Top 200 Value Based Rankings

Justin Jefferson missed several games with a bad hamstring injury, so he finished as the WR38, but had the fifth-best per-game average. When his injury game (71% snaps) and his first game back (18% snaps) are removed, he averaged 20.0 fantasy points in eight full games, and the last four of those games–7-84, 6-141-1, 5-59, and 12-192-1–were without Kirk Cousins. That’s important since Cousins is now in Atlanta and Jefferson will be catching passes from Sam Darnold and/or J.J. McCarthy. The vast majority of those Week 15 to Week 18 targets were from the capable Nick Mullens (9.1 yards per attempt, 5.2% touchdown rate), so it makes sense that Jefferson’s numbers didn’t dip much when Cousins was out of the picture. He averaged 8.3-136-0.75 on 11.8 targets per game in four games with Cousins and 7.5-119-0.50 on 11.0 targets in four games without Cousins. Either way, he was posting overall WR1-WR3 type numbers with or without Cousins. Jefferson was the overall WR1 in 2022, so there’s upside with him if he’s going off the board WR3 or WR4. The issue is that unlike the other receivers going in the top six, he’s undergoing a quarterback change. The Vikings do have two decent options in Darnold and McCarthy, so if one isn’t getting it done, the other might. There’s a bit of risk here, but Jefferson should have a high-end WR1 season regardless of Cousins’ departure.

A.J. Brown finished the 2023 season as the fantasy WR5 with the eighth-highest per-game average. He was the WR4 the year before and had the seventh-highest per-game average, so he has a recent history of midrange to high-end WR1 production. His environment is largely unchanged, though the Eagles hired Kellen Moore to run the offense. Moore’s offenses have finished in the top half of the league in passing yardage in each of his five seasons as offensive coordinator. Brown should once again post solid WR1 numbers.

Ja’Marr Chase missed several games in 2022, but finished with the fifth-highest per-game average. Last season, he was the fantasy WR10 and had the 11th-highest per-game average. Joe Burrow missed seven games, and Chase averaged 15.4 fantasy points with Burrow versus just 9.8 fantasy points without him. Over the last three seasons, Chase has averaged 16.1 fantasy points with Burrow at quarterback, which is great, but it’s not top-three WR great. His WR3 ADP is a little aggressive given his history as a producer, though there are worse ideas than betting on a 24-year-old receiver with 3,700+ yards and 29 touchdowns in three seasons.

Derrick Henry finished as the RB8 in his age-29 season running behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Tennessee running backs averaged 2.2 yards before contact per attempt last season, while the Ravens were second (3.2) in the league. Henry posted the No. 6 rushing grade at PFF, and was 11th in yards after contact per attempt and 16th in broken tackles per attempt. His age is a minor concern, but if Henry can stay healthy he has the potential to put up monster numbers in the Baltimore offense, which has generated an average of 15.0 (running back) rushing touchdowns since 2020. Working backward, he has finished RB8, RB4, RB14 (eight games played), RB2, and RB3 in the last five seasons. He has legit 20-touchdown upside in the Baltimore offense.

Sam LaPorta finished as the fantasy TE1 as a rookie, which is an incredible accomplishment given the history of rookies at the position. It’s unusual for rookie tight ends to find immediate success, but LaPorta posted 86 catches for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns. Those were the most catches, the second-most yards (to Kyle Pitts), and the most touchdowns (tied with Rob Gronkowski) among rookie tight ends since 2003. LaPorta’s position-leading 196.3 half-PPR fantasy points were just the 19th-most by a tight end since 2010. He’s a good bet to repeat as the TE1 since he should only get better in his second season, and his excellent environment in the Detroit offense is unchanged.

After Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles on his first pass attempt of the season, it was clear that Garrett Wilson would be in for a tough season. He finished as the fantasy WR30 after a WR22 finish as a rookie in 2022. Since 2010, among receivers in their first two seasons, Wilson ranked seventh in receptions and 14th in receiving yards. In his last two seasons in Green Bay, Rodgers’ receivers averaged 1.41 (half-PPR) fantasy points per target, which is 45% higher than the 0.97 fantasy points per target offered by the Jets’ quarterbacks last season. Simply applying 1.41 fantasy points per target to Wilson’s 168 targets last season would yield roughly 237 fantasy points, or about what A.J. Brown scored as last year’s fantasy WR5. Matt Harmon’s charting of WIlson’s second season at Reception Perception supports the prospect of a breakout third year. Harmon called Wilson “the CeeDee Lamb of last summer” and says the “hype is real.” I don’t think Wilson’s WR8 ADP is much of a reach at all.

With Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore gone, the Cardinals have the fifth-most vacated targets (217) and Harrison will soak up most of them. He's landing in a fantastic situation from an opportunity and quarterback standpoint and will immediately be in the fantasy WR2 mix with upside from there. Matt Harmon compared Harrison’s profile to Ja’Marr Chase coming out of college and added that Harrison “easily was one of the best prospects” he has charted for Reception Perception.

Taylor missed the first few games due to an ankle injury (and subsequent surgery) from the 2022 season and didn’t play 50%+ of the snaps until Week 7. From that point on he had the third-highest per-game average (16.8) at his position even though he missed three games due to a thumb injury later in the season. He missed six games in 2022, but played 15 and 17 games in his first two seasons. In 2021 he was the overall RB1, outscoring the RB2 (Austin Ekeler) by 60 points. Taylor should have a productive 2024, though there are a couple of areas of concern. Anthony Richardson only targeted his running backs on 10 of his 72 pass attempts (13.9%) and in the two full games that Richardson played, he saw three carries inside the opponents’ five-yard line while Indy running backs saw five carries. It’s obviously a small sample size, and Taylor’s availability may change the ratio, but Richardson’s 38% goal-line carry rate is pretty high. (For reference, Jalen Hurts had a 47% goal-line carry rate last season.) Taylor is a fantasy RB1, but perhaps lacks the receiving and touchdown upside of the backs being drafted ahead of him.

Travis Etienne finished the season as the fantasy RB3 with the fifth-highest per-game average in half-PPR formats. He was the RB16 in 2022, but didn’t play big snaps until Week 7. From that point on, he was the RB12. As he enters his third season, Etienne has a clear role and a high floor as the Jaguars’ bellcow back. He should provide solid RB1 numbers again this season.

As a rookie, Jahmyr Gibbs finished as the fantasy RB9 with the seventh-highest per-game average. In the three games that David Montgomery missed, Gibbs showed overall RB1 upside, averaging 23.0 touches for 132 yards and 0.67 touchdowns, or 22.2 fantasy points per game. The issue is that Gibbs’ workload took a hit when Montgomery was active. The duo played 15 games together, including the postseason. Montgomery averaged 16.8 touches and 14.2 (half-PPR) fantasy points while Gibbs averaged 13.7 touches and 13.7 fantasy points, so Montgomery outscored Gibbs in the 15 games they played together. In the last 12 games they played together, Gibbs turned 14.2 touches into 15.3 fantasy points, while Montgomery posted 15.0 touches and 12.7 fantasy points. So down the stretch, they were basically splitting the work and Gibbs was more productive on a per-touch basis, posting midrange RB1 numbers in the process.

Travis Kelce finished TE2, but it was a down year by his standards. His 984 yards were his fewest since 2015, and well off his 2016-2022 average of 1,230 yards per season. His 11.5 per-game average (half-PPR) was a pretty significant drop from 2022 (15.9) and 2021 (13.7). Both his yards per reception (10.6) and his yards per target (8.1) were career-lows. I think it’s safe to say that the soon-to-be 35-year-old’s elite production days are behind him, though he still offers high-end TE1 production in the Chiefs’ potent offense.

Jalen Hurts finished as the QB2 (behind Josh Allen) in 2023 after finishing as the QB3 (behind Patrick Mahomes and Allen) the year before, though he had the highest per-game average (26.4) in 2022. A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert all return, and Saquon Barkley replaces D’Andre Swift at running back. There’s an argument that Barkley could eat into Hurts’s rushing touchdowns, but with 10, 13, and 15 rushing touchdowns for Hurts in the last three years, that doesn’t seem likely. He’s still their best option at the goal line.

