Top 200 Value Based Rankings

CeeDee Lamb finished as the fantasy WR1 last year though he was second (to Tyreek Hill) in per-game scoring. He was the WR6 with the eighth-highest per-game average in 2022. Lamb is entering his age-25 season and should have another huge year as his environment (role, quarterback, play-caller) are all unchanged. The only concern is his contract situation but the Cowboys should be able to sort that out by training camp.

The Jets eased Breece Hall in early last season as he was recovering from a torn ACL in October of 2022. He saw just 37 total touches (9.3 per game) in the first four games. From Week 5 on, he led all running backs in total touches (262) and was second to Saquon Barkley in touches per game (20.2). In that span, Hall was the fantasy RB2, which is where I have him ranked this season. Not only is he talented and versatile, but the Jets did a major overhaul of the offensive line, adding veterans Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses, John Simpson, and drafting Olu Fashanue with the No. 11 overall pick. Aaron Rodgers’ return should also help the offense as a whole, creating more scoring opportunities for Hall. He’s a rock-solid pick in the middle of the first round in most formats.

Amon-Ra St. Brown finished as the fantasy WR3 with the fourth-highest per-game average at his position. He was the fantasy WR8 the year before with the 10th-highest per-game production. As he enters his fourth season his stock is as high as ever. His environment (i.e. quarterback, role, play-caller) are all unchanged, so I’m expecting another monster year from the “Sun God.”

The Eagles upgraded from D'Andre Swift to Saquon Barkley, who finished as the fantasy RB16 in 13 games played in 2023. (He was the RB11 on a per-game basis, which didn't quite live up to his RB5 ADP.) Still in his prime, Barkley should fit in nicely with the Eagles' offense, though he's likely to see his receptions decline, at least a bit. Swift's receptions per game fell from 3.4 (with the Lions) to 2.4 last year with the Eagles. Still, Barkley is joining a much better offense and will command bell-cow touches, though touchdowns may also be an issue given the Eagles' ability to run the Brotherly Shove/Tush Push. He should go off the board near the 1st/2nd turn.

Justin Jefferson missed several games with a bad hamstring injury, so he finished as the WR38, but had the fifth-best per-game average. When his injury game (71% snaps) and his first game back (18% snaps) are removed, he averaged 20.0 fantasy points in eight full games, and the last four of those games–7-84, 6-141-1, 5-59, and 12-192-1–were without Kirk Cousins. That’s important since Cousins is now in Atlanta and Jefferson will be catching passes from Sam Darnold and/or J.J. McCarthy. The vast majority of those Week 15 to Week 18 targets were from the capable Nick Mullens (9.1 yards per attempt, 5.2% touchdown rate), so it makes sense that Jefferson’s numbers didn’t dip much when Cousins was out of the picture. He averaged 8.3-136-0.75 on 11.8 targets per game in four games with Cousins and 7.5-119-0.50 on 11.0 targets in four games without Cousins. Either way, he was posting overall WR1-WR3 type numbers with or without Cousins. Jefferson was the overall WR1 in 2022, so there’s upside with him if he’s going off the board WR3 or WR4. The issue is that unlike the other receivers going in the top six, he’s undergoing a quarterback change. The Vikings do have two decent options in Darnold and McCarthy, so if one isn’t getting it done, the other might. There’s a bit of risk here, but Jefferson should have a high-end WR1 season regardless of Cousins’ departure.

Travis Etienne finished the season as the fantasy RB3 with the fifth-highest per-game average in half-PPR formats. He was the RB16 in 2022, but didn’t play big snaps until Week 7. From that point on, he was the RB12. As he enters his third season, Etienne has a clear role and a high floor as the Jaguars’ bellcow back. He should provide solid RB1 numbers again this season.

A.J. Brown finished the 2023 season as the fantasy WR5 with the eighth-highest per-game average. He was the WR4 the year before and had the seventh-highest per-game average, so he has a recent history of midrange to high-end WR1 production. His environment is largely unchanged, though the Eagles hired Kellen Moore to run the offense. Moore’s offenses have finished in the top half of the league in passing yardage in each of his five seasons as offensive coordinator. Brown should once again post solid WR1 numbers.

Isiah Pacheco finished as the fantasy RB13 in 14 games played. He had the 12th-highest per game average. In four postseason games, he averaged 23.3 touches for 93 yards and 1.5 touchdowns, which is high-end RB1 production. He was also regularly playing 70% or more of the snaps in the playoffs. The Chiefs will probably limit his usage somewhat during the regular season, but if that playoff workload is a preview of his 2024 workload, then he has upside from his RB12 ADP. He’s a rock-solid low-end RB1.

After Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles on his first pass attempt of the season, it was clear that Garrett Wilson would be in for a tough season. He finished as the fantasy WR30 after a WR22 finish as a rookie in 2022. Since 2010, among receivers in their first two seasons, Wilson ranked seventh in receptions and 14th in receiving yards. In his last two seasons in Green Bay, Rodgers’ receivers averaged 1.41 (half-PPR) fantasy points per target, which is 45% higher than the 0.97 fantasy points per target offered by the Jets’ quarterbacks last season. Simply applying 1.41 fantasy points per target to Wilson’s 168 targets last season would yield roughly 237 fantasy points, or about what A.J. Brown scored as last year’s fantasy WR5. Matt Harmon’s charting of WIlson’s second season at Reception Perception supports the prospect of a breakout third year. Harmon called Wilson “the CeeDee Lamb of last summer” and says the “hype is real.” I don’t think Wilson’s WR8 ADP is much of a reach at all.

With Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore gone, the Cardinals have the fifth-most vacated targets (217) and Harrison will soak up most of them. He's landing in a fantastic situation from an opportunity and quarterback standpoint and will immediately be in the fantasy WR2 mix with upside from there. Matt Harmon compared Harrison’s profile to Ja’Marr Chase coming out of college and added that Harrison “easily was one of the best prospects” he has charted for Reception Perception.

Puka Nacua posted 105 catches for 1,486 yards and six touchdowns as a rare “league-winner” in his rookie season. His numbers did take a significant dip in the 12 games that Cooper Kupp was active. He averaged 8.6-108-0.40 on 11.6 targets per game in five games that Kupp missed. In the 12 games that Kupp played, Nacua averaged 5.2-79-0.33 on 8.4 targets per game. That’s the difference between elite, top-five type numbers and fringe WR1 production. If Kupp is healthy, Nacua’s WR7 ADP may be wishful thinking. Nacua has overall WR1 upside if Kupp were to miss any more time.

In his second season, Chris Olave finished as the fantasy WR21, though he would have finished a few spots higher had he not missed a game. He was the WR25 as a rookie. His targets increased from 7.6 in 2022 to 9.0 per game last season. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception: “Playing in what quietly may have been the worst conceptual offense in the NFL with a limited quarterback, Olave showed off many traits you want to see from a player who can jump into the superstar tier of receivers.” The good news is that the Saints have a new offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak, who ran a Vikings offense in 2021 that generated the 11th-most passing yards and the ninth-most passing touchdowns. For the last eight games of the 2022 season, Kubiak also took over play-calling for the Broncos, and the team generated the 21st-most passing yards and the 14th-most touchdowns after finishing 15th and 31st, respectively, prior to Kubiak taking over play-calling duties. So there is optimism that Olave will be playing in a significantly better offense and that should help his bottom line.

Drake London finished as the WR40 last season while dealing with suspect quarterback play and questionable usage thanks to run-happy Arthur Smith. Kirk Cousins and former Rams OC Zac Robinson in the fold, the Falcons’ passing game should be more voluminous and more efficient. Cousins is coming off a torn Achilles in his right (plant) foot, but if he’s good to go, he provided 19.1% more fantasy points to his receivers than the Atlanta quarterbacks did last year. The Rams also attempted 10% more passes last season, so when those factors are combined, the Falcons’ receivers could be looking at a 31% increase in fantasy points. Such an increase would have put London at WR21. A breakout is forthcoming.

Joe Mixon is coming off a relatively quiet RB7 finish. He was RB13 on a per-game basis. He will replace Devin Singletary as the Texans' RB1, though Dameon Pierce may have something to say about it. Mixon hasn't cleared 4.1 yards per carry since 2018, but given his workload–19.4 touches per game in the last three seasons–he's been able to compile big numbers. He'll be in the RB2 mix as he enters his age-28 season.

Brandon Aiyuk was highly-efficient again in 2023, turning the 29th-most targets into the 12th-most fantasy points. He was the fantasy WR15 in 2022, so he has a recent history of consistent low-end WR1/high-end WR2 type numbers. Aiyuk got the very rare “all green” chart from Matt Harmon at Reception Perception meaning that he’s one of the “truly elite” receivers (Harmon’s words) in the league. Even if his usage isn’t as high as we’d like, he enjoys good quarterback play and highly-efficient play-calling. Now that he’s signed his extension, it’s all systems go for this young star.

Despite missing a few games due to suspension, Alvin Kamara finished RB11 and had the sixth-highest per-game average. In 2022, he turned in an RB20 finish with the 19th-highest per-game average. He’s turning 29 years old this summer, so the production cliff is looming, but given the makeup of the Saints’ backfield, Kamara is likely to see a heavy workload again in 2024.

Cooper Kupp missed the first four games with a hamstring injury, and posted 8-118 and 7-148-1 in his first two games back before six-straight games with less than 50 yards receiving. In his 11 non-injury games, Kupp averaged 5.3-66-0.45 on 8.5 targets per game, which is a far cry from the 8.5-106-0.85 on 11.1 targets that he averaged from 2021-2022. Some of the decline may be age- or injury-related, and the arrival of a bona fide weapon, Puka Nacua, may also be playing a factor. Still, the 12.1 fantasy points that Kupp averaged in those 11 non-injury games equate to midrange WR2 numbers, and that’s where Kupp is being drafted (WR20) right now. For a player who probably still has WR1-type upside if fully healthy and rolling, Kupp is an intriguing fourth round pick.

Nico Collins had a breakout season, posting 80-1297-8 on 109 targets, finishing as the fantasy WR17. He fared well in Matt Harmon’s charting at Reception Perception: “As long as he just sustains this level of play, Collins will be a staple in the superstar tier of receivers for years to come.” While Collins is an emerging talent, his targets are under pressure with the arrival of Stefon Diggs. The good news is that Collins was very productive when Tank Dell was active (13.5 fantasy points from Week 1 to Week 12, low-end WR1 numbers) and then exploded for 126 yards per game in five healthy games without Dell. It remains to be seen how Diggs impacts the target pecking order, but given Stroud’s built-in chemistry with Collins and Dell, he may be the best real-world WR3 in the league.

