Top 200 Value Based Rankings

CeeDee Lamb finished as the fantasy WR1 last year though he was second (to Tyreek Hill) in per-game scoring. He was the WR6 with the eighth-highest per-game average in 2022. Lamb is entering his age-25 season and should have another huge year as his environment (role, quarterback, play-caller) are all unchanged. The only concern is his contract situation but the Cowboys should be able to sort that out by training camp.

The Jets eased Breece Hall in early last season as he was recovering from a torn ACL in October of 2022. He saw just 37 total touches (9.3 per game) in the first four games. From Week 5 on, he led all running backs in total touches (262) and was second to Saquon Barkley in touches per game (20.2). In that span, Hall was the fantasy RB2, which is where I have him ranked this season. Not only is he talented and versatile, but the Jets did a major overhaul of the offensive line, adding veterans Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses, John Simpson, and drafting Olu Fashanue with the No. 11 overall pick. Aaron Rodgers’ return should also help the offense as a whole, creating more scoring opportunities for Hall. He’s a rock-solid pick in the middle of the first round in most formats.

Amon-Ra St. Brown finished as the fantasy WR3 with the fourth-highest per-game average at his position. He was the fantasy WR8 the year before with the 10th-highest per-game production. As he enters his fourth season his stock is as high as ever. His environment (i.e. quarterback, role, play-caller) are all unchanged, so I’m expecting another monster year from the “Sun God.”

Ja’Marr Chase missed several games in 2022, but finished with the fifth-highest per-game average. Last season, he was the fantasy WR10 and had the 11th-highest per-game average. Joe Burrow missed seven games, and Chase averaged 15.4 fantasy points with Burrow versus just 9.8 fantasy points without him. Over the last three seasons, Chase has averaged 16.1 fantasy points with Burrow at quarterback, which is great, but it’s not top-three WR great. His WR3 ADP is a little aggressive given his history as a producer, though there are worse ideas than betting on a 24-year-old receiver with 3,700+ yards and 29 touchdowns in three seasons.

A.J. Brown finished the 2023 season as the fantasy WR5 with the eighth-highest per-game average. He was the WR4 the year before and had the seventh-highest per-game average, so he has a recent history of midrange to high-end WR1 production. His environment is largely unchanged, though the Eagles hired Kellen Moore to run the offense. Moore’s offenses have finished in the top half of the league in passing yardage in each of his five seasons as offensive coordinator. Brown should once again post solid WR1 numbers.

The Rams drafted Blake Corum to take some of the load off of Kyren Williams, but I still think Williams is a good bet for a top-five season. He was the RB2 on a per-game basis while handling 21.7 of the team’s 28.0 backfield touches in his 12 games played. Even if his touches fall to the 18.0-19.0 range–or 64% to 68% of the team’s backfield touches–he’s still looking at 16.5-17.5 (half-PPR) fantasy points per game. That would have been good enough to remain the RB2 behind McCaffrey.

As a rookie, Jahmyr Gibbs finished as the fantasy RB9 with the seventh-highest per-game average. In the three games that David Montgomery missed, Gibbs showed overall RB1 upside, averaging 23.0 touches for 132 yards and 0.67 touchdowns, or 22.2 fantasy points per game. The issue is that Gibbs’ workload took a hit when Montgomery was active. The duo played 15 games together, including the postseason. Montgomery averaged 16.8 touches and 14.2 (half-PPR) fantasy points while Gibbs averaged 13.7 touches and 13.7 fantasy points, so Montgomery outscored Gibbs in the 15 games they played together. In the last 12 games they played together, Gibbs turned 14.2 touches into 15.3 fantasy points, while Montgomery posted 15.0 touches and 12.7 fantasy points. So down the stretch, they were basically splitting the work and Gibbs was more productive on a per-touch basis, posting midrange RB1 numbers in the process.

After Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles on his first pass attempt of the season, it was clear that Garrett Wilson would be in for a tough season. He finished as the fantasy WR30 after a WR22 finish as a rookie in 2022. Since 2010, among receivers in their first two seasons, Wilson ranked seventh in receptions and 14th in receiving yards. In his last two seasons in Green Bay, Rodgers’ receivers averaged 1.41 (half-PPR) fantasy points per target, which is 45% higher than the 0.97 fantasy points per target offered by the Jets’ quarterbacks last season. Simply applying 1.41 fantasy points per target to Wilson’s 168 targets last season would yield roughly 237 fantasy points, or about what A.J. Brown scored as last year’s fantasy WR5. Matt Harmon’s charting of WIlson’s second season at Reception Perception supports the prospect of a breakout third year. Harmon called Wilson “the CeeDee Lamb of last summer” and says the “hype is real.” I don’t think Wilson’s WR8 ADP is much of a reach at all.

With Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore gone, the Cardinals have the fifth-most vacated targets (217) and Harrison will soak up most of them. He's landing in a fantastic situation from an opportunity and quarterback standpoint and will immediately be in the fantasy WR2 mix with upside from there. Matt Harmon compared Harrison’s profile to Ja’Marr Chase coming out of college and added that Harrison “easily was one of the best prospects” he has charted for Reception Perception.

