Expert Fantasy Football Mock Draft Recap: 12-Team Half-PPR (May 2024)

We know it’s early days, but getting an idea of where fantasy industry members are valuing certain players can be advantageous, even in May. I rounded up 11 other fantasy football sickos to conduct a 12-team redraft mock in order to get an idea of how the fantasy community is perceiving player values.

All ADP will be from 4for4’s Underdog tool with rankings from our 4for4 ranks. The full draft board will be posted at the bottom of the article, but you can jump to it here.

2024 Fantasy Football Mock Draft

• Roster Settings: 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1 FLEX (RB/WR/TE), 6 Bench Spots
• Scoring of Note: Half-PPR

Draft Participants in Order:

1. Space Ghost Force - @SpaceGhostForce

2. Wilby24 - @Wilby24

3. Matt Price - @MattPriceFF

4. Justin Edwards - @Justin_Redwards

5. Zach - @Zutoo_

6. Sam Wagman - @swagman95

7. Luke Aguinaldo - @Luke4for4VideoDept

8. Jeremy - @Jeremy_D

9. MortonSaltBoy - @Morton_Salt_Boy

10. Jennifer Eakins - @JenEakinsNFL

11. Erich - @nicereiss

12. Harris41 - @Harris41

Rounds 1-3

Takeaways

The early RB vs. WR debate seems to be swinging back toward the pass-catchers early in the 2024 draft cycle. There were 12 RBs drafted in the first three rounds, while 20 WRs came off the board. Only three teams left these rounds with at least two rushers, while three didn’t select an RB at all to start this draft.

The scarcity at the TE position did not cause any panic for this crowd, as only three were selected, as opposed to only two within the first 36 picks last season. One change we’re starting to see in 2024 is managers deciding to let quarterbacks fall out of the first three rounds after three were going near the 2/3 turn in ‘23. The elite tier at the top didn’t out-score the rest of the position like we’re used to, due in part to a “down” year from Patrick Mahomes.

Biggest Reaches

Josh Jacobs (3.05), Isiah Pacheco (3.11)

This was a pretty by-the-books beginning to the draft, so it’s hard to pinpoint anything egregious here. There were two “overpays” at the running back position, though I can’t fault either of the drafters for their process.

Josh Jacobs is coming off of arguably the worst season of his five-year career, gaining only 2.35 yards after contact (53rd/59 qualifying RBs) and accruing only five rushes of 15+ yards (35th) in the process. To his credit, the Raiders offense ranked 27th in total yards on the year while they rotated Aidan O’Connell, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Brian Hoyer, while the offensive line ranked 23rd in running back yards before contact (1.34). That said, he gets a brand new start in an ascending Green Bay Packers offense.

For Isiah Pacheco, drafters are reasonably concerned about his effectiveness in the passing game after he earned only 0.83 yards per route run (41st/61 qualifying backs) and 5.4 yards per reception (55th). But it’s not like they brought in any competition into the backfield, instead re-signing Clyde Edwards-Helaire to a one-year contract. Pacheco may have gone slightly over his ADP (particularly Underdog’s ADP, which is surprisingly low at 55), but the price is right, in my opinion.

Best Values

Jaylen Waddle (3.08), Stefon Diggs (3.10)

Again, we all started up the draft pretty chalky, so I’ll highlight two relative values, though nothing really pops off the page here. Jaylen Waddle makes for an incredible WR3 for Jeremy’s team, as he was the only manager to kick things off with a WR-WR-WR approach. Though his ceiling will always be capped as long as Tyreek Hill is on the field, he is coming off his third straight season with 70+ receptions and 1,000+ yards.

Stefon Diggs finds himself in new digs with the Houston Texans, but I’m a little weary of the 30-year-old receiver moping his way off two teams in his career. The toughest competition for catches he’s been up against was back in 2017-2019 when Adam Thielen was rounding into form. This situation is much different, with Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and a deep set of ancillary pieces to contend with in Houston. If I have any of Diggs this season, it will need to be no earlier than this late-third round price.

Rounds 4-7

Takeaways

We see the “onesie” positions get some love here, as half of the league grabs their quarterback and/or tight end. There were back-to-back onesie selections all over this region of the draft as managers attempted to avoid missing out on an entire tier of selections by the time it snaked back to them.

