Top 200 Value Based Rankings

Christian McCaffrey is the first running back off the board for good reason. He finished as the RB1 in 2023 after an RB2 finish the year before. Last season, he scored 358 (half-PPR) fantasy points, which was over 100 more than the RB2, Raheem Mostert. He just turned 28 years old, so age isn’t much of a concern. There was some question whether he would see a mega workload with Elijah Mitchell healthy, but Mitchell’s status didn’t matter–McCaffrey averaged 21.2 touches per game, which was second only to Kyren Williams. He should continue to be the focal point of the 49ers’ highly-efficient offense.

Bijan Robinson’s rookie season was inconsistent thanks in no small part to HC Arthur Smith’s insistence of limiting Robinson’s touches for most of the season. However in the 15 games where Robinson played at least 60% of the snaps, he averaged 14.5 (half-PPR) fantasy points per game, which would have been the 12th-highest per-game average last season. If Robinson gets Christian McCaffrey/Kyren Williams treatment–i.e. snap shares averaging 80%+ instead of last year’s 67.9%–then Robinson should live up to his RB3 ADP. Coming over from the Rams, Zac Robinson is the new offensive coordinator, and last season he and Sean McVay fed Kyren Williams to the tune of 21.7 touches per game. If Robinson sees that sort of work at his same fantasy point per touch efficiency, then he would average around 17.3 fantasy points per game, good enough to finish RB3 on a per-game basis last season.

Ja’Marr Chase missed several games in 2022, but finished with the fifth-highest per-game average. Last season, he was the fantasy WR10 and had the 11th-highest per-game average. Joe Burrow missed seven games, and Chase averaged 15.4 fantasy points with Burrow versus just 9.8 fantasy points without him. Over the last three seasons, Chase has averaged 16.1 fantasy points with Burrow at quarterback, which is great, but it’s not top-three WR great. His WR3 ADP is a little aggressive given his history as a producer, though there are worse ideas than betting on a 24-year-old receiver with 3,700+ yards and 29 touchdowns in three seasons.

After Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles on his first pass attempt of the season, it was clear that Garrett Wilson would be in for a tough season. He finished as the fantasy WR30 after a WR22 finish as a rookie in 2022. Since 2010, among receivers in their first two seasons, Wilson ranked seventh in receptions and 14th in receiving yards. In his last two seasons in Green Bay, Rodgers’ receivers averaged 1.41 (half-PPR) fantasy points per target, which is 45% higher than the 0.97 fantasy points per target offered by the Jets’ quarterbacks last season. Simply applying 1.41 fantasy points per target to Wilson’s 168 targets last season would yield roughly 237 fantasy points, or about what A.J. Brown scored as last year’s fantasy WR5. Matt Harmon’s charting of WIlson’s second season at Reception Perception supports the prospect of a breakout third year. Harmon called Wilson “the CeeDee Lamb of last summer” and says the “hype is real.” I don’t think Wilson’s WR8 ADP is much of a reach at all.

Derrick Henry finished as the RB8 in his age-29 season running behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Tennessee running backs averaged 2.2 yards before contact per attempt last season, while the Ravens were second (3.2) in the league. Henry posted the No. 6 rushing grade at PFF, and was 11th in yards after contact per attempt and 16th in broken tackles per attempt. His age is a minor concern, but if Henry can stay healthy he has the potential to put up monster numbers in the Baltimore offense, which has generated an average of 15.0 (running back) rushing touchdowns since 2020. Working backward, he has finished RB8, RB4, RB14 (eight games played), RB2, and RB3 in the last five seasons. He has legit 20-touchdown upside in the Baltimore offense.

As a rookie, Jahmyr Gibbs finished as the fantasy RB9 with the seventh-highest per-game average. In the three games that David Montgomery missed, Gibbs showed overall RB1 upside, averaging 23.0 touches for 132 yards and 0.67 touchdowns, or 22.2 fantasy points per game. The issue is that Gibbs’ workload took a hit when Montgomery was active. The duo played 15 games together, including the postseason. Montgomery averaged 16.8 touches and 14.2 (half-PPR) fantasy points while Gibbs averaged 13.7 touches and 13.7 fantasy points, so Montgomery outscored Gibbs in the 15 games they played together. In the last 12 games they played together, Gibbs turned 14.2 touches into 15.3 fantasy points, while Montgomery posted 15.0 touches and 12.7 fantasy points. So down the stretch, they were basically splitting the work and Gibbs was more productive on a per-touch basis, posting midrange RB1 numbers in the process.

The Eagles upgraded from D'Andre Swift to Saquon Barkley, who finished as the fantasy RB16 in 13 games played in 2023. (He was the RB11 on a per-game basis, which didn't quite live up to his RB5 ADP.) Still in his prime, Barkley should fit in nicely with the Eagles' offense, though he's likely to see his receptions decline, at least a bit. Swift's receptions per game fell from 3.4 (with the Lions) to 2.4 last year with the Eagles. Still, Barkley is joining a much better offense and will command bell-cow touches, though touchdowns may also be an issue given the Eagles' ability to run the Brotherly Shove/Tush Push. He should go off the board near the 1st/2nd turn.

Sam LaPorta finished as the fantasy TE1 as a rookie, which is an incredible accomplishment given the history of rookies at the position. It’s unusual for rookie tight ends to find immediate success, but LaPorta posted 86 catches for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns. Those were the most catches, the second-most yards (to Kyle Pitts), and the most touchdowns (tied with Rob Gronkowski) among rookie tight ends since 2003. LaPorta’s position-leading 196.3 half-PPR fantasy points were just the 19th-most by a tight end since 2010. He’s a good bet to repeat as the TE1 since he should only get better in his second season, and his excellent environment in the Detroit offense is unchanged.

