Top 200 Value Based Rankings

Christian McCaffrey is the first running back off the board for good reason. He finished as the RB1 in 2023 after an RB2 finish the year before. Last season, he scored 358 (half-PPR) fantasy points, which was over 100 more than the RB2, Raheem Mostert. He just turned 28 years old, so age isn’t much of a concern. There was some question whether he would see a mega workload with Elijah Mitchell healthy, but Mitchell’s status didn’t matter–McCaffrey averaged 21.2 touches per game, which was second only to Kyren Williams. He should continue to be the focal point of the 49ers’ highly-efficient offense.

Last season, Tyreek Hill finished as the fantasy WR2, though he had the highest per-game average (19.9 fantasy points per game) at his position. He was the fantasy WR2 in 2022 as well, and had the third-highest per-game average. He’s entering his age-30 season, which is his ninth-season in the league. According to Ryan Heath’s excellent Age Curves study, receivers see a slight decline in production in their ninth season before a much bigger drop in their 10th year. I’m not worried about Hill’s age at all, other than the tendency for older players to come down with nagging injuries more frequently than their younger counterparts. He’s a rock-sold WR1.

Bijan Robinson’s rookie season was inconsistent thanks in no small part to HC Arthur Smith’s insistence of limiting Robinson’s touches for most of the season. However in the 15 games where Robinson played at least 60% of the snaps, he averaged 14.5 (half-PPR) fantasy points per game, which would have been the 12th-highest per-game average last season. If Robinson gets Christian McCaffrey/Kyren Williams treatment–i.e. snap shares averaging 80%+ instead of last year’s 67.9%–then Robinson should live up to his RB3 ADP. Coming over from the Rams, Zac Robinson is the new offensive coordinator, and last season he and Sean McVay fed Kyren Williams to the tune of 21.7 touches per game. If Robinson sees that sort of work at his same fantasy point per touch efficiency, then he would average around 17.3 fantasy points per game, good enough to finish RB3 on a per-game basis last season.

Taylor missed the first few games due to an ankle injury (and subsequent surgery) from the 2022 season and didn’t play 50%+ of the snaps until Week 7. From that point on he had the third-highest per-game average (16.8) at his position even though he missed three games due to a thumb injury later in the season. He missed six games in 2022, but played 15 and 17 games in his first two seasons. In 2021 he was the overall RB1, outscoring the RB2 (Austin Ekeler) by 60 points. Taylor should have a productive 2024, though there are a couple of areas of concern. Anthony Richardson only targeted his running backs on 10 of his 72 pass attempts (13.9%) and in the two full games that Richardson played, he saw three carries inside the opponents’ five-yard line while Indy running backs saw five carries. It’s obviously a small sample size, and Taylor’s availability may change the ratio, but Richardson’s 38% goal-line carry rate is pretty high. (For reference, Jalen Hurts had a 47% goal-line carry rate last season.) Taylor is a fantasy RB1, but perhaps lacks the receiving and touchdown upside of the backs being drafted ahead of him.

Derrick Henry finished as the RB8 in his age-29 season running behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Tennessee running backs averaged 2.2 yards before contact per attempt last season, while the Ravens were second (3.2) in the league. Henry posted the No. 6 rushing grade at PFF, and was 11th in yards after contact per attempt and 16th in broken tackles per attempt. His age is a minor concern, but if Henry can stay healthy he has the potential to put up monster numbers in the Baltimore offense, which has generated an average of 15.0 (running back) rushing touchdowns since 2020. Working backward, he has finished RB8, RB4, RB14 (eight games played), RB2, and RB3 in the last five seasons. He has legit 20-touchdown upside in the Baltimore offense.

A.J. Brown finished the 2023 season as the fantasy WR5 with the eighth-highest per-game average. He was the WR4 the year before and had the seventh-highest per-game average, so he has a recent history of midrange to high-end WR1 production. His environment is largely unchanged, though the Eagles hired Kellen Moore to run the offense. Moore’s offenses have finished in the top half of the league in passing yardage in each of his five seasons as offensive coordinator. Brown should once again post solid WR1 numbers.

The Rams drafted Blake Corum to take some of the load off of Kyren Williams, but I still think Williams is a good bet for a top-five season. He was the RB2 on a per-game basis while handling 21.7 of the team’s 28.0 backfield touches in his 12 games played. Even if his touches fall to the 18.0-19.0 range–or 64% to 68% of the team’s backfield touches–he’s still looking at 16.5-17.5 (half-PPR) fantasy points per game. That would have been good enough to remain the RB2 behind McCaffrey.

Travis Etienne finished the season as the fantasy RB3 with the fifth-highest per-game average in half-PPR formats. He was the RB16 in 2022, but didn’t play big snaps until Week 7. From that point on, he was the RB12. As he enters his third season, Etienne has a clear role and a high floor as the Jaguars’ bellcow back. He should provide solid RB1 numbers again this season.

Josh Allen finished as the QB1 last year after finishing QB2 in 2022. He’s currently the first quarterback off the board, which is a bit surprising since he’s lost both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason. They have been replaced by Curtis Samuel and second-round pick Keon Coleman, so it looks like a downgrade in the receiver room. The other variable is Joe Brady as offensive coordinator. In nine games under Brady (including two playoff games), Allen averaged 233 yards and 1.56 touchdowns, with 47 yards and 1.22 touchdowns as a runner. This works out to 26.8 fantasy points per game thanks to those eye-popping rushing numbers. His averages in the first 10 weeks under Ken Dorsey: 260 yards and 1.90 touchdowns, with 25 yards and 0.70 touchdowns as a runner. That works out to 22.5 fantasy points per game. Under Brady, his rush attempts were 9.2 per game compared to 4.8 per game under Dorsey, so it’s clear that his rushing floor is pretty high heading into 2024.