Davante Adams finished the 2023 season as the fantasy WR13 but saw the second-most targets, so he wasn’t all that efficient thanks to suspect quarterback play. Enter Gardner Minshew–maybe?–who hopes to start for the Raiders after 13 starts for the Colts last season. Minshew provided 1.17 (half-PPR) fantasy points per target to his receivers last year while Raiders quarterbacks combined to offer 1.18 fantasy points per target, so it’s not a sure thing that Minshew is much of an upgrade for Adams and Co. Adams averaged 6.4 catches for 68 yards and 0.50 touchdowns (on 11.0 targets) in 10 games with Aidan O’Connell at quarterback. Those are high-end WR2-type numbers.

As a rookie, De’Von Achane finished as the fantasy RB22 while missing six games. He posted the fourth-highest per-game average, just behind his teammate Raheem Mostert. He led the league in yards before contact per attempt (4.7), yards after contact per attempt (3.1), and was fourth in broken tackles per attempt (0.126). He was first in PFF’s rush grade and 13th in receiving grade. He’s a star in the making and has overall RB1 upside, but his workload is a concern. The 32-year-old Mostert is still around and should absorb 10-15 carries if he remains healthy. Achane only averaged 11.2 touches in the nine games he played with Mostert, but he did see an average of 13.9 touches in seven games when his first game (two touches in Week 2 vs. NE) and his injury game (two touches in Week 11 vs. LV) are removed. He averaged 20.1 fantasy points per game in those seven games, which is actually more than the 17.2 fantasy points he averaged in the two games that Mostert missed. If Achane sees around 14 touches per game and can stay healthy, he’s going to finish as a solid fantasy RB1. Any increase in touches could lead to a top-three type season.

In his second season, Chris Olave finished as the fantasy WR21, though he would have finished a few spots higher had he not missed a game. He was the WR25 as a rookie. His targets increased from 7.6 in 2022 to 9.0 per game last season. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception: “Playing in what quietly may have been the worst conceptual offense in the NFL with a limited quarterback, Olave showed off many traits you want to see from a player who can jump into the superstar tier of receivers.” The good news is that the Saints have a new offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak, who ran a Vikings offense in 2021 that generated the 11th-most passing yards and the ninth-most passing touchdowns. For the last eight games of the 2022 season, Kubiak also took over play-calling for the Broncos, and the team generated the 21st-most passing yards and the 14th-most touchdowns after finishing 15th and 31st, respectively, prior to Kubiak taking over play-calling duties. So there is optimism that Olave will be playing in a significantly better offense and that should help his bottom line.

The Rams drafted Blake Corum to take some of the load off of Kyren Williams, but I still think Williams is a good bet for a top-five season. He was the RB2 on a per-game basis while handling 21.7 of the team’s 28.0 backfield touches in his 12 games played. Even if his touches fall to the 18.0-19.0 range–or 64% to 68% of the team’s backfield touches–he’s still looking at 16.5-17.5 (half-PPR) fantasy points per game. That would have been good enough to remain the RB2 behind McCaffrey.

Josh Allen finished as the QB1 last year after finishing QB2 in 2022. He’s currently the first quarterback off the board, which is a bit surprising since he’s lost both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason. They have been replaced by Curtis Samuel and second-round pick Keon Coleman, so it looks like a downgrade in the receiver room. The other variable is Joe Brady as offensive coordinator. In nine games under Brady (including two playoff games), Allen averaged 233 yards and 1.56 touchdowns, with 47 yards and 1.22 touchdowns as a runner. This works out to 26.8 fantasy points per game thanks to those eye-popping rushing numbers. His averages in the first 10 weeks under Ken Dorsey: 260 yards and 1.90 touchdowns, with 25 yards and 0.70 touchdowns as a runner. That works out to 22.5 fantasy points per game. Under Brady, his rush attempts were 9.2 per game compared to 4.8 per game under Dorsey, so it’s clear that his rushing floor is pretty high heading into 2024.