Josh Allen finished as the QB1 last year after finishing QB2 in 2022. He’s currently the first quarterback off the board, which is a bit surprising since he’s lost both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason. They have been replaced by Curtis Samuel and second-round pick Keon Coleman, so it looks like a downgrade in the receiver room. The other variable is Joe Brady as offensive coordinator. In nine games under Brady (including two playoff games), Allen averaged 233 yards and 1.56 touchdowns, with 47 yards and 1.22 touchdowns as a runner. This works out to 26.8 fantasy points per game thanks to those eye-popping rushing numbers. His averages in the first 10 weeks under Ken Dorsey: 260 yards and 1.90 touchdowns, with 25 yards and 0.70 touchdowns as a runner. That works out to 22.5 fantasy points per game. Under Brady, his rush attempts were 9.2 per game compared to 4.8 per game under Dorsey, so it’s clear that his rushing floor is pretty high heading into 2024.

Sam LaPorta finished as the fantasy TE1 as a rookie, which is an incredible accomplishment given the history of rookies at the position. It’s unusual for rookie tight ends to find immediate success, but LaPorta posted 86 catches for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns. Those were the most catches, the second-most yards (to Kyle Pitts), and the most touchdowns (tied with Rob Gronkowski) among rookie tight ends since 2003. LaPorta’s position-leading 196.3 half-PPR fantasy points were just the 19th-most by a tight end since 2010. He’s a good bet to repeat as the TE1 since he should only get better in his second season, and his excellent environment in the Detroit offense is unchanged.

Davante Adams finished the 2023 season as the fantasy WR13 but saw the second-most targets, so he wasn’t all that efficient thanks to suspect quarterback play. Enter Gardner Minshew–maybe?–who hopes to start for the Raiders after 13 starts for the Colts last season. Minshew provided 1.17 (half-PPR) fantasy points per target to his receivers last year while Raiders quarterbacks combined to offer 1.18 fantasy points per target, so it’s not a sure thing that Minshew is much of an upgrade for Adams and Co. Adams averaged 6.4 catches for 68 yards and 0.50 touchdowns (on 11.0 targets) in 10 games with Aidan O’Connell at quarterback. Those are high-end WR2-type numbers.

Josh Jacobs finished the season as the RB23, but missed a few games late in the year. He was the RB19 on a per-game basis. Jacobs was the fantasy RB3 in 2022. Jacobs could see a massive workload if he can remain healthy, though the Packers have implied that they want to get rookie MarShawn Lloyd involved.

Mike Evans is coming off a 79-1255-13 season, which was good enough for a fantasy WR4 finish. It was his best season since 2018 (86-1524-8), so clearly he and Baker Mayfield had a nice rapport in Mayfield's first season. Now entering his 11th season, his production should be falling off, but given his outstanding 2023 season, we can continue to expect WR1/WR2 numbers from Evans.

Brandon Aiyuk was highly-efficient again in 2023, turning the 29th-most targets into the 12th-most fantasy points. He was the fantasy WR15 in 2022, so he has a recent history of consistent low-end WR1/high-end WR2 type numbers. Aiyuk got the very rare “all green” chart from Matt Harmon at Reception Perception meaning that he’s one of the “truly elite” receivers (Harmon’s words) in the league. Even if his usage isn’t as high as we’d like, he enjoys good quarterback play and highly-efficient play-calling. Now that he’s signed his extension, it’s all systems go for this young star.

James Cook saw a big spike in touches in his second season (6.9 to 16.5 per game) and finished RB10 with the 17th-highest per game average. Counting two postseason games, Cook’s touches really spiked once Joe Brady took over as the offensive coordinator in Week 11. Cook averaged 14.4 touches for 84 yards and 0.20 touchdowns in the first 10 games with Ken Dorsey at offensive coordinator. In his final nine games under Brady, he averaged 20.1 touches for 100 yards and 0.44 touchdowns. That works out 14.2 fantasy points per game, which equates to low-end RB1 numbers. The Bills did use a fourth-round draft pick on Ray Davis, who rushed for 1,000+ yards in both 2022 and 2023 at Vanderbilt and Kentucky, respectively, so it’s possible that the team is looking to take some of the load off of Cook.

Nico Collins had a breakout season, posting 80-1297-8 on 109 targets, finishing as the fantasy WR17. He fared well in Matt Harmon’s charting at Reception Perception: “As long as he just sustains this level of play, Collins will be a staple in the superstar tier of receivers for years to come.” While Collins is an emerging talent, his targets are under pressure with the arrival of Stefon Diggs. The good news is that Collins was very productive when Tank Dell was active (13.5 fantasy points from Week 1 to Week 12, low-end WR1 numbers) and then exploded for 126 yards per game in five healthy games without Dell. It remains to be seen how Diggs impacts the target pecking order, but given Stroud’s built-in chemistry with Collins and Dell, he may be the best real-world WR3 in the league.

Kenneth Walker finished as the RB20 in half-PPR formats, though he had the 18th-highest per-game average. In 2022, he was the RB19, but really didn’t see lead back snaps until Week 5. From that point on, he was the fantasy RB7. In that stretch, he averaged 19.5 touches per game, but after the arrival of Zach Charbonnet, he averaged just 16.5 touches in 2023. He has RB1 upside, but Charbonnet’s presence caps his upside.