Isiah Pacheco finished as the fantasy RB13 in 14 games played. He had the 12th-highest per game average. In four postseason games, he averaged 23.3 touches for 93 yards and 1.5 touchdowns, which is high-end RB1 production. He was also regularly playing 70% or more of the snaps in the playoffs. The Chiefs will probably limit his usage somewhat during the regular season, but if that playoff workload is a preview of his 2024 workload, then he has upside from his RB12 ADP. He’s a rock-solid low-end RB1.

With Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore gone, the Cardinals have the fifth-most vacated targets (217) and Harrison will soak up most of them. He's landing in a fantastic situation from an opportunity and quarterback standpoint and will immediately be in the fantasy WR2 mix with upside from there. Matt Harmon compared Harrison’s profile to Ja’Marr Chase coming out of college and added that Harrison “easily was one of the best prospects” he has charted for Reception Perception.

Sam LaPorta finished as the fantasy TE1 as a rookie, which is an incredible accomplishment given the history of rookies at the position. It’s unusual for rookie tight ends to find immediate success, but LaPorta posted 86 catches for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns. Those were the most catches, the second-most yards (to Kyle Pitts), and the most touchdowns (tied with Rob Gronkowski) among rookie tight ends since 2003. LaPorta’s position-leading 196.3 half-PPR fantasy points were just the 19th-most by a tight end since 2010. He’s a good bet to repeat as the TE1 since he should only get better in his second season, and his excellent environment in the Detroit offense is unchanged.

Puka Nacua posted 105 catches for 1,486 yards and six touchdowns as a rare “league-winner” in his rookie season. His numbers did take a significant dip in the 12 games that Cooper Kupp was active. He averaged 8.6-108-0.40 on 11.6 targets per game in five games that Kupp missed. In the 12 games that Kupp played, Nacua averaged 5.2-79-0.33 on 8.4 targets per game. That’s the difference between elite, top-five type numbers and fringe WR1 production. If Kupp is healthy, Nacua’s WR7 ADP may be wishful thinking. Nacua has overall WR1 upside if Kupp were to miss any more time.

Drake London finished as the WR40 last season while dealing with suspect quarterback play and questionable usage thanks to run-happy Arthur Smith. Kirk Cousins and former Rams OC Zac Robinson in the fold, the Falcons’ passing game should be more voluminous and more efficient. Cousins is coming off a torn Achilles in his right (plant) foot, but if he’s good to go, he provided 19.1% more fantasy points to his receivers than the Atlanta quarterbacks did last year. The Rams also attempted 10% more passes last season, so when those factors are combined, the Falcons’ receivers could be looking at a 31% increase in fantasy points. Such an increase would have put London at WR21. A breakout is forthcoming.

Travis Kelce finished TE2, but it was a down year by his standards. His 984 yards were his fewest since 2015, and well off his 2016-2022 average of 1,230 yards per season. His 11.5 per-game average (half-PPR) was a pretty significant drop from 2022 (15.9) and 2021 (13.7). Both his yards per reception (10.6) and his yards per target (8.1) were career-lows. I think it’s safe to say that the soon-to-be 35-year-old’s elite production days are behind him, though he still offers high-end TE1 production in the Chiefs’ potent offense.

Davante Adams finished the 2023 season as the fantasy WR13 but saw the second-most targets, so he wasn’t all that efficient thanks to suspect quarterback play. Enter Gardner Minshew–maybe?–who hopes to start for the Raiders after 13 starts for the Colts last season. Minshew provided 1.17 (half-PPR) fantasy points per target to his receivers last year while Raiders quarterbacks combined to offer 1.18 fantasy points per target, so it’s not a sure thing that Minshew is much of an upgrade for Adams and Co. Adams averaged 6.4 catches for 68 yards and 0.50 touchdowns (on 11.0 targets) in 10 games with Aidan O’Connell at quarterback. Those are high-end WR2-type numbers.

In his second season, Chris Olave finished as the fantasy WR21, though he would have finished a few spots higher had he not missed a game. He was the WR25 as a rookie. His targets increased from 7.6 in 2022 to 9.0 per game last season. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception: “Playing in what quietly may have been the worst conceptual offense in the NFL with a limited quarterback, Olave showed off many traits you want to see from a player who can jump into the superstar tier of receivers.” The good news is that the Saints have a new offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak, who ran a Vikings offense in 2021 that generated the 11th-most passing yards and the ninth-most passing touchdowns. For the last eight games of the 2022 season, Kubiak also took over play-calling for the Broncos, and the team generated the 21st-most passing yards and the 14th-most touchdowns after finishing 15th and 31st, respectively, prior to Kubiak taking over play-calling duties. So there is optimism that Olave will be playing in a significantly better offense and that should help his bottom line.

Rachaad White has a career 3.7 yards per carry, but he finished RB5 last season after an RB38 finish the year before. He didn’t play starter snaps until Week 10 of 2022, but he was the RB25 down the stretch. White turned in a top-five season in 2023 thanks to volume–he turned 336 touches into 1,539 yards and nine scores. Given that White’s production was volume-based, I’m a bit worried that he may lose some touches to fourth-round pick Bucky Irving. White was 48th (out of 59 eligible backs) in PFF’s rushing grade, though he had a similar rushing grade as Irving’s when comparing their final year collegiate rushing grades. If he retains his high workload, then he could once again post RB1-type numbers. If that usage takes a hit, he may be more of a fantasy RB2.

Joe Mixon is coming off a relatively quiet RB7 finish. He was RB13 on a per-game basis. He will replace Devin Singletary as the Texans' RB1, though Dameon Pierce may have something to say about it. Mixon hasn't cleared 4.1 yards per carry since 2018, but given his workload–19.4 touches per game in the last three seasons–he's been able to compile big numbers. He'll be in the RB2 mix as he enters his age-28 season.