In his second season, Chris Olave finished as the fantasy WR21, though he would have finished a few spots higher had he not missed a game. He was the WR25 as a rookie. His targets increased from 7.6 in 2022 to 9.0 per game last season. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception: “Playing in what quietly may have been the worst conceptual offense in the NFL with a limited quarterback, Olave showed off many traits you want to see from a player who can jump into the superstar tier of receivers.” The good news is that the Saints have a new offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak, who ran a Vikings offense in 2021 that generated the 11th-most passing yards and the ninth-most passing touchdowns. For the last eight games of the 2022 season, Kubiak also took over play-calling for the Broncos, and the team generated the 21st-most passing yards and the 14th-most touchdowns after finishing 15th and 31st, respectively, prior to Kubiak taking over play-calling duties. So there is optimism that Olave will be playing in a significantly better offense and that should help his bottom line.

Drake London finished as the WR40 last season while dealing with suspect quarterback play and questionable usage thanks to run-happy Arthur Smith. Kirk Cousins and former Rams OC Zac Robinson in the fold, the Falcons’ passing game should be more voluminous and more efficient. Cousins is coming off a torn Achilles in his right (plant) foot, but if he’s good to go, he provided 19.1% more fantasy points to his receivers than the Atlanta quarterbacks did last year. The Rams also attempted 10% more passes last season, so when those factors are combined, the Falcons’ receivers could be looking at a 31% increase in fantasy points. Such an increase would have put London at WR21. A breakout is forthcoming.

Jalen Hurts finished as the QB2 (behind Josh Allen) in 2023 after finishing as the QB3 (behind Patrick Mahomes and Allen) the year before, though he had the highest per-game average (26.4) in 2022. A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert all return, and Saquon Barkley replaces D’Andre Swift at running back. There’s an argument that Barkley could eat into Hurts’s rushing touchdowns, but with 10, 13, and 15 rushing touchdowns for Hurts in the last three years, that doesn’t seem likely. He’s still their best option at the goal line.

Cooper Kupp missed the first four games with a hamstring injury, and posted 8-118 and 7-148-1 in his first two games back before six-straight games with less than 50 yards receiving. In his 11 non-injury games, Kupp averaged 5.3-66-0.45 on 8.5 targets per game, which is a far cry from the 8.5-106-0.85 on 11.1 targets that he averaged from 2021-2022. Some of the decline may be age- or injury-related, and the arrival of a bona fide weapon, Puka Nacua, may also be playing a factor. Still, the 12.1 fantasy points that Kupp averaged in those 11 non-injury games equate to midrange WR2 numbers, and that’s where Kupp is being drafted (WR20) right now. For a player who probably still has WR1-type upside if fully healthy and rolling, Kupp is an intriguing fourth round pick.

Josh Jacobs finished the season as the RB23, but missed a few games late in the year. He was the RB19 on a per-game basis. Jacobs was the fantasy RB3 in 2022. Jacobs could see a massive workload if he can remain healthy, though the Packers have implied that they want to get rookie MarShawn Lloyd involved.

Rachaad White has a career 3.7 yards per carry, but he finished RB5 last season after an RB38 finish the year before. He didn’t play starter snaps until Week 10 of 2022, but he was the RB25 down the stretch. White turned in a top-five season in 2023 thanks to volume–he turned 336 touches into 1,539 yards and nine scores. Given that White’s production was volume-based, I’m a bit worried that he may lose some touches to fourth-round pick Bucky Irving. White was 48th (out of 59 eligible backs) in PFF’s rushing grade, though he had a similar rushing grade as Irving’s when comparing their final year collegiate rushing grades. If he retains his high workload, then he could once again post RB1-type numbers. If that usage takes a hit, he may be more of a fantasy RB2.

Despite missing a few games due to suspension, Alvin Kamara finished RB11 and had the sixth-highest per-game average. In 2022, he turned in an RB20 finish with the 19th-highest per-game average. He’s turning 29 years old this summer, so the production cliff is looming, but given the makeup of the Saints’ backfield, Kamara is likely to see a heavy workload again in 2024.

After 88-1082-6 in 2021 (WR21) and 99-925-4 in 2022 (WR23), Michael Pittman turned in 109-1152-4 (WR16) last season. He only played two full-ish games (95%+ snaps) with Anthony Richardson and posted 8-97-1 on 11 targets and 1-15 on five targets in those two contests. Richardson did target Pittman on 26.2% of his pass attempts, but he only averaged 6.46 yards per attempt on those targets. There’s no doubt that Pittman is talented, and Richardson was better than expected as a thrower, but his return adds an element of unpredictability when it comes to forecasting Pittman. In roughly 2.6 games of action, Richardson was on pace for about 222 yards and 1.15 touchdowns per game. On the flip side, Gardner Minshew averaged 229 yards and 1.08 touchdowns in his 13 full games as the starter, so maybe the difference isn’t so stark. (Minshew averaged 7.54 yards on 134 targets to Pittman, almost a full yard more than Richardson did.)

From a targets standpoint, Nabers should see all that he can handle, and he has the talent to produce. The problem is the quarterback situation, which currently features Daniel Jones, who is recovering from an ACL tear, and Drew Lock, who is on his third team in four seasons. As the top target in a suspect passing attack, Nabers will be in the WR3/WR4 mix this summer.

Mark Andrews was the TE4 on a per-game basis and the TE3, T.J. Hockenson, may miss the start of the season as he recovers from an ACL tear. Entering his age-29 season, Andrews should be fully healthy after missing a big chunk of time late last season with a nasty ankle injury. Since his rookie season, he has never averaged less than 50 yards per game and has averaged 0.48 touchdowns per game in his last three seasons. If he can play 16 games at those rates, he’s looking at 800 yards and 7.7 touchdowns.