Despite missing a few games due to suspension, Alvin Kamara finished RB11 and had the sixth-highest per-game average. In 2022, he turned in an RB20 finish with the 19th-highest per-game average. He’s turning 29 years old this summer, so the production cliff is looming, but given the makeup of the Saints’ backfield, Kamara is likely to see a heavy workload again in 2024.

Jaylen Waddle is a difficult player to project in 2024. We know he’s talented–his 2022 WR7 finish and good charting over at Reception Perception underscore that–but he finished the 2023 season as the fantasy WR29 and had just the 23rd-highest per-game average. When his injury game in Week 16 is removed, his per-game average bumps up to WR21. Waddle does have midrange WR1 upside if Tyreek Hill were to miss time, but the arrival of Odell Beckham, Jonnu Smith, and Malik Washington means that Waddle’s targets are under some pressure.

DeVonta Smith was the WR18 after a WR10 finish the year before. He was the WR15 and WR21 on a per-game basis in 2022 and 2023, respectively. His environment is largely unchanged, though the Eagles hired Kellen Moore to run the offense. Moore’s offenses have finished in the top half of the league in passing yardage in each of his five seasons as offensive coordinator, so perhaps Smith sees a bump from the 7.0 targets per game he garnered last year.

D.J. Moore had an outstanding 2023 season, finishing as the fantasy WR7 after a WR19 finish the year before. Justin Fields is out, Caleb Williams is in, so Moore should be getting a quarterback upgrade. The Bears have a new OC, Shane Waldron, whose Seattle offenses finished 14th and 11th in passing yards in the last two seasons. The team also acquired target-hog Keenan Allen and drafted the talented Rome Odunze in the first round, so Moore’s target competition got a lot stiffer. Even with a quarterback and possible OC upgrade, it will be hard for Moore to overcome all the target competition to remain a fantasy WR1. His early ADP (WR18) seems reasonable, but given how well Allen played last year when healthy, it’s no sure thing that Moore leads this team in targets.

In his first season with the Lions, David Montgomery smashed his RB28 ADP by finishing as the fantasy RB14. Moreover, he missed a few games, so his per-game ranking (RB8) was even better. His ADP is RB19, so drafters obviously believe that Jahmyr Gibbs (who is going off the board as the RB5) is going to have a larger share of the backfield touches this season. A few splits to note: The duo played 15 games together, including the postseason. Montgomery averaged 16.8 touches and 14.2 (half-PPR) fantasy points while Gibbs averaged 13.7 touches and 13.7 fantasy points, so Montgomery outscored Gibbs in the 15 games they played together. In the last 12 games they played together, Gibbs turned 14.2 touches into 15.3 fantasy points, while Montgomery posted 15.0 touches and 12.7 fantasy points. So down the stretch, they were basically splitting the work and Gibbs was more productive on a per-touch basis. The 12.7 fantasy points per game that Montgomery averaged in their last 12 games together would have been the 18th-highest average at the position last season, so Montgomery’s RB19 ADP makes sense if we assume that those last 12 games are more predictive than the full 15-game sample. To sum up, Montgomery should have a 15-touch role and offer solid fantasy RB2 numbers. He would have midrange to high-end RB1 upside if Gibbs were to miss time.

From a targets standpoint, Nabers should see all that he can handle, and he has the talent to produce. The problem is the quarterback situation, which currently features Daniel Jones, who is recovering from an ACL tear, and Drew Lock, who is on his third team in four seasons. As the top target in a suspect passing attack, Nabers will be in the WR3/WR4 mix this summer.

Trey McBride saw a bump in playing time in Week 8 and was the fantasy TE4 the rest of the way. He had the fourth-highest yards per route run (2.08) among tight ends in that span, and garnered the third-most targets (8.5 per game). The third-year tight end should serve as the No. 2 option behind rookie Marvin Harrison Jr., but Harrison’s arrival might put a dent in McBride’s heavy late-season usage.

In his ninth season, Amari Cooper set career-highs in receiving yards per game (83.3) and yards per reception (17.4) en route to a WR14 finish last year. He was the WR9 in 2022. Cooper is entering his 10th season, which is when receivers’ production tends to fall off of a cliff, per Ryan Heath’s excellent Age Curves study. Cooper’s splits with and without Deshaun Watson were similar, so that’s not much of a concern. Cooper’s career-highs last season are reason to be optimistic that his production won’t fall off too much in 2024. His WR27 ADP seems like a solid value given the age discount.

Stefon Diggs finished as the fantasy WR15 last season but saw the eighth-most targets, and that sort of usage is unlikely to follow him to Houston, where he joins a talented receiving corps which features Nico Collins and Tank Dell. This receiver room may be difficult to project on a weekly basis if everyone’s healthy. Now 30 years old, Diggs should continue to have productive football ahead of him, but as he enters his 10th season, he’s approaching a pretty significant production cliff according to Ryan Heath’s excellent Age Curves study. His WR22 ADP seems a bit optimistic for a soon-to-be 31-year-old receiver who is changing teams.