Cooper Kupp missed the first four games with a hamstring injury, and posted 8-118 and 7-148-1 in his first two games back before six-straight games with less than 50 yards receiving. In his 11 non-injury games, Kupp averaged 5.3-66-0.45 on 8.5 targets per game, which is a far cry from the 8.5-106-0.85 on 11.1 targets that he averaged from 2021-2022. Some of the decline may be age- or injury-related, and the arrival of a bona fide weapon, Puka Nacua, may also be playing a factor. Still, the 12.1 fantasy points that Kupp averaged in those 11 non-injury games equate to midrange WR2 numbers, and that’s where Kupp is being drafted (WR20) right now. For a player who probably still has WR1-type upside if fully healthy and rolling, Kupp is an intriguing fourth round pick.

Mark Andrews was the TE4 on a per-game basis and the TE3, T.J. Hockenson, may miss the start of the season as he recovers from an ACL tear. Entering his age-29 season, Andrews should be fully healthy after missing a big chunk of time late last season with a nasty ankle injury. Since his rookie season, he has never averaged less than 50 yards per game and has averaged 0.48 touchdowns per game in his last three seasons. If he can play 16 games at those rates, he’s looking at 800 yards and 7.7 touchdowns.

Jaylen Waddle is a difficult player to project in 2024. We know he’s talented–his 2022 WR7 finish and good charting over at Reception Perception underscore that–but he finished the 2023 season as the fantasy WR29 and had just the 23rd-highest per-game average. When his injury game in Week 16 is removed, his per-game average bumps up to WR21. Waddle does have midrange WR1 upside if Tyreek Hill were to miss time, but the arrival of Odell Beckham, Jonnu Smith, and Malik Washington means that Waddle’s targets are under some pressure.

D.J. Moore had an outstanding 2023 season, finishing as the fantasy WR7 after a WR19 finish the year before. Justin Fields is out, Caleb Williams is in, so Moore should be getting a quarterback upgrade. The Bears have a new OC, Shane Waldron, whose Seattle offenses finished 14th and 11th in passing yards in the last two seasons. The team also acquired target-hog Keenan Allen and drafted the talented Rome Odunze in the first round, so Moore’s target competition got a lot stiffer. Even with a quarterback and possible OC upgrade, it will be hard for Moore to overcome all the target competition to remain a fantasy WR1. His early ADP (WR18) seems reasonable, but given how well Allen played last year when healthy, it’s no sure thing that Moore leads this team in targets.

As a rookie, C.J. Stroud finished as the fantasy QB12, though he missed a couple of games. It was the ninth-best fantasy performance by a rookie quarterback since 2000. Stroud’s 4,108 yards were the third-highest by a rookie in that span and his 23 touchdowns tie for fifth-highest. Stroud is primed for another starter-caliber season, though they lost a good pass-blocker in tackle George Fant, who was replaced by second-round draft pick Blake Fisher. Stefon Diggs joins breakout stars Nico Collins and Tank Dell in the receiver room, so Stroud has plenty of weapons to throw to. He may be able to crack the top five.

Trey McBride saw a bump in playing time in Week 8 and was the fantasy TE4 the rest of the way. He had the fourth-highest yards per route run (2.08) among tight ends in that span, and garnered the third-most targets (8.5 per game). The third-year tight end should serve as the No. 2 option behind rookie Marvin Harrison Jr., but Harrison’s arrival might put a dent in McBride’s heavy late-season usage.

Despite missing a few games due to suspension, Alvin Kamara finished RB11 and had the sixth-highest per-game average. In 2022, he turned in an RB20 finish with the 19th-highest per-game average. He’s turning 29 years old this summer, so the production cliff is looming, but given the makeup of the Saints’ backfield, Kamara is likely to see a heavy workload again in 2024.

Raheem Mostert was basically a “league-winner” last season as he absolutely crushed his RB41 ADP by finishing as the fantasy RB3. After gaining 1,093 total yards and scoring five total touchdowns for the Dolphins in 2022, Mostert posted 1,187 total yards and scored an eye-popping 21 touchdowns last year. So why is he the RB26 off the board in early drafts? For one, he has the extremely talented De’Von Achane nipping at his heels. The other factor is that he’s no spring chicken at 32 years old, and the production drop off comes for everyone. Still, RB26 seems too low for a player who just finished in the top five and is in basically the same situation. In Mostert’s last four games with Achane, he averaged 15.8 touches for 61 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game.

One has to think that the Packers offered Aaron Jones more than $7 million for one season in a restructured deal, so this may be a spite signing for Jones as he'll try to stick it to his old team. Jones was outstanding down the stretch, gaining 135, 130, 141, 131, and 116 total yards in five "must-win" games. Talent-wise, he should easily lead the Minnesota backfield, but the Vikings will want to use Ty Chandler to keep Jones fresh and healthy. His arrival puts a pretty serious dent in Chandler's upside. Managers will definitely want to start Jones in Week 4 and Week 17, when the Vikings face the Packers.

The rookie only played two full games and was knocked out of two other games before halftime, but he still showed flashes of fantasy superstardom accounting for seven touchdowns in roughly 2.6 games worth of action. He posted the highest fantasy point per attempt (passing + rushing) in the league. The Colts re-signed Michael Pittman and drafted another weapon, Adonai Mitchell, and should have a healthy Jonathan Taylor in tow. Only time will tell if Richardson is more of an injury risk than other quarterbacks, but studies have shown that mobile quarterbacks aren’t injured at a higher rate than “pocket” quarterbacks.

Zamir White is slated for RB1 duties after Josh Jacobs moved onto Green Bay. White filled that role for four games late last season, gaining 83, 145, 106, and 121 total yards in consecutive games. He scored one touchdown, caught nine passes, and was the fantasy RB8 in that span. Among the 41 running backs with 25+ total carries in the last four weeks, White was ninth in yards after contact per attempt. He had the No. 20 rushing grade (out of 55 backs) in that span per PFF, and he fared well as a pass-blocker.