In his last 26 games over two seasons with the Cardinals, James Conner has averaged 17.8 touches for 88 total yards and 0.66 touchdowns, or 14.0 (half-PPR) fantasy points per game. That’s what Rachaad White and Breece Hall scored last year as the RB9/RB10 on a per-game basis. For his part, Conner finished RB25 last year with the 15th-highest per-game average. He was the RB17 with the 10th-highest per-game average in 2022. His RB23 ADP appears to be a bargain, though he has a couple of things working against him. He just turned 29, which isn’t a deal-breaker, but he’s entering his eighth season, which is when running backs, on average, see their steepest decline in fantasy points (per Ryan Heath’s excellent Age Curves study). His advanced metrics still look very good. He was sixth in yards before contact per attempt, 12th in yards after contact per attempt, and second in broken tackles per attempt. He was fifth in PFF run grade, and 16th in their receiving grade. The other worry is that the Cardinals added Trey Benson in the third round, and his 4.39 speed will add another dimension to this backfield. It’s probably safe to assume that Conner won’t see 17+ touches per game, but he is efficient enough to post solid RB2 numbers assuming he can stay healthy.

DK Metcalf turned in a WR15 season after finishing WR17 the year before. His targets declined from 8.3 per game in 2022 to 7.5 per game last year. New OC Ryan Grubb brings his efficient scheme from the University of Washington, so the offense should be better and perhaps more pass-happy. Geno Smith has solid deep-ball accuracy as well. Metcalf is shaping up to be a rock-solid fantasy WR2 (with low-end WR1 upside) yet again.

DeVonta Smith was the WR18 after a WR10 finish the year before. He was the WR15 and WR21 on a per-game basis in 2022 and 2023, respectively. His environment is largely unchanged, though the Eagles hired Kellen Moore to run the offense. Moore’s offenses have finished in the top half of the league in passing yardage in each of his five seasons as offensive coordinator, so perhaps Smith sees a bump from the 7.0 targets per game he garnered last year.

After 88-1082-6 in 2021 (WR21) and 99-925-4 in 2022 (WR23), Michael Pittman turned in 109-1152-4 (WR16) last season. He only played two full-ish games (95%+ snaps) with Anthony Richardson and posted 8-97-1 on 11 targets and 1-15 on five targets in those two contests. Richardson did target Pittman on 26.2% of his pass attempts, but he only averaged 6.46 yards per attempt on those targets. There’s no doubt that Pittman is talented, and Richardson was better than expected as a thrower, but his return adds an element of unpredictability when it comes to forecasting Pittman. In roughly 2.6 games of action, Richardson was on pace for about 222 yards and 1.15 touchdowns per game. On the flip side, Gardner Minshew averaged 229 yards and 1.08 touchdowns in his 13 full games as the starter, so maybe the difference isn’t so stark. (Minshew averaged 7.54 yards on 134 targets to Pittman, almost a full yard more than Richardson did.)

In 16 games for the Eagles, D'Andre Swift totaled 1,263 total yards and six touchdowns on 268 touches. He began the year behind Kenneth Gainwell, but took over the starting job quickly once Gainwell missed time. He has a career 4.6 yards per carry and has excellent receiving chops which the Eagles mostly failed to utilize last season. Swift was the RB17 last season and the RB24 the year before, though he was the RB21 on a per-game basis in his last season with the Lions. Khalil Herbert (4.6 YPC) and Roschon Johnson (4.3 YPC) both ran well last year, though Herbert only played 12 games. The Bears running backs combined for 72 total catches, so Swift does have 40- or 50-catch upside once again. Given the size of the contract, Swift will certainly get the first crack at the Bears' RB1 job in 2024. Fantasy-wise, he'll be in the RB2 mix come draft season.

Despite seeing the 15th-most touches (253 through Week 17), Najee Harris finished RB26, two spots behind his more efficient teammate, Jaylen Warren. Warren’s touches increased from 10.6 to 13.9 when comparing the first half of the season to the second half. That increased workload may or may not carry over now that there’s a new offensive coordinator (Arthur Smith) in town. Smith is known to use his players in frustrating ways from a fantasy perspective. Interestingly, Warren’s increased usage did not come at Harris’s expense. Harris saw his touches increase from 14.4 to 18.8 from the first half to the second half of the season. (Harris/Warren combined to average 25.0 touches from Week 1 to Week 8 compared to 32.7 touches from Week 9 to Week 18, so Pittsburgh was much more RB-oriented in the back half of the season.) The Steelers figure to be very run-heavy under Smith so there should be room for both Harris and Warren in 15+ touch roles.

Lamar Jackson finished as the fantasy QB3 in 2023 and had the third-highest per-game average. He missed some time in both 2021 and 2022, but had the eighth-highest and the fifth-highest per-game averages, respectively. His best season was back in 2019 when he finished as the QB1. Odell Beckham has moved on, but the Ravens are expecting Rashod Bateman to pick up the slack. HC John Harbaugh singled Bateman out as a player he expects to make a leap in 2024. Jackson should be a rock-solid top-five option at the position, but appears to lack the rushing touchdown upside with only 10 rushing scores in the last three seasons. Derrick Henry is now in the fold, so the Ravens don’t have much incentive to expose the 215-lb Jackson around the goal line.