As a rookie, C.J. Stroud finished as the fantasy QB12, though he missed a couple of games. It was the ninth-best fantasy performance by a rookie quarterback since 2000. Stroud’s 4,108 yards were the third-highest by a rookie in that span and his 23 touchdowns tie for fifth-highest. Stroud is primed for another starter-caliber season, though they lost a good pass-blocker in tackle George Fant, who was replaced by second-round draft pick Blake Fisher. Stefon Diggs joins breakout stars Nico Collins and Tank Dell in the receiver room, so Stroud has plenty of weapons to throw to. He may be able to crack the top five.

Last season, George Kittle averaged 5.1 targets per game in 14 games with Deebo Samuel, and saw 18 targets in the two games Samuel missed. In the six games that Samuel has missed over the last two seasons, Kittle has averaged 5.2 receptions for 84 yards and 1.0 touchdown. He’s basically THE fantasy TE1 when Samuel is out and just another TE1 when Samuel is active. Keep in mind that Kittle is entering his age-31 season, though his advanced metrics are still elite.

Raheem Mostert was basically a “league-winner” last season as he absolutely crushed his RB41 ADP by finishing as the fantasy RB3. After gaining 1,093 total yards and scoring five total touchdowns for the Dolphins in 2022, Mostert posted 1,187 total yards and scored an eye-popping 21 touchdowns last year. So why is he the RB26 off the board in early drafts? For one, he has the extremely talented De’Von Achane nipping at his heels. The other factor is that he’s no spring chicken at 32 years old, and the production drop off comes for everyone. Still, RB26 seems too low for a player who just finished in the top five and is in basically the same situation. In Mostert’s last four games with Achane, he averaged 15.8 touches for 61 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game.

The rookie only played two full games and was knocked out of two other games before halftime, but he still showed flashes of fantasy superstardom accounting for seven touchdowns in roughly 2.6 games worth of action. He posted the highest fantasy point per attempt (passing + rushing) in the league. The Colts re-signed Michael Pittman and drafted another weapon, Adonai Mitchell, and should have a healthy Jonathan Taylor in tow. Only time will tell if Richardson is more of an injury risk than other quarterbacks, but studies have shown that mobile quarterbacks aren’t injured at a higher rate than “pocket” quarterbacks.

In 16 games for the Eagles, D'Andre Swift totaled 1,263 total yards and six touchdowns on 268 touches. He began the year behind Kenneth Gainwell, but took over the starting job quickly once Gainwell missed time. He has a career 4.6 yards per carry and has excellent receiving chops which the Eagles mostly failed to utilize last season. Swift was the RB17 last season and the RB24 the year before, though he was the RB21 on a per-game basis in his last season with the Lions. Khalil Herbert (4.6 YPC) and Roschon Johnson (4.3 YPC) both ran well last year, though Herbert only played 12 games. The Bears running backs combined for 72 total catches, so Swift does have 40- or 50-catch upside once again. Given the size of the contract, Swift will certainly get the first crack at the Bears' RB1 job in 2024. Fantasy-wise, he'll be in the RB2 mix come draft season.

As a rookie, Zay Flowers was the fantasy WR27 but was the WR34 on a per-game basis. The Ravens let Odell Beckham walk, and didn’t really replace him, so the team is likely to have Flowers, Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor as its top three receivers. Flowers should see plenty of targets and become a more consistent weapon in his second season.

Calvin Ridley finished the 2023 season WR24 after being drafted WR14, so his first (and only) year with the Jaguars was a bit of a disappointment. Now he joins the Titans to play alongside DeAndre Hopkins with Will Levis at quarterback. The Titans have traditionally been pretty run-heavy, but new head coach Brian Callahan served as the offensive coordinator for the Bengals for the last five seasons. He didn't call the plays, but the Bengals were pretty pass-heavy in that span. (Cincinnati was second in pass rate over expectation in each of the last two seasons.) If Callahan brings those pass-heavy tendencies to the Titans, and Levis is up to the task, then Ridley and Hopkins could have productive fantasy seasons.

Evan Engram led all tight ends in targets (143), catching 114 passes for 963 yards and four scores. Calvin Ridley was replaced by rookie Brian Thomas and Gabe Davis, so Engram’s role should be relatively unchanged. In other words, he might lead his position in targets again. He turns 30 in September, so a drop in production is possible, but far from certain.

In his seventh season, Chris Godwin turned 130 targets into 83 catches, 1,024 yards, and two touchdowns. The Bucs played him mostly outside (~38% slot) after he ran 70%+ of his routes out of the slot in both 2021 (WR12) and 2022 (WR20). They are reportedly moving him back to the slot this season, which is good news. Last year, Godwin averaged 1.71 fantasy points per slot target versus just 1.03 fantasy points per non-slot target, so moving back to the slot should boost his production at this point in his career. He may also benefit from positive touchdown regression as he only caught two touchdowns with an expectation of 5.3 touchdowns. Keep in mind that those top-20 fantasy finishes came with Tom Brady at quarterback, and the team’s passing pie as a whole is much smaller with Baker Mayfield under center. With Mayfield, Godwin looks like more of a WR3 than the fantasy WR2 he was with Brady.