Biggest Reaches

Zay Flowers (4.07), Rome Odunze (6.06)

Things start to open up here, with more people taking players they like rather than strictly abiding by ADP. Zay Flowers is one of those players who went a little above ADP (5.04) but has some question marks about how much further he can grow from his rookie season. As a rookie, he was schemed touches from the outset, finishing as the WR32 in half-PPR points per game (10.5). There’s a chance he continues to grow in Year 2, but the team will look to have a full season out of tight end Mark Andrews and added Devontez Walker in the Draft and a bona fide RB1 in Derrick Henry.

Rome Odunze is tied to quarterback Caleb Williams for the long term, but he could be quite the pain to roster for most of his rookie season in redraft leagues. On top of fighting veterans D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen, along with a capable tight end pairing (Cole Kmet, Gerald Everett), there is the potential for growing pains with the rookies. The WR33 price here isn’t anything outlandish, but I would rather have my exposure in best ball leagues than deal with the possibility that Odunze doesn’t start making significant dents into fantasy rosters until after the Bears’ Week 7 bye.

Best Values

Rachaad White (4.12), Cooper Kupp (5.03)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had four picks in the top 100 selections of the NFL Draft and opted to wait until No. 125 to add competition into the room for Rachaad White. Bucky Irving profiles as someone who could be a rotational receiving back right out of the gate, but with 4.55 speed at 192 pounds, it could be difficult for the Day 3 back to push the incumbent for a ton of playing time. The Bucs also spent their first-round pick on a center, which should help boost their 30th-ranked mark in running back yards before contact (1.09).

The out-of-nowhere breakout of Puka Nacua has understandably pushed the 31-year-old Cooper Kupp out of the fantasy consciousness a bit. In Kupp’s 11 full games last season, he averaged 8.2 targets, 5.2 receptions, and 66 yards, good enough for 12.1 half-PPR points per game, a mark that would have slotted him into a WR20 finish. Grabbing him here as the WR27 feels like a great value.

Round 8 -11

Takeaways

After a huge lull in running back drafting, teams were eager to get back to the position, including 12 of them in Rounds 8-9. Many of them are part of ambiguous backfields (Austin Ekeler/Brian Robinson, Tony Pollard/Tyjae Spears) or should be taking a majority workload but are difficult to project for an exact percentage (Jonathon Brooks, Zach Moss, Gus Edwards).

Biggest Reaches

Brock Bowers (8.03), J.K. Dobbins (10.01)

According to our Underdog ADP tool, Brock Bowers is the single biggest ADP faller in the “middle rounds” (Rounds 6-12) from pre-to-post NFL Draft. There are concerns over his landing spot, namely, the Aidan O’Connell/Gardner Minshew quarterback situation and the fact that the team spent a second-round pick on Michael Mayer only one year ago. If anyone in this draft was going to spend a little bit to snag him, it would be Jennifer Eakins, who is still in on his Year 1 upside. This excerpt is from her post-draft write-up on the landing spot:

“Many think this landing spot is bad for Bowers and while we won’t get the Sam LaPorta rookie TE1 season we were hoping for paired with an elite QB, he should still put up some nice fantasy numbers in Year 1. The volume will be there and Bowers’ athleticism and talent are bound to shine through. The former Bulldog was leaving Underdog boards as the TE9 in the seventh round pre-NFL Draft. Let’s hope drafters fade him a bit as a Raider and he falls into fantasy TE2 territory. I’m buying any dip and think a top -10 season is well within the realm of possibility due to his upside alone.”

J.K. Dobbins finds himself in an ambiguous backfield (he actually went two picks after teammate Gus Edwards), which is a situation we should attack, but this is too early. According to Spotrac, Dobbins is only guaranteed $50,000 after coming out of so many injury-plagued seasons, and he’s only handled more than 10 carries on one occasion since 2021. I’d rather have rookie Kimani Vidal at the very end of drafts.

Biggest Values

Courtland Sutton (10.08), Jordan Love (10.10), Jake Ferguson (11.02)

Value picks tend to increase the deeper we get into drafts, as people are more willing to reach for players they believe in, leaving the vultures to swoop in. There are three players in a seven-pick stretch I’d like to highlight here.

No matter how bearish you are on the Denver Broncos offense in 2024, it’s hard to see a path in which Courtland Sutton isn’t their leading receiver by season’s end. The two-year-long trade rumors have dissipated since the team moved Jerry Jeudy, and the Broncos need some veteran presence outside of Josh Reynolds. Sutton is also Zutoo’s WR5, so he can pick and choose matchups to get him in the lineup.

