Expert Fantasy Football Mock Draft: 12 Team- PPR (May 2023)

ADP Outliers - Fallers

What comes up must come down. Whether it be positional preferences, injuries, or recent news, every draft has a group of players who go way below their ADP. Here are notable players that went way later than they normally do.

Joe Mixon

4.08-RB18/ Consensus 6.04-RB23

A popular faller in most drafts, not just this one is Bengal’s RB Joe Mixon, dropping in drafts due to off-field concerns. Aaron Stewart from PlayerProfiler thinks the fade has gone too far.

“I like to follow the actions of NFL teams. Despite off the field issues and being a potential cap casualty this offseason, the Cincinnati Bengals lost Samaje Perine and only added fifth-round rookie Chase Brown to the backfield…the message is clear from Cincinnati: Joe Mixon is our lead back for the 2023 season.

Aaron also points out that per PlayerProfiler, he's been top-8 among RBs in opportunity share every season since 2018.

No one doubts that Mixon’s actions have been troubling but it is odd to see him go much later than other RBs coming off injury such as Breece Hall. Despite coming off ACL reconstruction Hall went three rounds ahead of Mixon and it is not like that was just one team’s opinion. At the conclusion of the draft, Aaron Larson told me he was all set to pick Breece at the 3.11 before he was sniped by Chase Vernon.

Terry McLaurin

4.08-RB18/ Consensus 6.04-RB23

One of the more slept-on players every year is Terry McLaurin. Although McLaurin has never finished inside the top-12 he’s also never been outside the top 30 either. Chalk:

“I feel like he’s been a productive WR ever since his rookie year and has WR1 upside even though Washington is trash [every year.”

Alvin Kamara

8.06-RB31 / Consensus 7.05-RB28

Another RB whose off-field issues are tanking his value is Alvin Kamara. Despite avoiding any suspension last season, it would appear punishment in 2023 is imminent. Chalk picked the Saints’ RB in the 8th round, and should Kamara has a minimal suspension or even avoid it completely, Sam Wagman thinks that selection could give Chalk the best team in the mock draft.

Tight End Landscape

Every season it appears that unlike other positions where the tier breaks vary between individuals and companies, there are clear and precise tier breaks at TE. This season is no different. During this mock, only two tight ends were selected in the first two rounds: Travis Kelce in the first and Mark Andrews at the end of the second. The consensus is that those are the big dawgs followed by a tier break of Kyle Pitts, T.J. Hockenson, and George Kittle in whatever order you prefer, then a massive hodge-podge of everyone else. Don’t take my word for it. Here’s what RotoHeat’s Rob Sullivan had to say on the matter:

“When the 5th TE came off the board in Round 6, I decided to wait on the position. Knowing the most wouldn't add a second TE in a 14 round draft I knew I could wait. Grabbing [Dalton] Schultz in the 11th round enabled me to add RBs and WRs depth and grab a serviceable TE that very well may lead his team in targets in 2023.”

My recommendation, barring any major news breaks or injuries, if I missed out on picking Kelce or Andrews I would aim for Kittle four rounds later or swing for the upside of Pitts and Hockenson. Otherwise, you’re likely better off just waiting till the end of your draft.

Running Back Marketplace

Last year when I wrote a similar 4for4 Mock Draft article 13 RBs were selected in the first two rounds. This aligned with the consensus ADP per Fantasy Football Calculator of on average 14 RBs going in Rounds 1 and 2 of 12-team leagues. In this mock draft, I found it interesting that only nine RBs were selected. And although the drop-off from 14 to nine does not sound substantial during this mock it was like a giant game of chicken on who was going to select running backs. No one wanted to take them early. In fact, only two teams went RB-RB to start the draft - something that was commonplace nearly two years prior.

Sure this mock draft is a small sample, it could be very different come August and vary between each individual league. However, everyone in this mock draft is heavily involved and invested in fantasy football. For them, there is no true “offseason.” Over the past four seasons on average eight of the top-24 skill position scorers have been RBs. The data suggest that WRs are safer assets with higher ceilings.

Wrapping It Up

• Rookie hype is a real thing. If you have your personal favorites, familiarize yourself with their ADP and prepare to reach a round or two early to secure them.
• Before your draft, know the ADP trends for players. Who is falling/rising?
• There remains a "Big-2" at TE, followed by a smaller trio. After that, you're better off waiting
• Robust RB builds are becoming a thing of the past and maybe not the most efficient way to build your fantasy roster