In his ninth season, Amari Cooper set career-highs in receiving yards per game (83.3) and yards per reception (17.4) en route to a WR14 finish last year. He was the WR9 in 2022. Cooper is entering his 10th season, which is when receivers’ production tends to fall off of a cliff, per Ryan Heath’s excellent Age Curves study. Cooper’s splits with and without Deshaun Watson were similar, so that’s not much of a concern. Cooper’s career-highs last season are reason to be optimistic that his production won’t fall off too much in 2024. His WR27 ADP seems like a solid value given the age discount.

After a QB1 finish in 2022–his first season WITHOUT Tyreek Hill–Patrick Mahomes had a disappointing QB7 finish last year. It was actually a bit worse than that as he had just the 14th-highest per-game average at his position. Obviously, the Chiefs went on to win their second consecutive Super Bowl, but his fantasy managers probably felt a bit jilted as Mahomes posted four-year lows in passing yards, touchdowns, and rushing touchdowns. It remains to be seen if this is a blip in his career or the start of a trend, but the Chiefs did try to shore up the receiving corps, replacing Marquez Valdes-Scantling with the productive Hollywood Brown and the speedy Xavier Worthy. Rashee Rice is facing some offseason trouble, but the Chiefs now have appealing depth in the receiver room. Mahomes should bounce back with a top-five season.

In his rookie season, Rashee Rice finished the season as the fantasy WR22, though he didn’t begin to play more than half the snaps until Week 7. From that point on, he was the fantasy WR19 with the 16th-highest per game average. Under normal circumstances, he’d be a no-brainer top-20 receiver pick, but Rice has had a tumultuous offseason, as he was charged with two felonies relating to a hit-and-run. He was also under investigation for an assault at a Dallas nightclub. The assault case was dropped, but the (more serious) hit-and-run case is working its way through the judicial system, though he may not face suspension this season since the trial isn’t set to start until December 9th. I’m moving forward on the assumption that he won’t be suspended in 2024.

In his second season, George Pickens posted 63-1140-5 on 106 targets, and was the fantasy WR20. He was the WR27 on a per-game basis. This was with Diontae Johnson garnering 87 targets in 13 games, and now Johnson has moved on to Carolina. Pittsburgh quarterbacks offered 1.15 (half-PPR) fantasy points per target to their receiving corps in 2023. Both Russell Wilson (1.37 fantasy points per target, +19%) and Justin Fields (1.26, +10%) exceeded that number, so Pickens should enjoy improved quarterback play this season whoever starts for the Steelers. Simply applying those increased efficiency numbers to Pickens’ 2023 production yields a finish in the WR9-WR14 range, so there is some optimism that the improved quarterback play could result in a low-end WR1 finish for the third-year receiver. Of course, this assumes that he and Wilson/Fields have a good rapport and that he sees a similar number of targets (106). The latter shouldn’t be a concern, but it is thanks to the arrival of new OC Arthur Smith, who has a history of using his star players in frustrating ways. The good news is that Drake London (6.9 targets per game in both 2022 and 2023), Kyle Pitts (6.5 per game in 2021), and A.J. Brown (7.6 per game in 2020) all saw a similar workload under Smith as Pickens did last season. Unfortunately, London (WR40, WR38) and Pitts (TE5/WR32) failed to deliver WR1/WR2-type numbers, though Brown managed a WR12 finish in Smith’s last season running the Tennessee offense. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception wrote, “I like him as a player and recognize his improvement but his film leaves you with questions about whether he can be a guy a healthy NFL offense can funnel 25 to 30% of the passing targets through.”

Over the past three seasons, Terry McLaurin has the 16th-most targets, 19th-most receptions, and the 14th-most yards. I’m mentioning this because he’s entering his age-29 season and is going off the board as the WR31, exactly where he finished last season. (He was the WR25 in 2021 and the WR18 in 2022.) He’s experiencing another quarterback change, but given Jayden Daniels' accuracy–as charted by Derrick Klassen of Reception Perception–this might be the best quarterback play of McLaurin’s career. My primary concern is that the Commanders go super run-heavy to limit Daniels’ exposure, but as the clear-cut WR1 for a mediocre team with a potentially accurate quarterback, I’m in on McLaurin at WR31.

As a rookie, Zay Flowers was the fantasy WR27 but was the WR34 on a per-game basis. The Ravens let Odell Beckham walk, and didn’t really replace him, so the team is likely to have Flowers, Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor as its top three receivers. Flowers should see plenty of targets and become a more consistent weapon in his second season.

The rookie only played two full games and was knocked out of two other games before halftime, but he still showed flashes of fantasy superstardom accounting for seven touchdowns in roughly 2.6 games worth of action. He posted the highest fantasy point per attempt (passing + rushing) in the league. The Colts re-signed Michael Pittman and drafted another weapon, Adonai Mitchell, and should have a healthy Jonathan Taylor in tow. Only time will tell if Richardson is more of an injury risk than other quarterbacks, but studies have shown that mobile quarterbacks aren’t injured at a higher rate than “pocket” quarterbacks.