After a QB1 finish in 2022–his first season WITHOUT Tyreek Hill–Patrick Mahomes had a disappointing QB7 finish last year. It was actually a bit worse than that as he had just the 14th-highest per-game average at his position. Obviously, the Chiefs went on to win their second consecutive Super Bowl, but his fantasy managers probably felt a bit jilted as Mahomes posted four-year lows in passing yards, touchdowns, and rushing touchdowns. It remains to be seen if this is a blip in his career or the start of a trend, but the Chiefs did try to shore up the receiving corps, replacing Marquez Valdes-Scantling with the productive Hollywood Brown and the speedy Xavier Worthy. Rashee Rice is facing some offseason trouble, but the Chiefs now have appealing depth in the receiver room. Mahomes should bounce back with a top-five season.

Joe Mixon is coming off a relatively quiet RB7 finish. He was RB13 on a per-game basis. He will replace Devin Singletary as the Texans' RB1, though Dameon Pierce may have something to say about it. Mixon hasn't cleared 4.1 yards per carry since 2018, but given his workload–19.4 touches per game in the last three seasons–he's been able to compile big numbers. He'll be in the RB2 mix as he enters his age-28 season.

Lamar Jackson finished as the fantasy QB3 in 2023 and had the third-highest per-game average. He missed some time in both 2021 and 2022, but had the eighth-highest and the fifth-highest per-game averages, respectively. His best season was back in 2019 when he finished as the QB1. Odell Beckham has moved on, but the Ravens are expecting Rashod Bateman to pick up the slack. HC John Harbaugh singled Bateman out as a player he expects to make a leap in 2024. Jackson should be a rock-solid top-five option at the position, but appears to lack the rushing touchdown upside with only 10 rushing scores in the last three seasons. Derrick Henry is now in the fold, so the Ravens don’t have much incentive to expose the 215-lb Jackson around the goal line.

Dalton Kincaid was the fantasy TE15 as a rookie, though he flashed TE1-type production when Dawson Knox was out of the lineup. In five games without Knox, Kincaid averaged 6.2 catches for 56 yards and 0.40 touchdowns on 7.4 targets per game. (He averaged 3.8-36-0.0 on 4.9 targets in 11 games with Knox, which is a bit worrisome since Knox is returning.) Yes, Stefon Diggs (160 targets) and Gabe Davis (81) are gone, so there are a ton of targets up for grabs. Kincaid should easily see 7-8 targets per game, but there’s no guarantee that will happen with Knox soaking up tight end snaps. Kincaid was 14th in yards per route run, though he was 10th from Week 8 to Week 13, while Knox was out. It would be coaching malpractice for the Bills to take Kincaid off the field consistently given the loss of Diggs and Davis, so I'm betting on a consistent uptick in usage. Also, while Kincaid has already broken out, tight ends tend to make their biggest leap from year one to year two.

Over the past three seasons, Terry McLaurin has the 16th-most targets, 19th-most receptions, and the 14th-most yards. I’m mentioning this because he’s entering his age-29 season and is going off the board as the WR31, exactly where he finished last season. (He was the WR25 in 2021 and the WR18 in 2022.) He’s experiencing another quarterback change, but given Jayden Daniels' accuracy–as charted by Derrick Klassen of Reception Perception–this might be the best quarterback play of McLaurin’s career. My primary concern is that the Commanders go super run-heavy to limit Daniels’ exposure, but as the clear-cut WR1 for a mediocre team with a potentially accurate quarterback, I’m in on McLaurin at WR31.

As a rookie, C.J. Stroud finished as the fantasy QB12, though he missed a couple of games. It was the ninth-best fantasy performance by a rookie quarterback since 2000. Stroud’s 4,108 yards were the third-highest by a rookie in that span and his 23 touchdowns tie for fifth-highest. Stroud is primed for another starter-caliber season, though they lost a good pass-blocker in tackle George Fant, who was replaced by second-round draft pick Blake Fisher. Stefon Diggs joins breakout stars Nico Collins and Tank Dell in the receiver room, so Stroud has plenty of weapons to throw to. He may be able to crack the top five.

In his first season with the Lions, David Montgomery smashed his RB28 ADP by finishing as the fantasy RB14. Moreover, he missed a few games, so his per-game ranking (RB8) was even better. His ADP is RB19, so drafters obviously believe that Jahmyr Gibbs (who is going off the board as the RB5) is going to have a larger share of the backfield touches this season. A few splits to note: The duo played 15 games together, including the postseason. Montgomery averaged 16.8 touches and 14.2 (half-PPR) fantasy points while Gibbs averaged 13.7 touches and 13.7 fantasy points, so Montgomery outscored Gibbs in the 15 games they played together. In the last 12 games they played together, Gibbs turned 14.2 touches into 15.3 fantasy points, while Montgomery posted 15.0 touches and 12.7 fantasy points. So down the stretch, they were basically splitting the work and Gibbs was more productive on a per-touch basis. The 12.7 fantasy points per game that Montgomery averaged in their last 12 games together would have been the 18th-highest average at the position last season, so Montgomery’s RB19 ADP makes sense if we assume that those last 12 games are more predictive than the full 15-game sample. To sum up, Montgomery should have a 15-touch role and offer solid fantasy RB2 numbers. He would have midrange to high-end RB1 upside if Gibbs were to miss time.