Dalton Kincaid was the fantasy TE15 as a rookie, though he flashed TE1-type production when Dawson Knox was out of the lineup. In five games without Knox, Kincaid averaged 6.2 catches for 56 yards and 0.40 touchdowns on 7.4 targets per game. (He averaged 3.8-36-0.0 on 4.9 targets in 11 games with Knox, which is a bit worrisome since Knox is returning.) Yes, Stefon Diggs (160 targets) and Gabe Davis (81) are gone, so there are a ton of targets up for grabs. Kincaid should easily see 7-8 targets per game, but there’s no guarantee that will happen with Knox soaking up tight end snaps. Kincaid was 14th in yards per route run, though he was 10th from Week 8 to Week 13, while Knox was out. It would be coaching malpractice for the Bills to take Kincaid off the field consistently given the loss of Diggs and Davis, so I'm betting on a consistent uptick in usage. Also, while Kincaid has already broken out, tight ends tend to make their biggest leap from year one to year two.

Stefon Diggs finished as the fantasy WR15 last season but saw the eighth-most targets, and that sort of usage is unlikely to follow him to Houston, where he joins a talented receiving corps which features Nico Collins and Tank Dell. This receiver room may be difficult to project on a weekly basis if everyone’s healthy. Now 30 years old, Diggs should continue to have productive football ahead of him, but as he enters his 10th season, he’s approaching a pretty significant production cliff according to Ryan Heath’s excellent Age Curves study. His WR22 ADP seems a bit optimistic for a soon-to-be 31-year-old receiver who is changing teams.

Over the past three seasons, Terry McLaurin has the 16th-most targets, 19th-most receptions, and the 14th-most yards. I’m mentioning this because he’s entering his age-29 season and is going off the board as the WR31, exactly where he finished last season. (He was the WR25 in 2021 and the WR18 in 2022.) He’s experiencing another quarterback change, but given Jayden Daniels' accuracy–as charted by Derrick Klassen of Reception Perception–this might be the best quarterback play of McLaurin’s career. My primary concern is that the Commanders go super run-heavy to limit Daniels’ exposure, but as the clear-cut WR1 for a mediocre team with a potentially accurate quarterback, I’m in on McLaurin at WR31.

Kyler Murray sat out the first nine games after tearing his ACL late in the 2023 season. From Week 10 to Week 17, he was the fantasy QB10. That mirrored the QB8 production he provided in the 10 games prior to his injury in 2022. He was the QB10 in 2021 but had the fourth-highest per-game average that year. Hollywood Brown has been replaced by Marvin Harrison Jr., which looks like an upgrade. Murray also has other competent weapons like Trey McBride, Michael Wilson, and Greg Dortch. Murray’s rushing was down a little when compared to pre-injury 2022, and he should be fully healthy heading into the 2024 season. He’s a solid QB1.

Before his groin/core injury in Week 13, Christian Kirk was the fantasy WR23 with the No. 28 per-game average. In 2022, he was the fantasy WR14. There have been a lot of changes in the Jaguars’ receiving corps, with Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones departing, and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis joining the team. The 27-year-old’s role shouldn’t change much from the last two seasons, so Kirk should once again deliver mid- to low-end WR2 value at the cost of a sixth-rounder (WR30).

Flashback to the 2021 season: Kyle Pitts is a rookie and has a competent quarterback (Matt Ryan) and offensive coordinator (Dave Ragone) willing to feature him. He catches 68-of-110 targets for 1,026 yards and one score. (He should have caught 4.1 touchdowns, according to 4for4’s expected touchdowns per our data scientist Kevin Zatloukal.) That year, he finished as the TE5 and had the third-best fantasy season by a rookie tight end since the 2000 season. He posted the fourth-highest yards per route run at his position. The last two seasons have been major disappointments, but Pitts has been dealing with subpar quarterback play and a play-caller in Arthur Smith who often refused to feature his best players. Now he has Kirk Cousins throwing the ball and Zac Robinson (of Sean McVay’s coaching tree) calling the plays. I think he has a great chance to see 100+ targets and pick up where he left off as a rookie.

Last season, Dak Prescott finished as the fantasy QB4 and had the fifth-highest per-game average. He missed some time in 2022, but had the 13th-highest per-game average, and he was the QB9 in 2021. So he has a long history of starter-level numbers. The Cowboys return most of Prescott’s weapons, losing Tony Pollard and Michael Gallup to free agency. The key receivers–breakout star CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, and Jake Ferguson–are all back. Dallas lost some talent along the offensive line, but they used premium draft capital to shore up the unit. Prescott should have another solid season.

Joe Burrow was the QB17 through 10 weeks, before he suffered a season-ending wrist injury in Week 11. After a very rough start–Burrow was the QB31 through the first four weeks!–he settled in and was the QB6 from Week 5 to Week 10. This production was more in line with his QB4 finish in 2022 and his QB6 finish in 2021. We can probably write off those early-season struggles as an aberration. The Bengals lost Tyler Boyd in free agency, but added the talented Jermaine Burton in the Draft. At tight end, they replaced Irv Smith with Mike Gesicki, who will join mini-breakout Tanner Hudson and Drew Sample in the tight end room. Burrow should post solid QB1-type numbers in 2024.

The relationship between the Steelers and Diontae Johnson had apparently soured so the team shipped him off to Carolina. He's entering the final year of his contract so we'll see if the Panthers give him a new deal. If not, he’ll be extremely motivated to put up huge numbers. Regardless, he'll be a major upgrade to the team's receiver room and will soak up plenty of targets from Bryce Young, who despite inefficient numbers was able to support Adam Thielen as the fantasy WR11 through 11 weeks last year. Johnson is entering his age-28 season, so we shouldn't be worried about a drop-off just yet–his struggles last season were mostly environmental. He's one of the league's best route-runners and will immediately become Young's top target. Anyone who believes that Young is at least a mediocre NFL quarterback should be all over Johnson at his WR37 ADP.