Last season, Dak Prescott finished as the fantasy QB4 and had the fifth-highest per-game average. He missed some time in 2022, but had the 13th-highest per-game average, and he was the QB9 in 2021. So he has a long history of starter-level numbers. The Cowboys return most of Prescott’s weapons, losing Tony Pollard and Michael Gallup to free agency. The key receivers–breakout star CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, and Jake Ferguson–are all back. Dallas lost some talent along the offensive line, but they used premium draft capital to shore up the unit. Prescott should have another solid season.

The conventional wisdom was that Tyjae Spears would take over the starting job with Derrick Henry moving on, but the Titans moved quickly in free agency to lock up Tony Pollard, who had a disappointing fantasy season in 2023. He was drafted RB6 but finished RB18 coming off a broken leg in January of 2023. There is reason to believe that Pollard’s explosiveness could return in his second full season after the injury. Entering the 2023 season, he was one of the most efficient and exciting backs in the game, but the fantasy community soured on him quickly as he failed to provide first-round production. He averaged 5.3 YPC on 323 combined carries in 2021 and 2022, leading the league in yards after contact per attempt in 2022. Spears isn’t going anywhere, so the two backs will likely form a 1-2 punch for the Titans in 2024.

Jake Ferguson was one of my favorite late-round tight ends last year and he didn’t disappoint, finishing TE8 versus a TE23 positional ADP. Our own Matt Okada found that Ferguson should have scored an additional 3.6 touchdowns to meet his expected touchdown opportunity. We saw some regression immediately after the season as he caught three touchdowns in the Cowboys’ playoff loss to the Packers. Had he scored an additional 3.8 touchdowns he would have finished TE6 instead of TE8. (He led his position with 12 targets inside the 10-yard line.) As the TE9 off the board, Ferguson is probably the last TE1-type that I’d feel comfortable rolling with as my only tight end.

Austin Ekeler had 164 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 even though he left early with a high-ankle sprain. He returned in Week 6 and had a run of big games from Week 8 to Week 10, gaining 308 total yards and scoring four touchdowns in that stretch. In his last eight games, he only cleared 75 total yards twice, finishing as the RB29 for the year and the RB23 on a per-game basis. As he enters his age-29 season, he's unlikely to wrest the early-down role from Brian Robinson, but he's likely to operate as the primary pass-catcher out of the Washington backfield.

Zack Moss filled in admirably for an injured Jonathan Taylor. In the eight games where Moss played at least half the snaps, he averaged 20.9 touches for 94 yards (4.12 yards per carry), and 0.63 touchdowns. The resulting 14.7 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) would have been the eighth-highest last year (ahead of David Montgomery and just behind Jahmyr Gibbs). Moss will likely cede some touches to Chase Brown, who had 50+ total yards in four of his last six games.

Brian Thomas Jr. joins Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and Gabe Davis to provide a potent receiving corps for Trevor Lawrence. Talent-wise, Thomas could be a top-two option for Jacksonville, but it will be a challenge to unseat Engram (8.4 targets per game) or Kirk (7.1) in terms of targets. However, Calvin Ridley vacated 8.0 targets per game, and Zay Jones (7.1) was also cut, so there are snaps and targets available for both Thomas and Davis. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception said that Thomas has "earned his standing as the first name mentioned" after the top-three receivers in the 2024 draft class, so he’s a breakout candidate in his first season.

We know Christian Watson has talent. In the 14 games over the last two seasons when he’s been healthy enough to play 70%+ of the snaps, he has averaged 3.6 catches for 61 yards and 0.79 touchdowns on 6.3 targets per game. Throw in some carries, and he’s averaged 13.6 (half-PPR) fantasy points per game when getting that many snaps. That’s what Nico Collins averaged as last year’s WR13 on a per-game basis. Watson has missed time in each of his first two seasons with hamstring injuries, but an offseason visit to a specialist in Madison revealed that there was an imbalance in the strength of his hamstrings which was causing the injuries. He has worked to cut the asymmetry in half, and continues to work to get the two muscles even closer in strength. If this is able to keep his legs healthy, it could be a boon for fantasy managers who are drafting him as the WR41 off the board. The Packers’ receiving group as a whole is going to be very difficult to project as there is a lot of talent WR1-WR5. Dontayvion Wicks and Bo Melton are arguably the best WR4 and WR5 in the league. Still, when Watson is healthy, the Packers will play him 70%-90% without much hesitation because he can completely take the top off the defense. When we apply his reception, receiving yard and touchdown shares from those 14 games where he played 70%+ of the snaps to the Packers’ expected passing numbers this season, then Watson projects to 947 yards and 11.6 touchdowns, which would make him the fantasy WR8. There’s obviously upside given Watson’s WR4-type ADP, but there are multiple ways (injury, WR-committee) for Watson to miss that expectation as well. I think he’s worth the risk.

