six touchdown catches in each year. He saw nearly 10 targets per game in 2021 despite a breakout season by Mike Williams, and he’s attached to a great quarterback in Justin Herbert. The only real concern is his age (30), but Allen is good enough to continue to produce into his mid-30s.

As for D.J. Moore, he finished WR20 last season after a WR21 finish the year before. He has gained at least 1,100 yards in three straight seasons, but he hasn’t been able to catch more than four touchdowns thus far in his career. The arrival of Baker Mayfield should open up the passing game quite a bit. Sam Darnold and Co. threw for 3,573 yards and 14 touchdowns last season. Mayfield’s career averages equate to 4,002 yards (+12.0%) and 26.1 touchdowns (+86.2%). Wheels up for Moore.

Update (8/19): I'm adding A.J. Brown and, to a lesser degree, Tee Higgins to my list of third-round targets. Brown is apparently seeing a ton of targets in camp and the aforementioned pass-heavy play-calling in the Eagles' first drive with Jalen Hurts at quarterback has changed my tune on the offense as a whole. Higgins is a solid pick, but I'd still rather have D.J. Moore or Keenan Allen.

Middle Rounds

In the fourth, I’m targeting Terry McLaurin, Allen Robinson, Gabriel Davis and Diontae Johnson.

Terry McLaurin has been in the league for three seasons and in that span, he has received the most targets from Taylor Heinicke (123), Dwayne Haskins (98), and Case Keenum (41). Keenum was the best of the bunch, and McLaurin averaged 10.6 yards per target from him, while Keenum had a 142.9 QB rating when targeting McLaurin.

I point this out since Carson Wentz is taking over as the starter in Washington and his career numbers are better than Keenum’s. That’s not saying a whole lot, but it underscores just how sketchy McLaurin’s quarterback play has been thus far. Still, McLaurin was able to post 87-1118-4 in 2020 and 77-1053-5 last season. It also doesn’t hurt that Wentz had the 12th-highest adjusted completion percentage on deep balls (20+ yards), per PFF. Heinicke was 33rd in that metric last season, so Wentz should be better able to take advantage of McLaurin’s deep speed.

Allen Robinson obviously had a down season in 2021 (38-410-1) but is only one season removed from 102-1,250-6 in 2020. Robinson will essentially take over the Robert Woods/Odell Beckham role for the Rams. Woods was the WR12 through Week 9, when he tore his ACL. Beckham took over in Week 12 and was the WR21 down the stretch. When their numbers are averaged and prorated, it equates to 194.7 fantasy points, which is about what Michael Pittman Jr. scored as last year’s WR15. Robinson is the WR21 off the board which looks like a good value given his proven production and the valuable role he’s about to step into.

Update (9/1): It has been interesting to watch the debate surrounding Gabriel Davis and his late-season/playoff surge into fantasy relevance. Detractors point to his low target share (10.1%) in the regular season and his inability to garner consistent snaps until very late in the year. But when he did play big snaps–whoo boy. He finished the season with receiving lines of 5-43-1 (8), 5-85-2 (7), 3-40 (3), and 3-39 (14) in the regular season, and then 2-41-1 (3) and a mind-boggling 8-201-4 (10) in the playoffs. Those were the only six games where he played at least 70% of the snaps all year. In the 14 career games where he played that snap share, including the postseason, he averaged 3.6 catches (on 6.2 targets) for 58 yards and 0.79 touchdowns. That’s a 61-991-13.4 pace, or 12.3 fantasy points per game (half-PPR). That’s about what Hunter Renfrow and DK Metcalf averaged as the WR19 and WR20 last season.

So Davis’s WR19 positional ADP seems entirely reasonable considering he’s an up-and-coming receiver attached to one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and should see a snaps/targets promotion from WR4 to WR2 after the departure of both Cole Beasley (112 targets) and Emmanuel Sanders (72 targets). His yards per route run (2.03) was 13th amongst receivers last season and, when the playoffs are included, he saw the 12th-most red zone targets (34) in the league over the last two seasons.

Note: Davis was discussed as a fifth-round option prior to the update, but now I'll look for him in the fourth round, so I moved this blurb up in the article.

Diontae Johnson finished WR20 in 2020 and WR8 last year but is going off the board WR22 this year thanks to a new quarterback situation. While Mitch Trubisky, Mason Rudolph, and Kenny Pickett don’t inspire a ton of confidence, it wasn’t like Ben Roethlisberger provided irreplaceable quarterback play last season. (He threw for 3,740 yards and 22 touchdowns with a 6.2 yards per attempt.) Johnson regularly charts among the top route-runners in Harmon’s Reception Perception project, and can basically get open at will. Quarterbacks tend to like that.

I am a little worried about Trubisky’s start to camp and Johnson’s contract situation, so he’s not a no-brainer in the fourth round.

The fifth round is another good spot for a receiver, especially Brandin Cooks, Rashod Bateman, Darnell Mooney, or Gabriel Davis, if he slips a bit. Update (8/19): I'm adding Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Thomas and DK Metcalf to the list as well.

Don’t fear Davis Mills and the Texans when it comes to Brandin Cooks. Mills played pretty well as a rookie and targeted Cooks on 28.3% of his attempts in 12 games. Cooks averaged 6.2 receptions for 65.5 yards and 0.42 touchdowns in that span, which translates to 105 catches for 1,113 yards and 7.1 touchdowns over the course of a 17-game season.