The conventional wisdom was that Tyjae Spears would take over the starting job with Derrick Henry moving on, but the Titans moved quickly in free agency to lock up Tony Pollard, who had a disappointing fantasy season in 2023. He was drafted RB6 but finished RB18 coming off a broken leg in January of 2023. There is reason to believe that Pollard’s explosiveness could return in his second full season after the injury. Entering the 2023 season, he was one of the most efficient and exciting backs in the game, but the fantasy community soured on him quickly as he failed to provide first-round production. He averaged 5.3 YPC on 323 combined carries in 2021 and 2022, leading the league in yards after contact per attempt in 2022. Spears isn’t going anywhere, so the two backs will likely form a 1-2 punch for the Titans in 2024.

Jordan Love was the fantasy QB15 through the first nine weeks, which wasn’t a bad start considering he was the QB26 in 2023 ADP. From Week 10 to Week 17, he was the fantasy QB2 behind only Dak Prescott. He finished with 4,159 yards and 32 touchdowns, adding a solid 247 yards and four touchdowns as a runner. That made him the QB5 in fantasy and the best draft day value at his position. While his receiving corps lacks star power, it is arguably the deepest receiver room in the league, with Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, and Bo Melton providing timely and productive play whenever called upon. Love also has a couple of talented young tight ends in Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft. As this group grows together, Love is a good bet for another top-10 finish and has proven top-five upside.

Devin Singletary finished RB30 last year, one spot below Austin Ekeler. He was the RB40 on a per-game basis, but didn't play starter's snaps until Week 9. From that point on, he was the fantasy RB9 and was the RB20 on a per-game basis, so he will be undervalued heading into 2024 if he’s slated to handle bell-cow duties for the Giants. He averaged 89 total yards (and 4.56 yards per carry) once he took over in Week 9, though his yards after contact per attempt (43rd of 51 running backs with 50+ carries in that span) and his PFF rushing grade (29th of 60 qualified backs) were nothing to write home about. The Giants drafted Tyrone Tracy in the fifth round, and he may carve out a role on third downs and in the return game.

In his rookie season, Jayden Reed finished as the fantasy WR26, though his numbers took a big hit in the eight games that Christian Watson played a full complement of snaps. In those eight games, Reed averaged 3.5 catches for 39 yards and 0.38 touchdowns per game, or 9.7 (half-PPR) fantasy points per game. Those are WR4-type numbers and a far cry from the 4.5 catches for 60 yards and 0.63 touchdowns that he averaged in the eight games that Watson missed or was limited. In those games he averaged 13.5 fantasy points per game, which would have been top 15 at his position. His targets dropped from 6.9 to 4.9 per game when Watson was in the fold. These splits underline the general quandary with the Green Bay receiving corps. It is so deep and talented that Jordan Love will spread the ball around when everyone’s healthy. Watson has seen a hamstring specialist this offseason and they have implemented a plan to equalize the strength of his two hamstrings which is supposed to keep him healthy. Fantasy managers who believe Watson is going to miss a lot of time due to injury can target Jayden Reed as a player who will likely post WR2 numbers while Watson is sidelined. Those managers who believe Watson will stay healthy should avoid Reed at his ADP.

At first glance, Worthy's targets may be initially blocked by Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and Marquise Brown, but Kelce is no spring chicken, Rice is dealing with legal issues (though it doesn’t look like he will be suspended this season), and Brown dealing with an injury. Not since Tyreek Hill have the Chiefs had a receiver with this kind of speed (4.21 40-yard dash), and HC Andy Reid will scheme ways to use it from the get-go.

Brian Thomas Jr. joins Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and Gabe Davis to provide a potent receiving corps for Trevor Lawrence. Talent-wise, Thomas could be a top-two option for Jacksonville, but it will be a challenge to unseat Engram (8.4 targets per game) or Kirk (7.1) in terms of targets. However, Calvin Ridley vacated 8.0 targets per game, and Zay Jones (7.1) was also cut, so there are snaps and targets available for both Thomas and Davis. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception said that Thomas has "earned his standing as the first name mentioned" after the top-three receivers in the 2024 draft class, so he’s a breakout candidate in his first season.

David Njoku finished the season as the TE5 in half-PPR scoring, setting career-highs in receptions (81), yards (882), and touchdowns (6). He is the TE9 off the board in early drafts, but I think he can be lumped in a tier that includes Jake Ferguson, Dallas Goedert, Brock Bowers, Cole Kmet, and perhaps Taysom Hill and Dalton Schultz as well. Njoku simply has not produced consistently with Deshaun Watson. In the 11 games that they’ve played together over the past two seasons, Njoku has averaged just 3.8-36-0.27 on 5.7 targets per game while posting 5.1-59-0.37 on 7.4 targets per game in the 19 games played with literally anyone else at quarterback. Unless those splits are an aberration, Njoku is unlikely to live up to his TE9 ADP.

Zack Moss filled in admirably for an injured Jonathan Taylor. In the eight games where Moss played at least half the snaps, he averaged 20.9 touches for 94 yards (4.12 yards per carry), and 0.63 touchdowns. The resulting 14.7 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) would have been the eighth-highest last year (ahead of David Montgomery and just behind Jahmyr Gibbs). Moss will likely cede some touches to Chase Brown, who had 50+ total yards in four of his last six games.

