Analyzing a 12-Team Salary Cap Mock Draft (August)
The majority of fantasy drafts will take place over the next week and a half so it’s time to take a final look at what’s happening in salary cap draft rooms. We met at the end of June and again at the end of July to take the temperature of the fantasy community and hopefully see some trends that can help us in our upcoming drafts. I think that endeavor has been successful so far, but let’s get our last read on things with an August mock salary cap draft.
Just as in previous mocks, we got 11 new drafters in the room and that gives us 33 unique salary cap styles and perspectives over the three months of this series. As noted last month, just because something happened in one of these mocks it doesn’t mean we can make a generalized observation of what will happen in your room, but there are certainly some conclusions we can draw from what has transpired.
More Salary Cap Content: 7 Discounted Players in Salary Cap Drafts | Salary Cap Nomination Strategy | How to Approach 2023 Salary Cap Drafts | Studs & Scrubs | Striking at Value in Salary Cap Drafts |
First, here's a reminder of the league setup. The format was meant to resemble the most typical fantasy leagues out there despite the growing popularity of other ways to play the game.
We went with:
- 1 QB/2 RB/3 WR/1 TE/1 K/1 DEF/1 FLX
- 8 Bench Spots
- PPR
- $200 Salary Cap
Overall Observations
It looks as though June’s early start of tight, controlled spending was the outlier. July spending was aggressive right out of the gate, and August proceeded similarly. The first player nominated was Travis Kelce and he went for a robust $42, and then Tyreek Hill was $54 on the second nomination. While the price on Kelce is only a bit high, the price for Hill was more than I’ve seen in just about any salary cap draft this summer. Things proceeded accordingly. Ja'Marr Chase ($58), Christian McCaffrey ($52), Derrick Henry ($33), and Austin Ekeler ($47) all went at or above their expected price.
The room seemed to then take a breath to let Cooper Kupp ($43) and Patrick Mahomes ($25) go below market value before jumping back in on the draft’s highest-dollar player when Justin Jefferson went for $65. Therein lies one of the simplest lessons you all have heard about before, the last player in a tier (or the last elite player) will always see irrational price inflation. Since Chase, Hill, and Kupp were already off the board Jefferson went for an exorbitant amount.
Quarterback Value?
Although Lamar Jackson went for $23, which is above where he should go, the rest of the quarterback situation gave more fuel to the idea that maybe some drafters won’t make you pay over $30 for a top quarterback. June saw some higher prices on quarterbacks and I was seeing the same thing in other salary cap rooms as well. Yet, when the dust settled in July and August the prices weren’t wildly out of line with prior years. Mahomes went for $25 as mentioned above, and then Josh Allen ($26) and Jalen Hurts ($27) both went for reasonable prices several bucks under that $30 mark I had been seeing them hit quite often.
I think the conclusion from our mocks, and our resultant approach, doesn’t need to be overly complicated. Having an elite quarterback is an advantage that you should seek out if the room is going to let you. Perhaps your draft room will want to spend for the top guys and if they do it’s easy to pivot to a cheaper option. But if the price is going to stay in the mid-$20 range then you ought to consider building your pre-draft plan to include that approach.
What Is Happening at Wide Receiver?
Prices in this draft were a bit top-heavy, which isn’t a surprising development. But this is confirmation of a central tenet of my salary cap draft philosophy in that I don’t like chasing the top couple of guys at most positions. The price cliff between WR3 (Hill - $54) and the other top wide receivers was fairly significant. Kupp, as noted, went for $43, and guys like Stefon Diggs ($46), A.J. Brown ($44), and Davante Adams ($41) all were measurably cheaper than paying for one of the top guys. Even CeeDee Lamb, who went for $49 and was a product of a scarce tier, was $5 less than Hill.
Further, the price drops to the middle of WR2 and WR3 territory showed a big gulf as well. You could score guys like Jaylen Waddle ($32), Tee Higgins ($27), and Amari Cooper ($25) for yet another big discount from the tier ahead.
There are two things at work on the prices here. The first is that the top few guys were too expensive, and a couple of guys saw unreasonable price inflation due to when they were nominated, so the room eventually didn’t have the money to pay up at the next couple of tiers. Make note of that if you see this developing in your salary cap draft. This is an eminently possible scenario that happens in a lot of drafts.