In his second season, George Pickens posted 63-1140-5 on 106 targets, and was the fantasy WR20. He was the WR27 on a per-game basis. This was with Diontae Johnson garnering 87 targets in 13 games, and now Johnson has moved on to Carolina. Pittsburgh quarterbacks offered 1.15 (half-PPR) fantasy points per target to their receiving corps in 2023. Both Russell Wilson (1.37 fantasy points per target, +19%) and Justin Fields (1.26, +10%) exceeded that number, so Pickens should enjoy improved quarterback play this season whoever starts for the Steelers. Simply applying those increased efficiency numbers to Pickens’ 2023 production yields a finish in the WR9-WR14 range, so there is some optimism that the improved quarterback play could result in a low-end WR1 finish for the third-year receiver. Of course, this assumes that he and Wilson/Fields have a good rapport and that he sees a similar number of targets (106). The latter shouldn’t be a concern, but it is thanks to the arrival of new OC Arthur Smith, who has a history of using his star players in frustrating ways. The good news is that Drake London (6.9 targets per game in both 2022 and 2023), Kyle Pitts (6.5 per game in 2021), and A.J. Brown (7.6 per game in 2020) all saw a similar workload under Smith as Pickens did last season. Unfortunately, London (WR40, WR38) and Pitts (TE5/WR32) failed to deliver WR1/WR2-type numbers, though Brown managed a WR12 finish in Smith’s last season running the Tennessee offense. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception wrote, “I like him as a player and recognize his improvement but his film leaves you with questions about whether he can be a guy a healthy NFL offense can funnel 25 to 30% of the passing targets through.”

Flashback to the 2021 season: Kyle Pitts is a rookie and has a competent quarterback (Matt Ryan) and offensive coordinator (Dave Ragone) willing to feature him. He catches 68-of-110 targets for 1,026 yards and one score. (He should have caught 4.1 touchdowns, according to 4for4’s expected touchdowns per our data scientist Kevin Zatloukal.) That year, he finished as the TE5 and had the third-best fantasy season by a rookie tight end since the 2000 season. He posted the fourth-highest yards per route run at his position. The last two seasons have been major disappointments, but Pitts has been dealing with subpar quarterback play and a play-caller in Arthur Smith who often refused to feature his best players. Now he has Kirk Cousins throwing the ball and Zac Robinson (of Sean McVay’s coaching tree) calling the plays. I think he has a great chance to see 100+ targets and pick up where he left off as a rookie.

Evan Engram led all tight ends in targets (143), catching 114 passes for 963 yards and four scores. Calvin Ridley was replaced by rookie Brian Thomas and Gabe Davis, so Engram’s role should be relatively unchanged. In other words, he might lead his position in targets again. He turns 30 in September, so a drop in production is possible, but far from certain.

In 16 games for the Eagles, D'Andre Swift totaled 1,263 total yards and six touchdowns on 268 touches. He began the year behind Kenneth Gainwell, but took over the starting job quickly once Gainwell missed time. He has a career 4.6 yards per carry and has excellent receiving chops which the Eagles mostly failed to utilize last season. Swift was the RB17 last season and the RB24 the year before, though he was the RB21 on a per-game basis in his last season with the Lions. Khalil Herbert (4.6 YPC) and Roschon Johnson (4.3 YPC) both ran well last year, though Herbert only played 12 games. The Bears running backs combined for 72 total catches, so Swift does have 40- or 50-catch upside once again. Given the size of the contract, Swift will certainly get the first crack at the Bears' RB1 job in 2024. Fantasy-wise, he'll be in the RB2 mix come draft season.

The relationship between the Steelers and Diontae Johnson had apparently soured so the team shipped him off to Carolina. He's entering the final year of his contract so we'll see if the Panthers give him a new deal. If not, he’ll be extremely motivated to put up huge numbers. Regardless, he'll be a major upgrade to the team's receiver room and will soak up plenty of targets from Bryce Young, who despite inefficient numbers was able to support Adam Thielen as the fantasy WR11 through 11 weeks last year. Johnson is entering his age-28 season, so we shouldn't be worried about a drop-off just yet–his struggles last season were mostly environmental. He's one of the league's best route-runners and will immediately become Young's top target. Anyone who believes that Young is at least a mediocre NFL quarterback should be all over Johnson at his WR37 ADP.

Despite seeing the 15th-most touches (253 through Week 17), Najee Harris finished RB26, two spots behind his more efficient teammate, Jaylen Warren. Warren’s touches increased from 10.6 to 13.9 when comparing the first half of the season to the second half. That increased workload may or may not carry over now that there’s a new offensive coordinator (Arthur Smith) in town. Smith is known to use his players in frustrating ways from a fantasy perspective. Interestingly, Warren’s increased usage did not come at Harris’s expense. Harris saw his touches increase from 14.4 to 18.8 from the first half to the second half of the season. (Harris/Warren combined to average 25.0 touches from Week 1 to Week 8 compared to 32.7 touches from Week 9 to Week 18, so Pittsburgh was much more RB-oriented in the back half of the season.) The Steelers figure to be very run-heavy under Smith so there should be room for both Harris and Warren in 15+ touch roles.

After an ACL tear derailed his second season, Williams played nearly a full slate of games in 2023, finishing as the fantasy RB31. He left Week 4 after only eight snaps, so when that game is removed, his 11.7 points per game average would have been the 23rd-highest last season. His advanced metrics weren’t particularly good, but that’s not surprising since it was his first season post-ACL. He was first in broken tackles per rush as a rookie, so the Broncos are surely hoping he can get back to that early-career rushing form. Per The Athletic, Williams will reportedly have to “earn the starting job in camp,” so the Denver backfield is one to monitor this summer.