In his 11th season, DeAndre Hopkins posted 75 catches for 1,057 yards and seven touchdowns, which was good enough for a fantasy WR25 finish, though he was the WR32 on a per-game basis. The stretch I’m interested in is the eight games that he played with Will Levis as the starter. In those eight games, Hopkins averaged 4.0 catches for 68 yards and 0.75 touchdowns, which works out to 13.4 (half-PPR) fantasy points, or about what Mike Williams and Stefon Diggs averaged as the WR14/WR15 on a per-game basis last season. Levis targeted Hopkins deep early and often, and Hopkins literally led the league in average air yards (145 per game) during that stretch. He had the 18th-highest yards per route run (2.22) at his position. With Calvin Ridley entering the fray, Hopkins’ targets might be under a little pressure, though I’m more worried about age and injuries catching up to him. New OC Brian Callahan comes from the Zac Taylor coaching tree and Taylor is one of the most pass-happy play-callers in the league. So the Titans’ passing attack should have more volume, offsetting any loss of targets for Hopkins with Ridley in the fold.

Reception Perception’s Matt Harmon compared Odunze to Davante Adams, calling him "a complete player who has no weaknesses in his game." However, targets are going to be at a premium until either D.J. Moore or Keenan Allen move on, so he is unlikely to make the same immediate impact as Marvin Harrison Jr. will in Arizona. Odunze will be in the WR3/WR4 mix as the likely third option when Moore and Allen are healthy, though all three players are new to Caleb Williams. The Bears can afford to bring Odunze along slowly with Moore and Allen in the fold. His fantasy value would skyrocket if either player were to miss any time.

Vegas wasn’t the greatest landing spot for Bowers, who has Gardner Minshew at quarterback and is competing with Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Michael Mayer for targets. Lauded as one of the best–if not THE best–tight end prospect ever, Bowers should play ahead of Mayer and the Raiders would be wise to use him early and often. GM Tom Telesco described Bowers as a “hybrid receiver,” while HC Antonio Pierce said that Bowers was “probably the most dynamic player in college football at the tight end position in a long time.” So it sounds like the Raiders know they have a playmaker in Bowers and will scheme him touches.

Jameson Williams has had a slow start to his career, but that was to be expected since he tore his ACL in the National Championship Game during his final college season. He only played six games as a rookie, catching 1-of-9 targets for 41 yards and a touchdown while adding one carry for 40 yards. (These ridiculous numbers underline both his big-play ability and his inconsistency.) In his second season, after serving a six-game gambling suspension, he caught 24-of-42 targets for 354 yards and two scores while adding three carries for 29 yards and a touchdown. HC Dan Campbell said in February that Williams will “push to be a full-time starter” this season, and during spring practices Williams has been a “man on a mission.” On the plus side, the former No. 12 overall pick has elite speed and with Josh Reynolds moving on, there are snaps and targets up for grabs in a great offense. On the flip side, he’ll at best be the third option in the passing game behind Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, so it seems unlikely that he’ll be a consistent weekly contributor. He might be a “better in best ball” option. Regardless, given his talent and upside, he’s worth a pick in the double-digit rounds.

Marquise Brown enters his age-27 season on the heels of a disappointing 51-574-4, 101-target season, a far cry from the 91-1008-6 that he posted in his final season with the Ravens in 2021. Brown is a sizable upgrade over the recently-released Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Despite a second consecutive Super Bowl win, the Chiefs' passing game had a down year, so there is certainly room for the passing pie to grow, making room for Brown, Rice's ascension, rookie Xavier Worthy, and another quality year from Travis Kelce.

The Chargers lost both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, so they check in with the most vacated targets (395) this year. Justin Herbert is a quality quarterback and McConkey is not only a great athlete but he's also a great route-runner, according to Matt Harmon, who compared him to longtime Reception Perception favorite Tyler Lockett. This is a great fit and McConkey should see all the targets he can handle in his rookie season. He should be in the WR2/WR3 mix in fantasy drafts.

As a rookie, Jordan Addison finished as the fantasy WR23 thanks in large part to his 10 touchdown catches, though his yardage (911) was third among rookies behind Puka Nacua (1,486) and Rashee Rice (938). He was arrested in early July for suspicion of DUI, which could lead to a suspension. He pled guilty to misdemeanor (140 MPH) speeding charges last summer. In addition to a possible (2-4 game?) suspension, Addison is also dealing with a quarterback change, as some combination of Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy will try to replace Kirk Cousins’ 291 yards and 2.3 touchdowns per game. Addison’s production took a nosedive after Cousins was done for the year. He averaged 4.5-60-0.88 with Cousins and just 3.8-48-0.28 with Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens, and Jaren Hall. That’s a 36% drop in fantasy production.

I’ve said it before–Nick Chubb is one of the best pure runners in the league. He had two tears–one to his MCL and another to his ACL–in Week 2 of last season and needed two separate surgeries to repair them. Our injury expert, Jeff Mueller, wrote, “What likely is not being reported is that there is a high probability that there was also capsular damage and secondary stabilizer damage, similar to what both JK Dobbins and Javonte Williams dealt with.” Mueller believes that the Browns are protecting themselves (by signing D’Onta Foreman) in case the 28-year-old is “never the same.” Chubb is currently the RB35 off the board and is going six spots ahead of his backfield partner, Jerome Ford. The good news is that Chubb released a video of him squatting an enormous amount of weight. He’ll need to graduate to planting and cutting, but clearly the leg strength is back. In 2022, he finished as the fantasy RB6 after a 13-game RB10 finish the year before, so Chubb is a worthwhile gamble as an RB3 or RB4 in the ninth round due to his potential value in the back half of the season. If he’s practicing in camp, look out.

Brooks is recovering from a "clean" ACL tear (per Ian Rapoport). Once cleared, he should quickly beat out the solid-but-not-spectacular Chuba Hubbard and 2023 free agent disappointment Miles Sanders to earn the RB1 job. His upside is capped by the Carolina offense which needs to take a big step forward if it's going to support a bona fide fantasy RB1. The last six second-round running backs who started at least 11 games as rookies averaged 268 touches for 1,286 yards and 9.2 touchdowns. Brooks is an ideal RB3/RB4 that fantasy managers won’t need until the byes start to hit. He has a lot of late-season upside.