Austin Ekeler had 164 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 even though he left early with a high-ankle sprain. He returned in Week 6 and had a run of big games from Week 8 to Week 10, gaining 308 total yards and scoring four touchdowns in that stretch. In his last eight games, he only cleared 75 total yards twice, finishing as the RB29 for the year and the RB23 on a per-game basis. As he enters his age-29 season, he's unlikely to wrest the early-down role from Brian Robinson, but he's likely to operate as the primary pass-catcher out of the Washington backfield.

In his age-31 season, Keenan Allen averaged a career-high 95.6 yards per game, catching 108 passes for 1,243 yards (his most since 2017) and seven touchdowns. And he did it all in 13 games played. He finished WR8 and was the WR3 on a per-game basis, so he's still very much in his prime, though he has missed 11 games in the last two seasons. Since he's playing with a new quarterback in Chicago alongside entrenched WR1 D.J. Moore, Allen's fantasy value is taking a hit as he joins the Bears. He could still post WR2 numbers if he’s able to stay healthy.

Zack Moss filled in admirably for an injured Jonathan Taylor. In the eight games where Moss played at least half the snaps, he averaged 20.9 touches for 94 yards (4.12 yards per carry), and 0.63 touchdowns. The resulting 14.7 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) would have been the eighth-highest last year (ahead of David Montgomery and just behind Jahmyr Gibbs). Moss will likely cede some touches to Chase Brown, who had 50+ total yards in four of his last six games.

As a rookie, C.J. Stroud finished as the fantasy QB12, though he missed a couple of games. It was the ninth-best fantasy performance by a rookie quarterback since 2000. Stroud’s 4,108 yards were the third-highest by a rookie in that span and his 23 touchdowns tie for fifth-highest. Stroud is primed for another starter-caliber season, though they lost a good pass-blocker in tackle George Fant, who was replaced by second-round draft pick Blake Fisher. Stefon Diggs joins breakout stars Nico Collins and Tank Dell in the receiver room, so Stroud has plenty of weapons to throw to. He may be able to crack the top five.

Brooks is recovering from a "clean" ACL tear (per Ian Rapoport). Once cleared, he should quickly beat out the solid-but-not-spectacular Chuba Hubbard and 2023 free agent disappointment Miles Sanders to earn the RB1 job. His upside is capped by the Carolina offense which needs to take a big step forward if it's going to support a bona fide fantasy RB1. The last six second-round running backs who started at least 11 games as rookies averaged 268 touches for 1,286 yards and 9.2 touchdowns. Brooks is an ideal RB3/RB4 that fantasy managers won’t need until the byes start to hit. He has a lot of late-season upside.

Jerome Ford finished as the fantasy RB15 even though his rushing numbers (4.0 YPC, 48 yards per game) were nothing to write home about. He averaged 2.6 catches for 19 yards and 0.29 touchdowns per game, which boosted his fantasy floor. Ford should offer solid fantasy RB2 numbers until Nick Chubb is ready to go, and he may not be a full-go until midseason. The arrival of D’Onta Foreman is a minor concern.

Evan Engram led all tight ends in targets (143), catching 114 passes for 963 yards and four scores. Calvin Ridley was replaced by rookie Brian Thomas and Gabe Davis, so Engram’s role should be relatively unchanged. In other words, he might lead his position in targets again. He turns 30 in September, so a drop in production is possible, but far from certain.

In his rookie season, Jayden Reed finished as the fantasy WR26, though his numbers took a big hit in the eight games that Christian Watson played a full complement of snaps. In those eight games, Reed averaged 3.5 catches for 39 yards and 0.38 touchdowns per game, or 9.7 (half-PPR) fantasy points per game. Those are WR4-type numbers and a far cry from the 4.5 catches for 60 yards and 0.63 touchdowns that he averaged in the eight games that Watson missed or was limited. In those games he averaged 13.5 fantasy points per game, which would have been top 15 at his position. His targets dropped from 6.9 to 4.9 per game when Watson was in the fold. These splits underline the general quandary with the Green Bay receiving corps. It is so deep and talented that Jordan Love will spread the ball around when everyone’s healthy. Watson has seen a hamstring specialist this offseason and they have implemented a plan to equalize the strength of his two hamstrings which is supposed to keep him healthy. Fantasy managers who believe Watson is going to miss a lot of time due to injury can target Jayden Reed as a player who will likely post WR2 numbers while Watson is sidelined. Those managers who believe Watson will stay healthy should avoid Reed at his ADP.

Last year, Derrick Klassen of Reception Perception identified C.J. Stroud as the most accurate passer in last year's draft class. Guess who charted the best this year? That's right, the so-called "running quarterback" Jayden Daniels. Klassen does have some reservations about Daniels' willingness to throw over the middle of the field, but two things are true: 1) Daniels is an accurate passer, and 2) he's going to rack up the rushing yards. My rookie quarterback model predicts 43.9 rushing yards per game for Daniels, which is the third-highest expectation in the 97-player sample behind only Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton. Jackson didn't start until Week 11 of his rookie season, but he was the fantasy QB8 the rest of the way. Newton was the QB3 as a rookie. Rounding out the top five in expected rushing yards were Jalen Hurts (QB8 in his first season as the starter) and Vince Young (QB9 as a rookie). See where this is headed?