Last season, Dak Prescott finished as the fantasy QB4 and had the fifth-highest per-game average. He missed some time in 2022, but had the 13th-highest per-game average, and he was the QB9 in 2021. So he has a long history of starter-level numbers. The Cowboys return most of Prescott’s weapons, losing Tony Pollard and Michael Gallup to free agency. The key receivers–breakout star CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, and Jake Ferguson–are all back. Dallas lost some talent along the offensive line, but they used premium draft capital to shore up the unit. Prescott should have another solid season.

The conventional wisdom was that Tyjae Spears would take over the starting job with Derrick Henry moving on, but the Titans moved quickly in free agency to lock up Tony Pollard, who had a disappointing fantasy season in 2023. He was drafted RB6 but finished RB18 coming off a broken leg in January of 2023. There is reason to believe that Pollard’s explosiveness could return in his second full season after the injury. Entering the 2023 season, he was one of the most efficient and exciting backs in the game, but the fantasy community soured on him quickly as he failed to provide first-round production. He averaged 5.3 YPC on 323 combined carries in 2021 and 2022, leading the league in yards after contact per attempt in 2022. Spears isn’t going anywhere, so the two backs will likely form a 1-2 punch for the Titans in 2024.

Jaylen Warren (RB24) finished two spots ahead of his backfield mate, Najee Harris (RB26), and if we just look at the back half of the season, Warren was the fantasy RB19 from Week 10 to Week 18. His touches increased from 10.6 to 13.9 when comparing the first half of the season to the second half. That increased workload may or may not carry over now that there’s a new offensive coordinator (Arthur Smith) in town. Smith is known to use his players in frustrating ways from a fantasy perspective. Interestingly, Warren’s increased usage did not come at Harris’s expense. Harris saw his touches increase from 14.4 to 18.8 from the first half to the second half of the season. (Harris/Warren combined to average 25.0 touches from Week 1 to Week 8 compared to 32.7 touches from Week 9 to Week 18, so Pittsburgh was much more RB-oriented in the back half of the season.) The Steelers figure to be very run-heavy under Smith so there should be room for both Warren and Harris in 15+ touch roles.

Austin Ekeler had 164 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 even though he left early with a high-ankle sprain. He returned in Week 6 and had a run of big games from Week 8 to Week 10, gaining 308 total yards and scoring four touchdowns in that stretch. In his last eight games, he only cleared 75 total yards twice, finishing as the RB29 for the year and the RB23 on a per-game basis. As he enters his age-29 season, he's unlikely to wrest the early-down role from Brian Robinson, but he's likely to operate as the primary pass-catcher out of the Washington backfield.

Reception Perception’s Matt Harmon compared Odunze to Davante Adams, calling him "a complete player who has no weaknesses in his game." However, targets are going to be at a premium until either D.J. Moore or Keenan Allen move on, so he is unlikely to make the same immediate impact as Marvin Harrison Jr. will in Arizona. Odunze will be in the WR3/WR4 mix as the likely third option when Moore and Allen are healthy, though all three players are new to Caleb Williams. The Bears can afford to bring Odunze along slowly with Moore and Allen in the fold. His fantasy value would skyrocket if either player were to miss any time.

David Njoku finished the season as the TE5 in half-PPR scoring, setting career-highs in receptions (81), yards (882), and touchdowns (6). He is the TE9 off the board in early drafts, but I think he can be lumped in a tier that includes Jake Ferguson, Dallas Goedert, Brock Bowers, Cole Kmet, and perhaps Taysom Hill and Dalton Schultz as well. Njoku simply has not produced consistently with Deshaun Watson. In the 11 games that they’ve played together over the past two seasons, Njoku has averaged just 3.8-36-0.27 on 5.7 targets per game while posting 5.1-59-0.37 on 7.4 targets per game in the 19 games played with literally anyone else at quarterback. Unless those splits are an aberration, Njoku is unlikely to live up to his TE9 ADP.

In his 11th season, DeAndre Hopkins posted 75 catches for 1,057 yards and seven touchdowns, which was good enough for a fantasy WR25 finish, though he was the WR32 on a per-game basis. The stretch I’m interested in is the eight games that he played with Will Levis as the starter. In those eight games, Hopkins averaged 4.0 catches for 68 yards and 0.75 touchdowns, which works out to 13.4 (half-PPR) fantasy points, or about what Mike Williams and Stefon Diggs averaged as the WR14/WR15 on a per-game basis last season. Levis targeted Hopkins deep early and often, and Hopkins literally led the league in average air yards (145 per game) during that stretch. He had the 18th-highest yards per route run (2.22) at his position. With Calvin Ridley entering the fray, Hopkins’ targets might be under a little pressure, though I’m more worried about age and injuries catching up to him. New OC Brian Callahan comes from the Zac Taylor coaching tree and Taylor is one of the most pass-happy play-callers in the league. So the Titans’ passing attack should have more volume, offsetting any loss of targets for Hopkins with Ridley in the fold.

We know Christian Watson has talent. In the 14 games over the last two seasons when he’s been healthy enough to play 70%+ of the snaps, he has averaged 3.6 catches for 61 yards and 0.79 touchdowns on 6.3 targets per game. Throw in some carries, and he’s averaged 13.6 (half-PPR) fantasy points per game when getting that many snaps. That’s what Nico Collins averaged as last year’s WR13 on a per-game basis. Watson has missed time in each of his first two seasons with hamstring injuries, but an offseason visit to a specialist in Madison revealed that there was an imbalance in the strength of his hamstrings which was causing the injuries. He has worked to cut the asymmetry in half, and continues to work to get the two muscles even closer in strength. If this is able to keep his legs healthy, it could be a boon for fantasy managers who are drafting him as the WR41 off the board. The Packers’ receiving group as a whole is going to be very difficult to project as there is a lot of talent WR1-WR5. Dontayvion Wicks and Bo Melton are arguably the best WR4 and WR5 in the league. Still, when Watson is healthy, the Packers will play him 70%-90% without much hesitation because he can completely take the top off the defense. When we apply his reception, receiving yard and touchdown shares from those 14 games where he played 70%+ of the snaps to the Packers’ expected passing numbers this season, then Watson projects to 947 yards and 11.6 touchdowns, which would make him the fantasy WR8. There’s obviously upside given Watson’s WR4-type ADP, but there are multiple ways (injury, WR-committee) for Watson to miss that expectation as well. I think he’s worth the risk.