In his third season, Joshua Palmer finished as the WR67, though he missed several games and posted the 47th-highest per-game average (8.9 half-PPR points per game). He set career-highs in yards per game (58.1), yards per catch (15.3), and yards per route run (1.71, 38th out of 102 eligible receivers). When Matt Harmon charted Palmer’s rookie season and found that he posted above average success rates on five of the 10 routes on Reception Perception route tree, even if his overall numbers weren’t great. Anyway, it’s two years later and Palmer is coming off of a season where he played at a 65-988-3.4 (WR34) pace. Of his 10 games, Mike Williams played in three, and Keenan Allen played in four. Palmer averaged 74 yards in the four games he played with Allen and without Williams, and one of those games was cut short due to injury. In the three games that he played without both Allen and Williams, Palmer posted 113, 47, and 44 yards, a 68-yard average. So without Williams, Palmer played at a 73-1209-2.4 pace. Those are low-end WR2 numbers. With Allen and Williams gone, Palmer has an opportunity to step into the WR1 role. His primary competition appears to be Ladd McConkey, but who knows, maybe Quentin Johnston or D.J. Chark will have something to say about it. My money is on McConkey/Palmer as the WR1/WR2, but not necessarily in that order. Palmer could easily garner more targets than a rookie who wasn’t all that productive in college. The Chargers will very likely be much more run-heavy under HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman, so the passing pie will be smaller for Justin Herbert and his receivers. Still, if Palmer is a regular contributor seeing 6-8 targets per game, he could be a good fantasy asset, especially since he’s being drafted as a low-end WR5.

In his 10th season, and his first with the Cowboys, Brandin Cooks finished the season as the fantasy WR41 thanks in large part to eight receiving touchdowns. His 54 catches and 657 yards were both four-year lows. The good news is that Michael Gallup moved on and the team didn’t really do anything to replace him, so Cooks should be the second or third option behind CeeDee Lamb (and perhaps Jake Ferguson), catching passes from a good quarterback in an efficient offense. The bad news is that Cooks is entering his 11th season and is facing another steep drop off according to Ryan Heath’s excellent Age Curves study. He seems like a good WR4 play, but he has a questionable ceiling at this point in his career.

Caleb Williams will start immediately and enjoy a receiving corps that features D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, and D'Andre Swift. Pending good health, having Moore/Allen/Odunze as his top three options gives Williams a leg up on most rookie quarterbacks. Derrick Klassen of Reception Perception says the Patrick Mahomes comparisons are a stretch, but names Kyler Murray as a reasonable comp. Williams isn't likely to run as much as Murray, however. My rookie quarterback model estimates 13.6 yards per game when it uses Williams' final season numbers, but when his 2022 college stats are plugged in, the model returns 19.3 rush yards per game. Obviously, the more rush yards the better for his fantasy floor, but fantasy managers shouldn't expect Murray-type numbers from Williams. The quarterback position is fairly deep heading into 2024, but if Williams acclimates quickly, it wouldn't be shocking if he posted top-12 numbers.

After a very encouraging QB8 finish in his second season, Lawrence’s numbers regressed a bit in 2023, resulting in a QB14 fantasy finish (and the 19th-highest per game average). As the 17th quarterback off the board, Lawrence is an intriguing late-round option since he has already proven that he has top-10 upside. He lost Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones, but both Christian Kirk and Evan Engram are back, and they are joined by talented rookie Brian Thomas Jr. and free agent Gabe Davis. He also adds about 21 yards rushing per game, giving him a solid fantasy floor. Jaguars receivers had the seventh-most drops, so there was still some meat on the bone for Lawrence and Co.

Jared Goff finished as the fantasy QB8 last year and the key pieces are still in place. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs all return, and the up-and-coming Jameson Williams will likely replace the departed Josh Reynolds. Ben Johnson returns as offensive coordinator. I don’t love the idea of having Goff as my only quarterback since his home/away splits are so extreme. Over the past two seasons, Goff has averaged 21.3 fantasy points per game at home versus just 13.9 per game on the road. This is similar to what we saw with Drew Brees late in his career in New Orleans. As the QB12 off the board, Goff can be easily paired with another quarterback to form a potent committee with the intention of only starting Goff at home or in his very favorable road matchups.

In his second season, Shaheed increased his catches (28 to 46), his receiving yards (488 to 719), and touchdowns (2 to 5), while adding 723 yards as a returner. He posted a stellar 2.59 yards per route run as a rookie, and followed that up with a solid (if unspectacular) 1.67 yards per route run last season (40th out of 102 eligible receivers). He played roughly 58% of the snaps last season, but that number jumped to 63% in his last six non-injury games. With Michael Thomas out of the way, Shaheed could be a full-time player in 2024, and he should a big part of a more productive and inventive offense under new OC Klint Kubiak.

Pat Freiermuth missed five games, but was the TE28 on a per-game basis. He was the TE7 the year before with the 10th-highest per-game average. His targets dropped from 6.4 per game to 4.1 last year. The Steelers are going to be run-heavy under new OC Arthur Smith, but Smith did feed Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith last year to the tune of 103 catches for 1,249 yards, and six touchdowns. Barring a trade for Brandon Aiyuk, Freiermuth might serve as the de facto WR2 for the Steelers.

With the ever-effective James Conner in the fold, this is not the ideal landing spot for the second running back off the board, though the Cardinals could be planning to move on from the 29-year-old sooner rather than later. (Conner is in the final year of his contract.) Benson certainly has the talent and versatility to win the RB1 job and if he does, he'll be in the RB2 mix playing alongside Kyler Murray. He’ll be one of the top attrition RB2 picks this season.