I’ve said it before–Nick Chubb is one of the best pure runners in the league. He had two tears–one to his MCL and another to his ACL–in Week 2 of last season and needed two separate surgeries to repair them. Our injury expert, Jeff Mueller, wrote, “What likely is not being reported is that there is a high probability that there was also capsular damage and secondary stabilizer damage, similar to what both JK Dobbins and Javonte Williams dealt with.” Mueller believes that the Browns are protecting themselves (by signing D’Onta Foreman) in case the 28-year-old is “never the same.” Chubb is currently the RB35 off the board and is going six spots ahead of his backfield partner, Jerome Ford. The good news is that Chubb released a video of him squatting an enormous amount of weight. He’ll need to graduate to planting and cutting, but clearly the leg strength is back. In 2022, he finished as the fantasy RB6 after a 13-game RB10 finish the year before, so Chubb is a worthwhile gamble as an RB3 or RB4 in the ninth round due to his potential value in the back half of the season. If he’s practicing in camp, look out.

In his sixth season, Courtland Sutton finished as the WR32, driven by a career-high 10 receiving touchdowns. (He had never caught more than six touchdowns in a season.) Jerry Jeudy was traded to the Browns, so that leaves Sutton as the no-brainer top option for rookie Bo Nix, who seems to be winning the starting job. As it stands, Sutton looks like the best receiving option in what’s shaping up to be a below average passing attack, but someone has to catch the ball and Sutton is a proven producer.

In his 11th season, DeAndre Hopkins posted 75 catches for 1,057 yards and seven touchdowns, which was good enough for a fantasy WR25 finish, though he was the WR32 on a per-game basis. The stretch I’m interested in is the eight games that he played with Will Levis as the starter. In those eight games, Hopkins averaged 4.0 catches for 68 yards and 0.75 touchdowns, which works out to 13.4 (half-PPR) fantasy points, or about what Mike Williams and Stefon Diggs averaged as the WR14/WR15 on a per-game basis last season. Levis targeted Hopkins deep early and often, and Hopkins literally led the league in average air yards (145 per game) during that stretch. He had the 18th-highest yards per route run (2.22) at his position. With Calvin Ridley entering the fray, Hopkins’ targets might be under a little pressure, though I’m more worried about age and injuries catching up to him. New OC Brian Callahan comes from the Zac Taylor coaching tree and Taylor is one of the most pass-happy play-callers in the league. So the Titans’ passing attack should have more volume, offsetting any loss of targets for Hopkins with Ridley in the fold.

With Austin Ekeler vacating 230 touches, the Chargers had a big need at running back and Gus Edwards can run the ball. Prior to 2023, Edwards had never averaged less than 5.0 yards per carry, though he posted a career-low 4.1 yards per carry last season. Jim Harbaugh likes to run the ball, so Edwards could be the centerpiece of the rushing attack or perhaps part of a 1-2 punch in the backfield with either J.K. Dobbins or rookie Kimani Vidal. Entering his age-29 season, he should have a couple of productive seasons left.

Jameson Williams has had a slow start to his career, but that was to be expected since he tore his ACL in the National Championship Game during his final college season. He only played six games as a rookie, catching 1-of-9 targets for 41 yards and a touchdown while adding one carry for 40 yards. (These ridiculous numbers underline both his big-play ability and his inconsistency.) In his second season, after serving a six-game gambling suspension, he caught 24-of-42 targets for 354 yards and two scores while adding three carries for 29 yards and a touchdown. HC Dan Campbell said in February that Williams will “push to be a full-time starter” this season, and during spring practices Williams has been a “man on a mission.” On the plus side, the former No. 12 overall pick has elite speed and with Josh Reynolds moving on, there are snaps and targets up for grabs in a great offense. On the flip side, he’ll at best be the third option in the passing game behind Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, so it seems unlikely that he’ll be a consistent weekly contributor. He might be a “better in best ball” option. Regardless, given his talent and upside, he’s worth a pick in the double-digit rounds.

As a rookie, Jordan Addison finished as the fantasy WR23 thanks in large part to his 10 touchdown catches, though his yardage (911) was third among rookies behind Puka Nacua (1,486) and Rashee Rice (938). He was arrested in early July for suspicion of DUI, which could lead to a suspension. He pled guilty to misdemeanor (140 MPH) speeding charges last summer. In addition to a possible (2-4 game?) suspension, Addison is also dealing with a quarterback change, as some combination of Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy will try to replace Kirk Cousins’ 291 yards and 2.3 touchdowns per game. Addison’s production took a nosedive after Cousins was done for the year. He averaged 4.5-60-0.88 with Cousins and just 3.8-48-0.28 with Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens, and Jaren Hall. That’s a 36% drop in fantasy production.

In his ninth season, Tyler Lockett’s efficiency numbers were down across the board. He set a six-year low in yards per game, a three-year low in yards per catch, and a six-year low in yards per route run. He finished the season as the fantasy WR34 and is going off the board as the WR50. Drafters are favoring Jaxon Smith-Njigba over Lockett, and it makes some sense given Lockett’s age and a somewhat disappointing 2023 season. New OC Ryan Grubb should be able to breathe some life into the offense, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Lockett is once again able to post WR3-type numbers.