Jameson Williams has had a slow start to his career, but that was to be expected since he tore his ACL in the National Championship Game during his final college season. He only played six games as a rookie, catching 1-of-9 targets for 41 yards and a touchdown while adding one carry for 40 yards. (These ridiculous numbers underline both his big-play ability and his inconsistency.) In his second season, after serving a six-game gambling suspension, he caught 24-of-42 targets for 354 yards and two scores while adding three carries for 29 yards and a touchdown. HC Dan Campbell said in February that Williams will “push to be a full-time starter” this season, and during spring practices Williams has been a “man on a mission.” On the plus side, the former No. 12 overall pick has elite speed and with Josh Reynolds moving on, there are snaps and targets up for grabs in a great offense. On the flip side, he’ll at best be the third option in the passing game behind Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, so it seems unlikely that he’ll be a consistent weekly contributor. He might be a “better in best ball” option. Regardless, given his talent and upside, he’s worth a pick in the double-digit rounds.

Marquise Brown enters his age-27 season on the heels of a disappointing 51-574-4, 101-target season, a far cry from the 91-1008-6 that he posted in his final season with the Ravens in 2021. Brown is a sizable upgrade over the recently-released Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Despite a second consecutive Super Bowl win, the Chiefs' passing game had a down year, so there is certainly room for the passing pie to grow, making room for Brown, Rice's ascension, rookie Xavier Worthy, and another quality year from Travis Kelce.

Tua Tagovailoa overcame lingering concussion concerns to finish as the fantasy QB10 in 2023. He posted the 11th-highest per-game average in 2022, so his fringe-QB1 ADP seems completely justified. He has one of the best receiving corps in the league, featuring Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Odell Beckham, Malik Washington, and Jonnu Smith–and one of the best play-callers in the league in head coach Mike McDaniel. Another QB1 season looks like a good bet.

Jared Goff finished as the fantasy QB8 last year and the key pieces are still in place. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs all return, and the up-and-coming Jameson Williams will likely replace the departed Josh Reynolds. Ben Johnson returns as offensive coordinator. I don’t love the idea of having Goff as my only quarterback since his home/away splits are so extreme. Over the past two seasons, Goff has averaged 21.3 fantasy points per game at home versus just 13.9 per game on the road. This is similar to what we saw with Drew Brees late in his career in New Orleans. As the QB12 off the board, Goff can be easily paired with another quarterback to form a potent committee with the intention of only starting Goff at home or in his very favorable road matchups.

Keon Coleman didn’t chart particularly well at Reception Perception, but the Bills used valuable draft capital to nab him with the first pick in the second round and he’s joining a team that desperately needs playmakers at receiver. It’s worth noting that as a sophomore at Michigan State, he outproduced Jayden Reed in Reed’s senior season.

In his third season, Joshua Palmer finished as the WR67, though he missed several games and posted the 47th-highest per-game average (8.9 half-PPR points per game). He set career-highs in yards per game (58.1), yards per catch (15.3), and yards per route run (1.71, 38th out of 102 eligible receivers). When Matt Harmon charted Palmer’s rookie season and found that he posted above average success rates on five of the 10 routes on Reception Perception route tree, even if his overall numbers weren’t great. Anyway, it’s two years later and Palmer is coming off of a season where he played at a 65-988-3.4 (WR34) pace. Of his 10 games, Mike Williams played in three, and Keenan Allen played in four. Palmer averaged 74 yards in the four games he played with Allen and without Williams, and one of those games was cut short due to injury. In the three games that he played without both Allen and Williams, Palmer posted 113, 47, and 44 yards, a 68-yard average. So without Williams, Palmer played at a 73-1209-2.4 pace. Those are low-end WR2 numbers. With Allen and Williams gone, Palmer has an opportunity to step into the WR1 role. His primary competition appears to be Ladd McConkey, but who knows, maybe Quentin Johnston or D.J. Chark will have something to say about it. My money is on McConkey/Palmer as the WR1/WR2, but not necessarily in that order. Palmer could easily garner more targets than a rookie who wasn’t all that productive in college. The Chargers will very likely be much more run-heavy under HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman, so the passing pie will be smaller for Justin Herbert and his receivers. Still, if Palmer is a regular contributor seeing 6-8 targets per game, he could be a good fantasy asset, especially since he’s being drafted as a low-end WR5.

Curtis Samuel is a long-time favorite of Reception Perception’s Matt Harmon, and whenever one of his favorites sees a role or quarterback change, I take notice. Harmon charted Samuel in the 2018-2020 seasons and he finished with a success rate of 75%+ versus man coverage–88th percentile, which is very good–in all three seasons. His 2023 charting revealed a 75.4% success rate versus man, and he posted a career-high 80.0% success rate versus zone. In his last four seasons with 15+ games played, Samuel has crested 613 receiving yards in all four years, and has added an average of 139 yards per year as a runner. The Bills get a versatile weapon to utilize alongside Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, and Dalton Kincaid. Harmon agrees, “...everything about his profile shows that he will make a significant impact for a team that needs him.” Moreover, Samuel is being reunited with OC Joe Brady who squeezed a WR25 finish out of him in 2020 (with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback). Samuel had 118 touches (41 carries) for 1,051 yards and five touchdowns that year. He will be one of my primary late-round targets this season.