In his sixth season, Courtland Sutton finished as the WR32, driven by a career-high 10 receiving touchdowns. (He had never caught more than six touchdowns in a season.) Jerry Jeudy was traded to the Browns, so that leaves Sutton as the no-brainer top option for rookie Bo Nix, who seems to be winning the starting job. As it stands, Sutton looks like the best receiving option in what’s shaping up to be a below average passing attack, but someone has to catch the ball and Sutton is a proven producer.

The Chargers lost both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, so they check in with the most vacated targets (395) this year. Justin Herbert is a quality quarterback and McConkey is not only a great athlete but he's also a great route-runner, according to Matt Harmon, who compared him to longtime Reception Perception favorite Tyler Lockett. This is a great fit and McConkey should see all the targets he can handle in his rookie season. He should be in the WR2/WR3 mix in fantasy drafts.

Brock Purdy was one of the best draft day values last season, finishing QB6 versus a depressed ADP of QB19 thanks in large part to a torn UCL in his elbow suffered in the 2022 postseason. That season, he was the fantasy QB8 down the stretch after taking over as the 49ers’ starter in Week 13, so his QB11 positional ADP is justified. Assuming Brandon Aiyuk reports, Purdy has one of the best receiving corps in the league with Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and rookie Ricky Pearsall.

Vegas wasn’t the greatest landing spot for Bowers, who has Gardner Minshew at quarterback and is competing with Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Michael Mayer for targets. Lauded as one of the best–if not THE best–tight end prospect ever, Bowers should play ahead of Mayer and the Raiders would be wise to use him early and often. GM Tom Telesco described Bowers as a “hybrid receiver,” while HC Antonio Pierce said that Bowers was “probably the most dynamic player in college football at the tight end position in a long time.” So it sounds like the Raiders know they have a playmaker in Bowers and will scheme him touches.

Dallas Goedert missed three games but still finished TE14. He was tied with Trey McBride for the 11th-highest per game average. In 2022, he had the fifth-highest per game average, but missed five games. Last season, he averaged 6.2 targets per game, which was the seventh-most among tight ends. He’s a key cog in the Philadelphia passing attack, though he’s typically the third option behind A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. At 29 years old, I’m expecting another year of solid production, but those missed games are piling up.

Jameson Williams has had a slow start to his career, but that was to be expected since he tore his ACL in the National Championship Game during his final college season. He only played six games as a rookie, catching 1-of-9 targets for 41 yards and a touchdown while adding one carry for 40 yards. (These ridiculous numbers underline both his big-play ability and his inconsistency.) In his second season, after serving a six-game gambling suspension, he caught 24-of-42 targets for 354 yards and two scores while adding three carries for 29 yards and a touchdown. HC Dan Campbell said in February that Williams will “push to be a full-time starter” this season, and during spring practices Williams has been a “man on a mission.” On the plus side, the former No. 12 overall pick has elite speed and with Josh Reynolds moving on, there are snaps and targets up for grabs in a great offense. On the flip side, he’ll at best be the third option in the passing game behind Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, so it seems unlikely that he’ll be a consistent weekly contributor. He might be a “better in best ball” option. Regardless, given his talent and upside, he’s worth a pick in the double-digit rounds.

Chase Brown has been trending up this offseason and is a good back to target in the double-digit rounds. The Bengals let Joe Mixon walk but signed Zack Moss to a two-year deal worth $8 million. My initial thought was that Moss would simply step into Mixon’s workload since he handled a boatload of touches in Indianapolis while Jonathan Taylor was out and the Bengals gave him a sizable contract. But there has been a steady drumbeat of positive news for Brown and there is even some discussion about Brown being the RB1a to Moss as the RB1b. While he was electric as a receiver, Brown stunk as a runner last season–his PFF rush grade was 113th out of 129 backs last season, while Moss was a solid 53rd. (Brown did rush for 1,643 yards in his final season at Illinois.) Moss is also listed as the team’s RB1 on their depth chart, though Brown has been seeing more reps with the starters in recent practices.

Curtis Samuel is a long-time favorite of Reception Perception’s Matt Harmon, and whenever one of his favorites sees a role or quarterback change, I take notice. Harmon charted Samuel in the 2018-2020 seasons and he finished with a success rate of 75%+ versus man coverage–88th percentile, which is very good–in all three seasons. His 2023 charting revealed a 75.4% success rate versus man, and he posted a career-high 80.0% success rate versus zone. In his last four seasons with 15+ games played, Samuel has crested 613 receiving yards in all four years, and has added an average of 139 yards per year as a runner. The Bills get a versatile weapon to utilize alongside Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, and Dalton Kincaid. Harmon agrees, “...everything about his profile shows that he will make a significant impact for a team that needs him.” Moreover, Samuel is being reunited with OC Joe Brady who squeezed a WR25 finish out of him in 2020 (with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback). Samuel had 118 touches (41 carries) for 1,051 yards and five touchdowns that year. He will be one of my primary late-round targets this season.

Corum rushed for 2,708 yards in his final two seasons at Michigan and posted pretty good numbers at the Combine. However, Kyren Williams owned the third-highest rushing grade last season, so the rookie may have a tough time getting touches as long as Williams remains healthy. He'll be a premier attrition RB2 in 2024 fantasy drafts.