In his third season, Joshua Palmer finished as the WR67, though he missed several games and posted the 47th-highest per-game average (8.9 half-PPR points per game). He set career-highs in yards per game (58.1), yards per catch (15.3), and yards per route run (1.71, 38th out of 102 eligible receivers). When Matt Harmon charted Palmer’s rookie season and found that he posted above average success rates on five of the 10 routes on Reception Perception route tree, even if his overall numbers weren’t great. Anyway, it’s two years later and Palmer is coming off of a season where he played at a 65-988-3.4 (WR34) pace. Of his 10 games, Mike Williams played in three, and Keenan Allen played in four. Palmer averaged 74 yards in the four games he played with Allen and without Williams, and one of those games was cut short due to injury. In the three games that he played without both Allen and Williams, Palmer posted 113, 47, and 44 yards, a 68-yard average. So without Williams, Palmer played at a 73-1209-2.4 pace. Those are low-end WR2 numbers. With Allen and Williams gone, Palmer has an opportunity to step into the WR1 role. His primary competition appears to be Ladd McConkey, but who knows, maybe Quentin Johnston or D.J. Chark will have something to say about it. My money is on McConkey/Palmer as the WR1/WR2, but not necessarily in that order. Palmer could easily garner more targets than a rookie who wasn’t all that productive in college. The Chargers will very likely be much more run-heavy under HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman, so the passing pie will be smaller for Justin Herbert and his receivers. Still, if Palmer is a regular contributor seeing 6-8 targets per game, he could be a good fantasy asset, especially since he’s being drafted as a low-end WR5.

The Jets are clearly loading up for what they hope will be a Super Bowl run. Mike Williams should serve as a nice complement to Garrett Wilson. He averaged 83 yards per game in three games last year after back-to-back productive seasons in 2021 (76-1146-9) and 2022 (63-895-4). If he can stay healthy, he'll be in the WR3 mix as Aaron Rodgers' No. 2 option in the passing game.

In his second season, Shaheed increased his catches (28 to 46), his receiving yards (488 to 719), and touchdowns (2 to 5), while adding 723 yards as a returner. He posted a stellar 2.59 yards per route run as a rookie, and followed that up with a solid (if unspectacular) 1.67 yards per route run last season (40th out of 102 eligible receivers). He played roughly 58% of the snaps last season, but that number jumped to 63% in his last six non-injury games. With Michael Thomas out of the way, Shaheed could be a full-time player in 2024, and he should a big part of a more productive and inventive offense under new OC Klint Kubiak.

Marquise Brown enters his age-27 season on the heels of a disappointing 51-574-4, 101-target season, a far cry from the 91-1008-6 that he posted in his final season with the Ravens in 2021. Brown is a sizable upgrade over the recently-released Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Despite a second consecutive Super Bowl win, the Chiefs' passing game had a down year, so there is certainly room for the passing pie to grow, making room for Brown, Rice's ascension, rookie Xavier Worthy, and another quality year from Travis Kelce.

Keon Coleman didn’t chart particularly well at Reception Perception, but the Bills used valuable draft capital to nab him with the first pick in the second round and he’s joining a team that desperately needs playmakers at receiver. It’s worth noting that as a sophomore at Michigan State, he outproduced Jayden Reed in Reed’s senior season.

After a very encouraging QB8 finish in his second season, Lawrence’s numbers regressed a bit in 2023, resulting in a QB14 fantasy finish (and the 19th-highest per game average). As the 17th quarterback off the board, Lawrence is an intriguing late-round option since he has already proven that he has top-10 upside. He lost Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones, but both Christian Kirk and Evan Engram are back, and they are joined by talented rookie Brian Thomas Jr. and free agent Gabe Davis. He also adds about 21 yards rushing per game, giving him a solid fantasy floor. Jaguars receivers had the seventh-most drops, so there was still some meat on the bone for Lawrence and Co.

Jared Goff finished as the fantasy QB8 last year and the key pieces are still in place. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs all return, and the up-and-coming Jameson Williams will likely replace the departed Josh Reynolds. Ben Johnson returns as offensive coordinator. I don’t love the idea of having Goff as my only quarterback since his home/away splits are so extreme. Over the past two seasons, Goff has averaged 21.3 fantasy points per game at home versus just 13.9 per game on the road. This is similar to what we saw with Drew Brees late in his career in New Orleans. As the QB12 off the board, Goff can be easily paired with another quarterback to form a potent committee with the intention of only starting Goff at home or in his very favorable road matchups.

The former first-round pick has totaled a serviceable 121 catches for 1,730 yards and eight touchdowns in 31 games played over the last two seasons, finishing WR54 last season and a career-high WR26 the year before. He'll get a fresh start in Cleveland with Deshaun Watson (and possibly Joe Flacco) at quarterback, but will certainly be behind Amari Cooper in the team's pecking order at receiver. The Browns also have a stud tight end, David Njoku, so Jeudy should be third in expected targets. Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman will also be in the mix.

Last season, Antonio Gibson rushed for a career-low 265 yards while gaining a career-high 389 yards as a receiver. He will probably serve as the primary backup to Rhamondre Stevenson. Still in his prime, his 1,331-yard season (in 2021) seems like a long time ago.