The other thing reflected in these prices is that there are so many similar guys in a big glut of pass-catchers that drafters can afford to wait on the guys that go too cheaply and draft several of them. Guys like Mike Williams ($16), Jerry Jeudy ($17), and D.J. Moore ($13) are examples of this phenomenon.
The takeaway for your drafts is again, not overly complicated. If you want to approximate a WR-WR start from a typical serpentine draft you’ll have to pay up more than you would have in past years. It will cost you $85-$95 to do so. In smaller leagues that’s a fine start. But it looks like the best approach this year is to make sure and get one reliable alpha wide receiver (think Lamb, Diggs, or Adams) and then you can wait for the price cliff and finish your WR2 through WR4 slots with a dynamite combination like Higgins-Cooper-Jeudy that won’t break the bank.
Key Price Changes
As we discussed in July, it’s fun to see different mock salary cap drafts because the results are always going to be different even if you used the same drafters to do back-to-back drafts! But, it’s still valuable to follow some players through all three drafts and see what we can deduce from how much they ended up costing each month. Here are the guys we followed since June:
| Player | June Price | July Price | August Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 33 | 26 | 26 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 10 | 20 | 13 |
| Deshaun Watson | 7 | 4 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 48 | 64 | 52 |
| Nick Chubb | 47 | 60 | 42 |
| Najee Harris | 24 | 29 | 19 |
| Tony Pollard | 26 | 36 | 41 |
| Justin Jefferson | 56 | 58 | 65 |
| Garrett Wilson | 33 | 41 | 39 |
| Amari Cooper | 26 | 19 | 25 |
| Terry McLaurin | 24 | 20 | 20 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 21 | 17 | 14 |
| Deebo Samuel | 20 | 14 | 26 |
| Travis Kelce | 40 | 47 | 42 |
| Mark Andrews | 23 | 28 | 32 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 9 | 3 | 6 |
Trevor Lawrence continues to be an interesting case. He went for $13 or less in two of three months, and that seems to be somewhat close to the opinion of the fantasy community at large. The $20 price from July is an outlier and I think we can safely ignore that. Lawrence should be one of your favorite quarterback targets if he is going to go for less than $15.
Deebo Samuel went for a whopping $26 in August after dropping to $14 in July. The August price is way too high, but I also think the $14 July price is ambitious. The problem with Samuel is that unless you can grab him as your third wide receiver as I mentioned last month, I don’t think there’s any value there. If people are out on him in your room and he’s less than $20 then you should be in, but evidence here suggests he likely isn’t going to be cheap enough to realize much value in most salary cap rooms. I’m afraid I’m going to be passing on Samuel for the most part.
Tony Pollard continues to gain steam. Not every price tracked here is going to be predictive, but in Pollard's case, it sure seems like the runaway optimism on him is in lockstep with his price evolution. His price has risen steadily each month starting at $26 back in June and ending up at $41 in August. Getting Pollard is going to be expensive, but if you get him below ~$38 that is value you should consider taking.
Nick Chubb transformed into a bargain in August, commanding only $42 after going for $47 and $60 in the first two drafts. The drafter in August got a great deal as that isn’t likely in most leagues, but if he is going to be around $45 or less he represents a good target for you.
Garrett Wilson ($39) and Amari Cooper ($25) went for right about what they should in August. Those numbers are where most salary cap drafters see their value so the only way you’re going to see a price below $35 for Wilson, or $25 for Cooper, is with a well-timed nomination. I still think Cooper is being undervalued for his potential, but on both guys, you’re going to want to get them nominated as quickly as you can when their tiers start to get hit with nominations. Their prices seem predictable otherwise.
People still don’t care about Deshaun Watson ($1) or Najee Harris ($19). I’m not interested in being all-in on either guy, but if you spend a lot of money at wide receiver like I do then Watson and Harris both make sense as impact players that can be had cheaply.
It’s hard to capture the full results by cherry-picking a few players, but if you want to examine the prices more fully for the guys you’re wondering about we’ve included the full rosters below for your perusal.
Final Thoughts
It’s dangerous to make too many sweeping generalizations from three mock drafts. The infinite number of variables means we have to be a bit cautious about that. Yet, when things happen that I’ve seen before in countless salary cap draft rooms it confirms that we should be on the lookout for certain opportunities that will arise if we are paying attention.