Keon Coleman didn’t chart particularly well at Reception Perception, but the Bills used valuable draft capital to nab him with the first pick in the second round and he’s joining a team that desperately needs playmakers at receiver. It’s worth noting that as a sophomore at Michigan State, he outproduced Jayden Reed in Reed’s senior season.

In his third season, Joshua Palmer finished as the WR67, though he missed several games and posted the 47th-highest per-game average (8.9 half-PPR points per game). He set career-highs in yards per game (58.1), yards per catch (15.3), and yards per route run (1.71, 38th out of 102 eligible receivers). When Matt Harmon charted Palmer’s rookie season and found that he posted above average success rates on five of the 10 routes on Reception Perception route tree, even if his overall numbers weren’t great. Anyway, it’s two years later and Palmer is coming off of a season where he played at a 65-988-3.4 (WR34) pace. Of his 10 games, Mike Williams played in three, and Keenan Allen played in four. Palmer averaged 74 yards in the four games he played with Allen and without Williams, and one of those games was cut short due to injury. In the three games that he played without both Allen and Williams, Palmer posted 113, 47, and 44 yards, a 68-yard average. So without Williams, Palmer played at a 73-1209-2.4 pace. Those are low-end WR2 numbers. With Allen and Williams gone, Palmer has an opportunity to step into the WR1 role. His primary competition appears to be Ladd McConkey, but who knows, maybe Quentin Johnston or D.J. Chark will have something to say about it. My money is on McConkey/Palmer as the WR1/WR2, but not necessarily in that order. Palmer could easily garner more targets than a rookie who wasn’t all that productive in college. The Chargers will very likely be much more run-heavy under HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman, so the passing pie will be smaller for Justin Herbert and his receivers. Still, if Palmer is a regular contributor seeing 6-8 targets per game, he could be a good fantasy asset, especially since he’s being drafted as a low-end WR5.

Jared Goff finished as the fantasy QB8 last year and the key pieces are still in place. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs all return, and the up-and-coming Jameson Williams will likely replace the departed Josh Reynolds. Ben Johnson returns as offensive coordinator. I don’t love the idea of having Goff as my only quarterback since his home/away splits are so extreme. Over the past two seasons, Goff has averaged 21.3 fantasy points per game at home versus just 13.9 per game on the road. This is similar to what we saw with Drew Brees late in his career in New Orleans. As the QB12 off the board, Goff can be easily paired with another quarterback to form a potent committee with the intention of only starting Goff at home or in his very favorable road matchups.

After a very encouraging QB8 finish in his second season, Lawrence’s numbers regressed a bit in 2023, resulting in a QB14 fantasy finish (and the 19th-highest per game average). As the 17th quarterback off the board, Lawrence is an intriguing late-round option since he has already proven that he has top-10 upside. He lost Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones, but both Christian Kirk and Evan Engram are back, and they are joined by talented rookie Brian Thomas Jr. and free agent Gabe Davis. He also adds about 21 yards rushing per game, giving him a solid fantasy floor. Jaguars receivers had the seventh-most drops, so there was still some meat on the bone for Lawrence and Co.

Dalton Schultz proved to be a good value at the always dicey tight end position in 2023. He was drafted as the TE15 but turned in TE10 numbers despite missing a couple of games. C.J. Stroud was obviously much better than expected, which helped, but Schultz did not appear to be a top-two (or even top-three?) option when Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Noah Brown were all healthy. Despite finishing as a top-10 tight end, he saw four or fewer targets in six of his 15 games played. The Texans saw enough to value Schultz at $36 million over three years. He’s a baseline option at the position heading into 2024.

With the ever-effective James Conner in the fold, this is not the ideal landing spot for the second running back off the board, though the Cardinals could be planning to move on from the 29-year-old sooner rather than later. (Conner is in the final year of his contract.) Benson certainly has the talent and versatility to win the RB1 job and if he does, he'll be in the RB2 mix playing alongside Kyler Murray. He’ll be one of the top attrition RB2 picks this season.

The former first-round pick has totaled a serviceable 121 catches for 1,730 yards and eight touchdowns in 31 games played over the last two seasons, finishing WR54 last season and a career-high WR26 the year before. He'll get a fresh start in Cleveland with Deshaun Watson (and possibly Joe Flacco) at quarterback, but will certainly be behind Amari Cooper in the team's pecking order at receiver. The Browns also have a stud tight end, David Njoku, so Jeudy should be third in expected targets. Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman will also be in the mix.

Kirk Cousins is coming off a torn Achilles but should be ready to go Week 1 for the Falcons. He will certainly breathe life into a suspect Atlanta passing game hamstrung by Desmond Ridder and Arthur Smith's run-heavy tendencies. The franchise hired Zac Robinson away from the Rams to run the offense. He was the pass game coordinator/quarterbacks coach for the last two years. With Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts to throw to, Cousins is set up for success and should be able to continue his low-end QB1 ways.

Through the first 11 weeks, prior to his abdomen injury, Luke Musgrave was the fantasy TE21. He returned late in the season and posted the second-most receptions (6) and the second-most receiving yards (66) in the Packers’ two playoff games. Tucker Kraft played very well in Musgrave’s absence, but Musgrave has the inside track to start this season as Kraft missed some time recovering from a pectoral injury.