In his second season, Doubs played all 17 games and finished as the WR35. He’s going off the board WR53, presumably because drafters believe that his role will be scaled back if/when Christian Watson stays healthy. Doubs has been a steady producer no matter who’s in the lineup. He actually averaged more targets, yards, and fantasy points in the nine games that Watson played last season. In two playoff games, Jordan Love targeted Doubs a team-high 12 times, completing 10 for 234 yards and a touchdown. No other Packer saw more than nine targets, and that was tight end Tucker Kraft.

Dalton Schultz proved to be a good value at the always dicey tight end position in 2023. He was drafted as the TE15 but turned in TE10 numbers despite missing a couple of games. C.J. Stroud was obviously much better than expected, which helped, but Schultz did not appear to be a top-two (or even top-three?) option when Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Noah Brown were all healthy. Despite finishing as a top-10 tight end, he saw four or fewer targets in six of his 15 games played. The Texans saw enough to value Schultz at $36 million over three years. He’s a baseline option at the position heading into 2024.

I’ve said it before–Nick Chubb is one of the best pure runners in the league. He had two tears–one to his MCL and another to his ACL–in Week 2 of last season and needed two separate surgeries to repair them. Our injury expert, Jeff Mueller, wrote, “What likely is not being reported is that there is a high probability that there was also capsular damage and secondary stabilizer damage, similar to what both JK Dobbins and Javonte Williams dealt with.” Mueller believes that the Browns are protecting themselves (by signing D’Onta Foreman) in case the 28-year-old is “never the same.” Chubb is currently the RB35 off the board and is going six spots ahead of his backfield partner, Jerome Ford. The good news is that Chubb released a video of him squatting an enormous amount of weight. He’ll need to graduate to planting and cutting, but clearly the leg strength is back. In 2022, he finished as the fantasy RB6 after a 13-game RB10 finish the year before, so Chubb is a worthwhile gamble as an RB3 or RB4 in the ninth round due to his potential value in the back half of the season. If he’s practicing in camp, look out.

In his 10th season, and his first with the Cowboys, Brandin Cooks finished the season as the fantasy WR41 thanks in large part to eight receiving touchdowns. His 54 catches and 657 yards were both four-year lows. The good news is that Michael Gallup moved on and the team didn’t really do anything to replace him, so Cooks should be the second or third option behind CeeDee Lamb (and perhaps Jake Ferguson), catching passes from a good quarterback in an efficient offense. The bad news is that Cooks is entering his 11th season and is facing another steep drop off according to Ryan Heath’s excellent Age Curves study. He seems like a good WR4 play, but he has a questionable ceiling at this point in his career.

In his second season, Shaheed increased his catches (28 to 46), his receiving yards (488 to 719), and touchdowns (2 to 5), while adding 723 yards as a returner. He posted a stellar 2.59 yards per route run as a rookie, and followed that up with a solid (if unspectacular) 1.67 yards per route run last season (40th out of 102 eligible receivers). He played roughly 58% of the snaps last season, but that number jumped to 63% in his last six non-injury games. With Michael Thomas out of the way, Shaheed could be a full-time player in 2024, and he should a big part of a more productive and inventive offense under new OC Klint Kubiak.

With Austin Ekeler vacating 230 touches, the Chargers had a big need at running back and Gus Edwards can run the ball. Prior to 2023, Edwards had never averaged less than 5.0 yards per carry, though he posted a career-low 4.1 yards per carry last season. Jim Harbaugh likes to run the ball, so Edwards could be the centerpiece of the rushing attack or perhaps part of a 1-2 punch in the backfield with either J.K. Dobbins or rookie Kimani Vidal. Entering his age-29 season, he should have a couple of productive seasons left.

Kirk Cousins is coming off a torn Achilles but should be ready to go Week 1 for the Falcons. He will certainly breathe life into a suspect Atlanta passing game hamstrung by Desmond Ridder and Arthur Smith's run-heavy tendencies. The franchise hired Zac Robinson away from the Rams to run the offense. He was the pass game coordinator/quarterbacks coach for the last two years. With Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts to throw to, Cousins is set up for success and should be able to continue his low-end QB1 ways.

Aaron Rodgers was the QB12 off the board last season and tore his Achilles tendon early in his first game with the Jets. The Jets added Mike Williams and rookie Malachi Corley, and the offensive line should make a quick turnaround after adding Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses and rookie Olu Fashanu. As the 19th quarterback off the board in early drafts, Rodgers is a sneaky QB2-type pick in the late rounds given his surrounding weapons (ahem–Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, anyone?) and an improved offensive line. Don’t be surprised if Rodgers posts a top-12 finish.

Through the first 11 weeks, prior to his abdomen injury, Luke Musgrave was the fantasy TE21. He returned late in the season and posted the second-most receptions (6) and the second-most receiving yards (66) in the Packers’ two playoff games. Tucker Kraft played very well in Musgrave’s absence, but Musgrave has the inside track to start this season as Kraft missed some time recovering from a pectoral injury.

It’s safe to say that the Deshaun Watson-to-Cleveland move hasn’t gone as well as either party would like. In 11 starts for the Browns (with 90%+ of the snaps), he has averaged 201 yards (6.58 yards per attempt), 1.27 touchdowns and 0.73 interceptions, with 29 yards and 0.18 touchdowns as a runner. That works out to about 15.3 fantasy points per game, which is midrange QB2 production thanks to those rushing numbers. The Browns added Jerry Jeudy to the mix, so Watson has a solid set of receivers to throw to.