Early Prices Set the Tone
So many things flow from what happens in the first 12-18 nominations. In all three of our mocks, there was a ripple effect from either early aggressiveness or early caution. In June the early caution meant that prices were sustained at higher levels later in the draft. But in July and August, we saw early uncontrolled spending and that led to bargains later, but also to significant price gaps at key spots deep into the draft. Taking advantage of both is how you excel at this format and the only way to do that is to carefully watch spending when the draft starts so you know which way the draft is going to flow.
Travis Kelce is Travis Kelce
Last summer there was a little bit of nervousness about the Chiefs offense post-Hill and Kelce’s price dipped in some drafts. After a big 2022 campaign that price dip is a distant memory. You will have to spend over $40 to roster him, and it might take more than $45. You can budget to do it if that’s what you want but be prepared for the price he demands.
Running Back Value
For the first time in recent memory, some elite runners have palatable prices. Guys like Saquon Barkley ($41), Chubb ($42), and Bijan Robinson ($40) are cornerstone pieces who will see a big share of their backfield’s work and they are $10-$18+ cheaper than their wide receiver counterparts. Salary cap drafters should think hard about grabbing a Top-6 running back for the low $40s, and then spending up at wide receiver.
Wide Receivers are Expensive, But…
I think it’s safe to say wide receivers are going to cost more than they ever have. But, if you resist the urge to chase the top guys there are still opportunities to build quite deeply from the second and third tiers for reasonable prices. Further, even if you only nab someone like A.J. Brown as your WR1, you can still have three other wide receivers in the Top 30 if you go cheap at quarterback and tight end. Wide receivers are more expensive, but not cost-prohibitive.
Be Patient but Be Vigilant
This applies to every position, of course, but specifically, I want you to think about quarterback and tight end here.
Managers generally don’t respect the tight end position behind the top three of Kelce, Mark Andrews, and T.J. Hockenson. If you miss out on Kelce or Andrews be aware that nobody is interested in spending too much at the position. Allocating $6 or less can still give you one, or even two, good players to choose from once the season starts (Pat Freiermuth $6 and Evan Engram $5 are perfect examples). But when I say ‘be vigilant’, this is a spot where you can get someone considerably better – like Dallas Goedert ($10) – for just a few dollars more.
The same thing applies to quarterback. Be vigilant for the possibility that you can land a Top 3 guy for the mid-$20s. But if not, Trevor Lawrence and Deshaun Watson don’t look like they’ll cost too much and represent better options than the lower tiers for just a few bucks over replacement value. Even Justin Herbert ($12) can sometimes sneak through far too cheaply.
Don’t fall asleep when it comes to typical 1-QB, 1-TE, leagues because managers' well-timed strikes can net elite players for deep discounts.
Conclusion
The reality of salary cap drafting is that the only rule you can apply to all drafts is to stay flexible. Things will go differently than you think they will and your ability to adjust is how you draft a championship-level team. Hopefully, though, you can see some trends from these drafts, and some of the tips I’ve pulled from them will hold true in your leagues. The only task you have is to focus on the flow of the draft, watch for opportunities to pop up, and then pounce to secure the value. Happy drafting and let’s go win some titles!