Jordan Love had a rocky start to his first full year as a quarterback, but to say he finished well would be an understatement. From Week 12-on, Love was fantasy’s QB4 in points per game while throwing multiple touchdowns in 6-of-7 and rushing for a touchdown in two of them. His once-iffy pass-catching group is suddenly chock full of young studs drafted in the ‘22 and ‘23 Drafts. What a difference a year makes.

Jake Ferguson has seemingly slipped through the cracks this offseason as questions swirl around the Cowboys' offense and how they’re going to handle their high-priced franchise pieces and/or their running back room. With only Brandin Cooks, Jalen Tolbert, Ezekiel Elliott (?), and rookie Ryan Flournoy standing in his way, there’s a definite path for Ferguson to earn the second-most targets on this team.

Rounds 12-14

Takeaways

As we get closer to Fantasy Draft Weekend, there will surely be mocks with both kickers and defenses, but for now, you’ll notice that we’ve skipped the positions in this mock to squeeze in as many player takes and ADP talk as possible. While some of the players you see here will likely be waiver wire fodder in a full draft with D/ST and Ks, it’s still helpful to see who the fantasy community values at the ends of drafts.

Best Values

Jermaine Burton (13.10), Quentin Johnston (14.05)

At this point in the draft, it’s good process to grab guys who have a wide range of outcomes, and here are two such players. Jermaine Burton had a turbulent college career but has the opportunity to carve out a real role in an explosive offense that is now missing Tyler Boyd. Per my post-Draft writeup:

“With no off-field hiccups, there is little to no chance that Trenton Irwin, Andrei Iosivas, Charlie Jones, etc., will keep the rookie off the field, but Burton is likely to be more of a slot receiver than he ever was during his collegiate career. Burton will see the field far more than a typical third-round wide receiver, and his upside would be monstrous if anything unforeseen happens in front of him (like Higgins getting the trade he so desires).”

Quentin Johnston in the final round is a very cheap bet on a sophomore resurgence after a miserable rookie season. The Chargers got a great receiver in Ladd McConkey in the second round of the ‘24 Draft, but if Johnston can show out this summer, he could become Justin Herbert’s second option.

Rookie Costs

Quarterbacks: Jayden Daniels (QB11, 11.04), Caleb Williams (QB15, 12.11)

Running Backs: Jonathon Brooks (RB29, 8.09), Trey Benson (RB33, 9.04), Blake Corum (RB42, 11.06), Jaylen Wright (RB45, 12.09), MarShawn Lloyd (RB46, 12.10), Tyrone Tracy (RB50, 13.05), Ray Davis (RB53, 14.03), Kimani Vidal (RB54, 14.04), Audric Estime (RB55, 14.06)

Wide Receivers: Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR9, 2.03), Malik Nabers (WR25, 4.10), Rome Odunze (WR33, 6.06), Xavier Worthy (WR34, 6.08), Ladd McConkey (WR40, 7.05), Keon Coleman (WR44, 8.04), Brian Thomas Jr. (WR46, 8.07), Adonai Mitchell (WR51, 10.02), Xavier Legette (WR57, 10.11), Ricky Pearsall (WR63, 11.11), Troy Franklin (WR64, 12.02), Devaughn Vele (WR66, 12.06), Roman Wilson (WR68, 13.02), Luke McCaffrey (WR69, 13.07), Jermaine Burton (WR70, 13.10), Ja’Lynn Polk (WR73, 14.02), Javon Baker (WR75, 14.07)

Tight Ends: Brock Bowers (TE10, 8.03), Ben Sinnott (TE17, 14.10)

Final Draft Board

Bottom Line

• There were 57 total RBs drafted and 77 WRs.
• Sixteen QBs were selected in this mock, with just four teams drafting a backup.
• Six of the 12 teams decided to draft more than one tight end, leaving the total number selected at 18.
• The longest any team waited to draft an RB was 6.09, while the furthest any manager waited to select a WR was 2.12.
• QB selection appears to be trending earlier this season, but there is still plenty of value at the position later in drafts in a single-QB format.
• This early in the spring/summer there is plenty of value on draft boards at every position while the hype machine is still churning with no on-field action.