Jonnu Smith finished as the TE19 in half-PPR formats and had the 15th-most receiving yards--a career-high 582--at his position. He's a terrific athlete and could shine in an every-down role, especially with Mike McDaniel scheming the offense. However, McDaniel only garnered 414 total yards from Durham Smythe/Julian Hill in 2023 and just 491 from Mike Gesicki/Durham Smythe the year before, so he's not exactly known as a TE-whisperer. McDaniel said in a press conference that “some people think that just ‘whatever it was, it will always be,’” indicating that Smith may have a larger role than people think. Smith will be in the mix as a fantasy TE2 and, given his athleticism, has upside if he grows into a 5-6 target role.

Ja’Lynn Polk has second-round draft capital and joins arguably the worst receiver room in the league, so a big role for the rookie is possible. He charted very well at Reception Perception and Matt Harmon says there is “so much to like” about Polk’s game. He’s definitely a player I’m monitoring this summer.

In his second season, Darnell Mooney caught 81 passes for 1,055 yards and four touchdowns and added 32 yards and a touchdown as a runner. He then posted 40-493-2 in 2022–Justin Fields' first season as the starter–and 31-414-1 in 2023--taking a backseat to D.J. Moore. He's likely to operate as the Falcons' WR2 but could be the third or fourth option in the passing game behind Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson. He should be in the WR5 mix as he tries to get his career back on track.

Dontayvion Wicks is probably the best real-world WR4 in the league. (Bo Melton is probably the best WR5 as well.) His snaps will be somewhat limited unless there’s an injury to Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, and/or Romeo Doubs, so he’s not a player that we can start with any confidence unless one or more of those players is sidelined. But in best ball formats he’s an intriguing late-round pick since he will poke his head up from time to time with a big game. Talent-wise, he’s capable of playing at a fantasy WR2 level for a stretch if he gets the requisite snaps.

In the first four weeks of the 2023 season, Hunter Henry cleared 50 yards three times and scored two touchdowns, though he didn’t catch another touchdown until Week 9 and didn’t clear 50 yards again until Week 15. He finished as the TE15, catching 42 passes for 419 yards and six scores in 14 games. Re-signing with the Patriots probably wasn’t a best-case scenario for his fantasy value, though he should remain the team’s starter and could work his way into TE2 territory if the Patriots are able to get better quarterback play out of Drake Maye and/or Jacoby Brissett.

Michael Wilson will likely be the third option behind Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride, but there was a lot to like about his rookie season. He caught 38 passes for 565 yards and three scores, and played at a 740-yard pace. His yards per route run (1.36) were middle of the pack among the receivers in their first three seasons with at least 35 targets. If he can stay healthy, he should be able to produce 700+ yards and 4-6 touchdowns alongside Harrison and McBride.

Will Levis took over as the Titans’ starter in Week 8. In the next eight games, he averaged 224 yards and 1.0 touchdown, with 7.1 rushing yards and 0.13 rushing touchdowns per game. He was the QB15 in that span but owned the 29th-highest per game average. On the bright side, his 7.4 yards per attempt was a solid mark and Derrick Klassen of Reception Perception wrote that Levis brings “a degree of arm talent and pocket toughness that isn’t easy to come by.” He doesn’t bring much as a rusher, but with Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd joining DeAndre Hopkins, Levis has an experienced and talented receiving corps. It wouldn’t be surprising if he were to work his way into the weekly streaming conversation as the season wears on.

Mike Gesicki is a great athlete and has two 700+ yard seasons (and another 500+ yard season) on his resume. He follows in C.J. Uzomah (49-493-5) and Hayden Hurst’s (52-414-2) footsteps, signing a one-year deal hoping to get his career back on track after a couple of disappointing seasons. His 6’6” frame should make him a good red zone target for Joe Burrow.

Some may want to write off Bryce Young after a poor rookie season, but HC Dave Canales might be a quarterback-whisperer. He was instrumental in the career resurgences of both Geno Smith in Seattle and Baker Mayfield last year in Tampa. Young’s rookie season probably couldn’t have gone much worse. He threw for a paltry 2,877 yards, 11 touchdowns, 10 interceptions and posted an anemic 5.5 yards per attempt. But in fairness, his top weapons were 33-year-old Adam Thielen (137 targets), rookie Jonathan Mingo (85), and D.J. Chark (27). The Panthers didn’t exactly set the rookie up for success, but with the addition of Canales and the incredible route-running of Diontae Johnson, things are looking up.

The Panthers traded for the "always open" Diontae Johnson, so Legette won't have the pressure of being the team's WR1 as a rookie. Adam Thielen, Jonathan Mingo, etc. don't offer insurmountable competition for a player with Legette's speed, production, and first-round draft capital. If Bryce Young and the offense can take a big step forward, and Legette is locked in as the team's WR2, he could make a fantasy impact in year one, though with Thielen still around, that’s no sure thing.

With Kirk Cousins leaving for Atlanta, the Vikings have a hole at quarterback and Sam Darnold is not a bad stopgap option as the franchise waits for J.J. McCarthy to be ready. In six starts for the Panthers in 2022, Darnold averaged a healthy 8.2 yards per attempt and threw seven touchdowns against three picks. He also averaged 18 yards rushing. In his lone 2023 start for the 49ers, he completed 16 of 26 passes for 189 yards and a touchdown and added 19 yards and a touchdown as a runner. If he enters the season as the starter, which seems likely, he'll have good upside as a QB3-type who has great weapons and can run.