Reception Perception’s Matt Harmon was surprised by Mitchell's tape, and compared him to George Pickens with a possible DeAndre Hopkins ceiling. Mitchell will compete with Josh Downs and Alec Pierce for targets opposite Michael Pittman. (Downs was great last year, per Harmon, by the way.) The Colts are unlikely to be too pass-heavy, so it's unclear whether they'll be able to support two or three fantasy receivers. Given Mitchell's speed, he could thrive as a deep-ball threat for Anthony Richardson, who throws a nice long ball. I'm not optimistic that Mitchell is going to turn into a consistent fantasy performer as long as Pittman remains healthy.

Dontayvion Wicks is probably the best real-world WR4 in the league. (Bo Melton is probably the best WR5 as well.) His snaps will be somewhat limited unless there’s an injury to Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, and/or Romeo Doubs, so he’s not a player that we can start with any confidence unless one or more of those players is sidelined. But in best ball formats he’s an intriguing late-round pick since he will poke his head up from time to time with a big game. Talent-wise, he’s capable of playing at a fantasy WR2 level for a stretch if he gets the requisite snaps.

Kirk Cousins is coming off a torn Achilles but should be ready to go Week 1 for the Falcons. He will certainly breathe life into a suspect Atlanta passing game hamstrung by Desmond Ridder and Arthur Smith's run-heavy tendencies. The franchise hired Zac Robinson away from the Rams to run the offense. He was the pass game coordinator/quarterbacks coach for the last two years. With Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts to throw to, Cousins is set up for success and should be able to continue his low-end QB1 ways.

Michael Wilson will likely be the third option behind Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride, but there was a lot to like about his rookie season. He caught 38 passes for 565 yards and three scores, and played at a 740-yard pace. His yards per route run (1.36) were middle of the pack among the receivers in their first three seasons with at least 35 targets. If he can stay healthy, he should be able to produce 700+ yards and 4-6 touchdowns alongside Harrison and McBride.

Geno Smith followed up a surprise QB6 finish in 2022 with a disappointing QB19 finish last year, despite the addition of Jaxon Smith-Njigba. One reason for optimism heading into this season is the new offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb, who previously ran the offense for the University of Washington. The Huskies were second in passing yards last season after leading the nation in the same category the year before. Grubb’s offense threw the ball at a high rate and played fast, so Smith could benefit if that pace and efficiency translate to the NFL.

The Panthers traded for the "always open" Diontae Johnson, so Legette won't have the pressure of being the team's WR1 as a rookie. Adam Thielen, Jonathan Mingo, etc. don't offer insurmountable competition for a player with Legette's speed, production, and first-round draft capital. If Bryce Young and the offense can take a big step forward, and Legette is locked in as the team's WR2, he could make a fantasy impact in year one, though with Thielen still around, that’s no sure thing.

Some may want to write off Bryce Young after a poor rookie season, but HC Dave Canales might be a quarterback-whisperer. He was instrumental in the career resurgences of both Geno Smith in Seattle and Baker Mayfield last year in Tampa. Young’s rookie season probably couldn’t have gone much worse. He threw for a paltry 2,877 yards, 11 touchdowns, 10 interceptions and posted an anemic 5.5 yards per attempt. But in fairness, his top weapons were 33-year-old Adam Thielen (137 targets), rookie Jonathan Mingo (85), and D.J. Chark (27). The Panthers didn’t exactly set the rookie up for success, but with the addition of Canales and the incredible route-running of Diontae Johnson, things are looking up.

With Kirk Cousins leaving for Atlanta, the Vikings have a hole at quarterback and Sam Darnold is not a bad stopgap option as the franchise waits for J.J. McCarthy to be ready. In six starts for the Panthers in 2022, Darnold averaged a healthy 8.2 yards per attempt and threw seven touchdowns against three picks. He also averaged 18 yards rushing. In his lone 2023 start for the 49ers, he completed 16 of 26 passes for 189 yards and a touchdown and added 19 yards and a touchdown as a runner. If he enters the season as the starter, which seems likely, he'll have good upside as a QB3-type who has great weapons and can run.

The Broncos will be paying the vast majority of Russell Wilson's salary, so this is a low-risk signing for the Steelers. Wilson threw for 3,070 yards and 26 touchdowns against only eight interceptions in 15 games last season. George Pickens should benefit from Wilson's deep ball, though with new OC Arthur Smith designing the offense, it's likely to be a run-heavy attack. Wilson is an intriguing QB2/QB3 type but he’ll have to hold off Justin Fields.

Alexander Mattison was anointed the Vikings' starter heading into the 2023 season and it didn't go so great. Through the first 11 weeks, prior to injury and losing snaps to Ty Chandler, he was the fantasy RB28. He was the RB21 in terms of ADP, so it wasn't a disaster, but he failed to produce at the same level as he did in previous opportunities as the starter. He'll likely serve as Zamir White's direct backup in Las Vegas.

With Tee Higgins in the fold, Jermaine Burton will be the No. 3 option for Joe Burrow. He has off-field/locker-room concerns, but talent-wise, Matt Harmon is a big fan: "Jermaine Burton has the type of Reception Perception profile I would bet on five times over." Again, there are character questions, but the upside is obvious. With Tyler Boyd out of the way, Burton should see snaps in three-receiver sets at a minimum.