Tyler Conklin was the TE18 last season, which wasn’t a bad finish given the Jets’ carousel of quarterbacks. With Aaron Rodgers back in the fold, the quality of Conklin’s targets should improve even if he’s likely to take a backseat to Mike Williams in terms of quantity of targets. He’s having a good camp and is “poised for a big season” per Connor Hughes.

Jonnu Smith finished as the TE19 in half-PPR formats and had the 15th-most receiving yards--a career-high 582--at his position. He's a terrific athlete and could shine in an every-down role, especially with Mike McDaniel scheming the offense. However, McDaniel only garnered 414 total yards from Durham Smythe/Julian Hill in 2023 and just 491 from Mike Gesicki/Durham Smythe the year before, so he's not exactly known as a TE-whisperer. McDaniel said in a press conference that “some people think that just ‘whatever it was, it will always be,’” indicating that Smith may have a larger role than people think. Smith will be in the mix as a fantasy TE2 and, given his athleticism, has upside if he grows into a 5-6 target role.

Through the first 11 weeks, prior to his abdomen injury, Luke Musgrave was the fantasy TE21. He returned late in the season and posted the second-most receptions (6) and the second-most receiving yards (66) in the Packers’ two playoff games. Tucker Kraft played very well in Musgrave’s absence, but Musgrave has the inside track to start this season as Kraft missed some time recovering from a pectoral injury.

Dontayvion Wicks is probably the best real-world WR4 in the league. (Bo Melton is probably the best WR5 as well.) His snaps will be somewhat limited unless there’s an injury to Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, and/or Romeo Doubs, so he’s not a player that we can start with any confidence unless one or more of those players is sidelined. But in best ball formats he’s an intriguing late-round pick since he will poke his head up from time to time with a big game. Talent-wise, he’s capable of playing at a fantasy WR2 level for a stretch if he gets the requisite snaps.

The fourth-year tight end had a great season, racking up 719 yards and six touchdowns on 73 catches, but there is reason for concern heading into 2024. The Bears added target-hog Keenan Allen and drafted Rome Odunze in the first round, and that means Kmet is likely to be the fourth option (at best) instead of the second option behind D.J. Moore. The Bears also signed Gerald Everett, who could eat into Kmet’s targets as well.

Ja’Lynn Polk has second-round draft capital and joins arguably the worst receiver room in the league, so a big role for the rookie is possible. He charted very well at Reception Perception and Matt Harmon says there is “so much to like” about Polk’s game. He’s definitely a player I’m monitoring this summer.

Kirk Cousins is coming off a torn Achilles but should be ready to go Week 1 for the Falcons. He will certainly breathe life into a suspect Atlanta passing game hamstrung by Desmond Ridder and Arthur Smith's run-heavy tendencies. The franchise hired Zac Robinson away from the Rams to run the offense. He was the pass game coordinator/quarterbacks coach for the last two years. With Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts to throw to, Cousins is set up for success and should be able to continue his low-end QB1 ways.

Michael Wilson will likely be the third option behind Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride, but there was a lot to like about his rookie season. He caught 38 passes for 565 yards and three scores, and played at a 740-yard pace. His yards per route run (1.36) were middle of the pack among the receivers in their first three seasons with at least 35 targets. If he can stay healthy, he should be able to produce 700+ yards and 4-6 touchdowns alongside Harrison and McBride.

Aaron Rodgers was the QB12 off the board last season and tore his Achilles tendon early in his first game with the Jets. The Jets added Mike Williams and rookie Malachi Corley, and the offensive line should make a quick turnaround after adding Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses and rookie Olu Fashanu. As the 19th quarterback off the board in early drafts, Rodgers is a sneaky QB2-type pick in the late rounds given his surrounding weapons (ahem–Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, anyone?) and an improved offensive line. Don’t be surprised if Rodgers posts a top-12 finish.

Shockingly, Baker Mayfield finished as the QB9 in his first season with the Bucs, throwing for 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns in his best season in the NFL. He showed a particularly nice rapport with Mike Evans, who racked up 1,255 yards and 13 touchdowns in his best season since 2018. While Evans finished WR4, Chris Godwin (82-1024-2) finished a disappointing WR33. With both Mayfield and Evans back in the fold, the Bucs' passing game appears to be in good hands heading into the 2024 season, though the loss of offensive coordinator Dave Canales (to Carolina) is worrisome.

Last season, Antonio Gibson rushed for a career-low 265 yards while gaining a career-high 389 yards as a receiver. He will probably serve as the primary backup to Rhamondre Stevenson. Still in his prime, his 1,331-yard season (in 2021) seems like a long time ago.

The Bengals let Irv Smith walk and signed Mike Gesicki to shore up the tight end room, but don’t count out Tanner Hudson. Last season, he led the team’s tight ends with 39 catches for 352 yards and a touchdown, and finished ninth among tight ends in yards per route run.

The Panthers traded for the "always open" Diontae Johnson, so Legette won't have the pressure of being the team's WR1 as a rookie. Adam Thielen, Jonathan Mingo, etc. don't offer insurmountable competition for a player with Legette's speed, production, and first-round draft capital. If Bryce Young and the offense can take a big step forward, and Legette is locked in as the team's WR2, he could make a fantasy impact in year one, though with Thielen still around, that’s no sure thing.

The Broncos traded Jerry Jeudy away, so the Broncos' receiving room is a little thin after Courtland Sutton, though they did add promising fourth-rounder Troy Franklin and seventh-rounder Devaughn Vale in the Draft. Nix has some rushing ability; my rookie quarterback model predicts 15.4 rush yards per game in his rookie season. Nix will have to beat out Zach Wilson and Jarrett Stidham to win the job, and if he does, he'll be in the QB3 mix in superflex formats.