| POSITION | PLAYER | PRICE ($) |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Justin Herbert | 12 |
| QB | Sam Howell | 1 |
| RB | Jonathan Taylor | 25 |
| RB | Josh Jacobs | 24 |
| RB | Devon Achane | 9 |
| RB | Damien Harris | 2 |
| RB | Roschon Johnson | 1 |
| RB | Zamir White | 1 |
| WR | CeeDee Lamb | 49 |
| WR | Stefon Diggs | 46 |
| WR | Tank Dell | 5 |
| WR | Curtis Samuel | 1 |
| WR | Isaiah Hodgins | 1 |
| WR | Mecole Hardman | 1 |
| TE | Darren Waller | 19 |
| TE | Hayden Hurst | 1 |
| K | Graham Gano | 1 |
| DEF | Miami Dolphins | 1 |
| POSITION | PLAYER | PRICE ($) |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Lamar Jackson | 23 |
| RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | 28 |
| RB | Travis Etienne | 22 |
| RB | J.K. Dobbins | 20 |
| RB | Dalvin Cook | 6 |
| RB | Chuba Hubbard | 1 |
| WR | Cooper Kupp | 43 |
| WR | Calvin Ridley | 30 |
| WR | Nico Collins | 5 |
| WR | Marvin Mims | 5 |
| WR | Jameson Williams | 3 |
| WR | Rashid Shaheed | 1 |
| WR | Michael Wilson | 1 |
| TE | Pat Freiermuth | 6 |
| TE | Gerald Everett | 2 |
| TE | Luke Musgrave | 1 |
| K | (Drafter left early) | - |
| DEF | (Drafter left early) | - |
| POSITION | PLAYER | PRICE ($) |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Jalen Hurts | 27 |
| QB | Aaron Rodgers | 3 |
| RB | Alvin Kamara | 18 |
| RB | James Cook | 13 |
| RB | Khalil Herbert | 8 |
| RB | Kareem Hunt | 1 |
| RB | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 |
| RB | Tyjae Spears | 1 |
| WR | Garrett Wilson | 39 |
| WR | Deebo Samuel | 26 |
| WR | Courtland Sutton | 8 |
| WR | Michael Thomas | 8 |
| WR | Romeo Doubs | 1 |
| WR | Van Jefferson | 1 |
| TE | Mark Andrews | 32 |
| TE | Cole Kmet | 9 |
| K | Jason Myers | 1 |
| DEF | Baltimore Ravens | 1 |
| POSITION | PLAYER | PRICE ($) |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Patrick Mahomes | 25 |
| QB | Bryce Young | 4 |
| RB | Kenneth Walker | 18 |
| RB | Javonte Williams | 15 |
| RB | Isiah Pacheco | 13 |
| RB | Brian Robinson | 7 |
| RB | A.J. Dillon | 7 |
| WR | Davante Adams | 41 |
| WR | Jaylen Waddle | 32 |
| WR | Brandon Aiyuk | 14 |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 10 |
| WR | Treylon Burks | 5 |
| WR | Allen Lazard | 2 |
| WR | Darnell Mooney | 2 |
| TE | Dalton Schultz | 2 |
| TE | Sam LaPorta | 1 |
| K | Daniel Carlson | 1 |
| DEF | New England Patriots | 1 |
| POSITION | PLAYER | PRICE ($) |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Kirk Cousins | 3 |
| QB | Jared Goff | 2 |
| RB | Saquon Barkley | 41 |
| RB | Rhamondre Stevenson | 26 |
| RB | Najee Harris | 19 |
| RB | Antonio Gibson | 4 |
| RB | Tank Bigsby | 4 |
| RB | Raheem Mostert | 3 |
| WR | Tee Higgins | 27 |
| WR | Keenan Allen | 27 |
| WR | Terry McLaurin | 20 |
| WR | Jakobi Meyers | 4 |
| WR | Zay Jones | 3 |
| WR | JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2 |
| TE | David Njoku | 6 |
| TE | Tyler Higbee | 1 |
| K | Evan McPherson | 1 |
| DEF | Buffalo Bills | 1 |
| POSITION | PLAYER | PRICE ($) |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Justin Fields | 13 |
| RB | Cam Akers | 16 |
| RB | Rachaad White | 15 |
| RB | Zach Charbonnet | 8 |
| RB | Kenneth Gainwell | 2 |
| RB | Kendre Miller | 1 |
| WR | Ja'Marr Chase | 58 |
| WR | Tyreek Hill | 54 |
| WR | Jordan Addison | 8 |
| WR | George Pickens | 4 |
| WR | Alec Pierce | 2 |
| WR | Adam Thielen | 1 |
| WR | Rondale Moore | 1 |
| WR | John Metchie | 1 |
| WR | Parris Campbell | 1 |
| TE | Kyle Pitts | 11 |
| K | Tyler Bass | 1 |
| K | Kansas City Chiefs | 1 |