Rashod Bateman is primed for a breakout season after a pretty quiet (46-515-1) rookie year that was submarined by an early-season injury. Marquise Brown is out of the way, so Bateman is the unquestioned WR1. His primary competition for targets will be Mark Andrews, but there should be enough Lamar Jackson targets to support two Baltimore pass-catchers. Bateman’s targets may not be as high as we’d like, but he’s good enough to take advantage of the 7-8 targets per game that he’s likely to see.

Darnell Mooney moved into the Bears’ WR1 role last year en route to a 140-target, 81-catch, 1,055-yard, four-touchdown season. The Bears parted ways with Allen Robinson and didn’t really replace him, so Mooney and Cole Kmet will very likely lead this team in targets.

If Justin Fields can improve at all in his second season, then Mooney should be able to beat his WR26 finish from last year, making him a good value as the 28th receiver off the board. If Fields can make a bigger leap, then Mooney has a shot to post high-end WR2 numbers. Mooney finished 39th/105 in yards per route run and 31st in targets per route run. As a third-year receiver, Mooney could make a leap of his own by improving his 57.9% catch percentage.

Update (8/19): The Lions are apparently using Amon-Ra St. Brown consistently in camp and Jared Goff has been finding him when things break down. DK Metcalf was targeted heavily by Geno Smith last season and it appears that Smith is going to win the starting job, at least for now. Michael Thomas has reportedly looked like his old self in camp and is worthy of a fifth-round pick at this point.

Adam Thielen is going in the middle of the sixth, which is a great value. Through the first 12 weeks, prior to injuring his ankle, Thielen had racked up 63-686-10 on 90 targets and was the fantasy WR7. That’s right, WR7. The Vikings look like they’re going to throw the ball more in 2022 which should offset any loss in efficiency that Thielen experiences due to age–he’s turning 32 in August.

As the draft shifts into the 7th-10th rounds, I’m starting to look for a few of the aforementioned running backs, but I’ll try to make room for Tyler Lockett as my WR4/WR5 around the ninth round.

Lockett had his third-straight season with at least 1,054 yards and eight touchdowns by posting 73-1,175-8 in his seventh season. He finished WR19 through Week 17 last season (the span I usually use to avoid final week shenanigans), but when his huge Week 18 is included, he was the WR13. He was also the WR13 in 2020 and the WR18 in 2019. So why is he going off the board as the WR48?

Well, he’s undergoing a massive quarterback change from Russell Wilson to Geno Smith/Drew Lock, and he’s entering his age-30 season. I’m not worried about his age, but the quarterback situation certainly is an issue. The good news is that Smith targeted Lockett at a 28.4% rate in his 95 pass attempts last season. The bad news is that he didn’t catch a touchdown, while DK Metcalf had four.

I’ll be back in the next week or two with positional sleepers and values, but for now here are a couple of sample drafts depending on draft position.

Early Pick Sample Draft

QB: Rodgers (10)

RB: McCaffrey (1), Edmonds (7), Stevenson (8)

WR: Brown (2), Pittman (3), A. Robinson (4), Cooks (5), Lockett (9)

TE: Schultz (6)

Late Pick Sample Draft

QB: Hurts (6)

RB: Conner (3). Edmonds (7), Stevenson (8), Patterson (10)

WR: Chase (1), McLaurin (4), St. Brown (5), Lockett (9)

TE: Andrews (2)

To help with draft planning here is a table of my targets at each position while the primary targets are in ALL CAPS.

**Paulsen's Draft Targets By Round (2022)**
Round	QB	RB	WR	TE
1		Taylor, McCaffrey, Henry, Ekeler	Kupp, Jefferson, Chase
2		Mixon, A. Jones, Swift, J. Williams, Fournette	LAMB	KELCE, ANDREWS
3		Conner	BROWN, PITTMAN, MOORE, ALLEN, Higgins	PITTS
4		Elliott	MCLAURIN, Davis Robinson, D. Johnson
5			COOKS, Bateman, St. Brown, Metcalf, Godwin, M. Thomas, Mooney
6	Murray, Hurts	Mitchell	MOONEY, THIELEN	Schultz
7	Burrow, Wilson	EDMONDS	London, Lazard, Kirk, Aiyuk	SCHULTZ, Hockenson
8	Brady, Prescott, Lance	STEVENSON, Penny	Olave	HOCKENSON, Goedert
9	Rodgers, Stafford	D. Harris	LOCKETT, Woods	Ertz, Knox
10	RODGERS, Carr, Cousins	Patterson, Hines	Tolbert
11	Tagovailoa	HINES	Doubs	Kmet
12		J. Robinson, Pacheco, Carter	Doubs, MCKENZIE, Dotson	KMET, FREIERMUTH
13	Winston	Carter, Herbert	MCKENZIE, Pickens, Meyers, Osborn, Collins, Hamler	FREIERMUTH, Okwuegbunam, I. Smith, Henry
14		Z. White, J. Williams	Pierce	NJOKU
15			M. Jones	Fant
16		B. Scott, D. Johnson, Dam. Williams	C. Samuel	HOOPER, Hurst, Alie-Cox