Jonnu Smith finished as the TE19 in half-PPR formats and had the 15th-most receiving yards--a career-high 582--at his position. He's a terrific athlete and could shine in an every-down role, especially with Mike McDaniel scheming the offense. However, McDaniel only garnered 414 total yards from Durham Smythe/Julian Hill in 2023 and just 491 from Mike Gesicki/Durham Smythe the year before, so he's not exactly known as a TE-whisperer. McDaniel said in a press conference that “some people think that just ‘whatever it was, it will always be,’” indicating that Smith may have a larger role than people think. Smith will be in the mix as a fantasy TE2 and, given his athleticism, has upside if he grows into a 5-6 target role.

Ja’Lynn Polk has second-round draft capital and joins arguably the worst receiver room in the league, so a big role for the rookie is possible. He charted very well at Reception Perception and Matt Harmon says there is “so much to like” about Polk’s game. He’s definitely a player I’m monitoring this summer.

Dontayvion Wicks is probably the best real-world WR4 in the league. (Bo Melton is probably the best WR5 as well.) His snaps will be somewhat limited unless there’s an injury to Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, and/or Romeo Doubs, so he’s not a player that we can start with any confidence unless one or more of those players is sidelined. But in best ball formats he’s an intriguing late-round pick since he will poke his head up from time to time with a big game. Talent-wise, he’s capable of playing at a fantasy WR2 level for a stretch if he gets the requisite snaps.

Reception Perception’s Matt Harmon was surprised by Mitchell's tape, and compared him to George Pickens with a possible DeAndre Hopkins ceiling. Mitchell will compete with Josh Downs and Alec Pierce for targets opposite Michael Pittman. (Downs was great last year, per Harmon, by the way.) The Colts are unlikely to be too pass-heavy, so it's unclear whether they'll be able to support two or three fantasy receivers. Given Mitchell's speed, he could thrive as a deep-ball threat for Anthony Richardson, who throws a nice long ball. I'm not optimistic that Mitchell is going to turn into a consistent fantasy performer as long as Pittman remains healthy.

Of all the tight ends, Taysom Hill’s fantasy value depends most on the scoring format. In standard scoring, he was the TE7 last year. In half-PPR and full-PPR, he was the TE10 and TE15, respectively, so in full PPR formats, he’s more of a TE2-type, but he’s quite startable in standard and half-PPR formats. With a new offensive coordinator (Klint Kubiak) in town, Hill’s role is very much up in the air, but HC Dennis Allen said that it would be “very similar to what we’ve seen in the past.” Hill said that he had a “positive” conversation with Kubiak about his new role, so he seems like he’ll be content with his usage. ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported in early August that the Saints are “leaning into the Taysom Hill experience.” Of course, Hill is not even TE-eligible in some leagues, but that’s where we rank/project him since that’s the only position where he’s startable.

In the first four weeks of the 2023 season, Hunter Henry cleared 50 yards three times and scored two touchdowns, though he didn’t catch another touchdown until Week 9 and didn’t clear 50 yards again until Week 15. He finished as the TE15, catching 42 passes for 419 yards and six scores in 14 games. Re-signing with the Patriots probably wasn’t a best-case scenario for his fantasy value, though he should remain the team’s starter and could work his way into TE2 territory if the Patriots are able to get better quarterback play out of Drake Maye and/or Jacoby Brissett.

The fourth-year tight end had a great season, racking up 719 yards and six touchdowns on 73 catches, but there is reason for concern heading into 2024. The Bears added target-hog Keenan Allen and drafted Rome Odunze in the first round, and that means Kmet is likely to be the fourth option (at best) instead of the second option behind D.J. Moore. The Bears also signed Gerald Everett, who could eat into Kmet’s targets as well.

Michael Wilson will likely be the third option behind Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride, but there was a lot to like about his rookie season. He caught 38 passes for 565 yards and three scores, and played at a 740-yard pace. His yards per route run (1.36) were middle of the pack among the receivers in their first three seasons with at least 35 targets. If he can stay healthy, he should be able to produce 700+ yards and 4-6 touchdowns alongside Harrison and McBride.

Mike Gesicki is a great athlete and has two 700+ yard seasons (and another 500+ yard season) on his resume. He follows in C.J. Uzomah (49-493-5) and Hayden Hurst’s (52-414-2) footsteps, signing a one-year deal hoping to get his career back on track after a couple of disappointing seasons. His 6’6” frame should make him a good red zone target for Joe Burrow.

With Kirk Cousins leaving for Atlanta, the Vikings have a hole at quarterback and Sam Darnold is not a bad stopgap option as the franchise waits for J.J. McCarthy to be ready. In six starts for the Panthers in 2022, Darnold averaged a healthy 8.2 yards per attempt and threw seven touchdowns against three picks. He also averaged 18 yards rushing. In his lone 2023 start for the 49ers, he completed 16 of 26 passes for 189 yards and a touchdown and added 19 yards and a touchdown as a runner. If he enters the season as the starter, which seems likely, he'll have good upside as a QB3-type who has great weapons and can run.