| POSITION | PLAYER | PRICE ($) |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Joe Burrow | 17 |
| RB | Bijan Robinson | 40 |
| RB | Alexander Mattison | 21 |
| RB | Aaron Jones | 18 |
| RB | Tyler Allgeier | 3 |
| RB | Devin Singletary | 1 |
| RB | Ezekiel Elliott | 1 |
| RB | Jerome Ford | 1 |
| WR | A.J. Brown | 44 |
| WR | Mike Evans | 15 |
| WR | Drake London | 14 |
| WR | Gabe Davis | 8 |
| WR | Odell Beckham | 2 |
| WR | D.J. Chark | 2 |
| WR | Tyler Boyd | 2 |
| TE | George Kittle | 7 |
| K | Jake Elliott | 1 |
| DEF | Philadelphia Eagles | 1 |
| POSITION | PLAYER | PRICE ($) |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Daniel Jones | 2 |
| QB | Deshaun Watson | 1 |
| RB | Nick Chubb | 42 |
| RB | David Montgomery | 11 |
| RB | Rashaad Penny | 6 |
| RB | Elijah Mitchell | 1 |
| RB | Jeff Wilson | 1 |
| WR | DeVonta Smith | 30 |
| WR | Amari Cooper | 25 |
| WR | Michael Pittman | 14 |
| WR | Jahan Dotson | 14 |
| WR | Rashee Rice | 4 |
| WR | Richie James | 3 |
| WR | Jonathan Mingo | 1 |
| WR | Donovan Peoples-Jones | 1 |
| TE | Travis Kelce | 42 |
| K | Jake Moody | 1 |
| DEF | New York Jets | 1 |
| POSITION | PLAYER | PRICE ($) |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Trevor Lawrence | 13 |
| QB | Tua Tagovailoa | 2 |
| RB | Tony Pollard | 41 |
| RB | Joe Mixon | 25 |
| RB | Miles Sanders | 11 |
| RB | D'Andre Swift | 11 |
| RB | Jamaal Williams | 10 |
| WR | Christian Kirk | 18 |
| WR | Jerry Jeudy | 17 |
| WR | D.J. Moore | 13 |
| WR | DeAndre Hopkins | 13 |
| WR | Quentin Johnston | 7 |
| WR | Rashod Bateman | 7 |
| WR | Kadarius Toney | 4 |
| TE | Dalton Kincaid | 3 |
| TE | Chigoziem Okonkwo | 3 |
| K | Harrison Butker | 1 |
| K | San Francisco 49ers | 1 |
| POSITION | PLAYER | PRICE ($) |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Josh Allen | 26 |
| RB | Austin Ekeler | 47 |
| RB | Dameon Pierce | 14 |
| RB | Jerick McKinnon | 5 |
| RB | Jaylen Warren | 2 |
| RB | Gus Edwards | 1 |
| RB | Evan Hull | 1 |
| WR | DK Metcalf | 28 |
| WR | Diontae Johnson | 19 |
| WR | Christian Watson | 17 |
| WR | Marquise Brown | 13 |
| WR | Brandin Cooks | 10 |
| WR | Skyy Moore | 7 |
| WR | Hunter Renfrow | 1 |
| WR | K.J. Osborn | 1 |
| TE | Evan Engram | 5 |
| K | Brandon McManus | 1 |
| K | Dallas Cowboys | 1 |
| POSITION | PLAYER | PRICE ($) |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Anthony Richardson | 10 |
| QB | Geno Smith | 2 |
| RB | James Conner | 13 |
| RB | Samaje Perine | 9 |
| RB | Chase Brown | 1 |
| RB | Deuce Vaughn | 1 |
| RB | Leonard Fournette | 1 |
| RB | Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 |
| WR | Justin Jefferson | 65 |
| WR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 40 |
| WR | Chris Olave | 35 |
| WR | Elijah Moore | 7 |
| WR | Jalin Hyatt | 1 |
| WR | Michael Gallup | 1 |
| TE | Dallas Goedert | 10 |
| TE | Greg Dulcich | 1 |
| K | Younghoe Koo | 1 |
| DEF | New Orleans Saints | 1 |
| POSITION | PLAYER | PRICE ($) |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Dak Prescott | 3 |
| QB | Russell Wilson | 1 |
| RB | Christian McCaffrey | 52 |
| RB | Derrick Henry | 33 |
| RB | Breece Hall | 19 |
| RB | D'Onta Foreman | 2 |
| WR | Chris Godwin | 19 |
| WR | Tyler Lockett | 17 |
| WR | Mike Williams | 16 |
| WR | Zay Flowers | 10 |
| WR | Justyn Ross | 3 |
| WR | Jayden Reed | 2 |
| TE | T.J. Hockenson | 17 |
| K | Justin Tucker | 2 |
| DEF | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1 |
| DEF | Seattle Seahawks | 1 |
| DEF | Green Bay Packers | 1 |
| DEF | Cincinnati Bengals | 1 |