Despite missing a few games due to suspension, Alvin Kamara finished RB11 and had the sixth-highest per-game average. In 2022, he turned in an RB20 finish with the 19th-highest per-game average. He’s turning 29 years old this summer, so the production cliff is looming, but given the makeup of the Saints’ backfield, Kamara is likely to see a heavy workload again in 2024.

Drake London finished as the WR40 last season while dealing with suspect quarterback play and questionable usage thanks to run-happy Arthur Smith. Kirk Cousins and former Rams OC Zac Robinson in the fold, the Falcons’ passing game should be more voluminous and more efficient. Cousins is coming off a torn Achilles in his right (plant) foot, but if he’s good to go, he provided 19.1% more fantasy points to his receivers than the Atlanta quarterbacks did last year. The Rams also attempted 10% more passes last season, so when those factors are combined, the Falcons’ receivers could be looking at a 31% increase in fantasy points. Such an increase would have put London at WR21. A breakout is forthcoming.

The Eagles upgraded from D'Andre Swift to Saquon Barkley, who finished as the fantasy RB16 in 13 games played in 2023. (He was the RB11 on a per-game basis, which didn't quite live up to his RB5 ADP.) Still in his prime, Barkley should fit in nicely with the Eagles' offense, though he's likely to see his receptions decline, at least a bit. Swift's receptions per game fell from 3.4 (with the Lions) to 2.4 last year with the Eagles. Still, Barkley is joining a much better offense and will command bell-cow touches, though touchdowns may also be an issue given the Eagles' ability to run the Brotherly Shove/Tush Push. He should go off the board near the 1st/2nd turn.

Puka Nacua posted 105 catches for 1,486 yards and six touchdowns as a rare “league-winner” in his rookie season. His numbers did take a significant dip in the 12 games that Cooper Kupp was active. He averaged 8.6-108-0.40 on 11.6 targets per game in five games that Kupp missed. In the 12 games that Kupp played, Nacua averaged 5.2-79-0.33 on 8.4 targets per game. That’s the difference between elite, top-five type numbers and fringe WR1 production. If Kupp is healthy, Nacua’s WR7 ADP may be wishful thinking. Nacua has overall WR1 upside if Kupp were to miss any more time.

Brandon Aiyuk was highly-efficient again in 2023, turning the 29th-most targets into the 12th-most fantasy points. He was the fantasy WR15 in 2022, so he has a recent history of consistent low-end WR1/high-end WR2 type numbers. Aiyuk got the very rare “all green” chart from Matt Harmon at Reception Perception meaning that he’s one of the “truly elite” receivers (Harmon’s words) in the league. Even if his usage isn’t as high as we’d like, he enjoys good quarterback play and highly-efficient play-calling. Now that he’s signed his extension, it’s all systems go for this young star.

Cooper Kupp missed the first four games with a hamstring injury, and posted 8-118 and 7-148-1 in his first two games back before six-straight games with less than 50 yards receiving. In his 11 non-injury games, Kupp averaged 5.3-66-0.45 on 8.5 targets per game, which is a far cry from the 8.5-106-0.85 on 11.1 targets that he averaged from 2021-2022. Some of the decline may be age- or injury-related, and the arrival of a bona fide weapon, Puka Nacua, may also be playing a factor. Still, the 12.1 fantasy points that Kupp averaged in those 11 non-injury games equate to midrange WR2 numbers, and that’s where Kupp is being drafted (WR20) right now. For a player who probably still has WR1-type upside if fully healthy and rolling, Kupp is an intriguing fourth round pick.

Isiah Pacheco finished as the fantasy RB13 in 14 games played. He had the 12th-highest per game average. In four postseason games, he averaged 23.3 touches for 93 yards and 1.5 touchdowns, which is high-end RB1 production. He was also regularly playing 70% or more of the snaps in the playoffs. The Chiefs will probably limit his usage somewhat during the regular season, but if that playoff workload is a preview of his 2024 workload, then he has upside from his RB12 ADP. He’s a rock-solid low-end RB1.

Josh Jacobs finished the season as the RB23, but missed a few games late in the year. He was the RB19 on a per-game basis. Jacobs was the fantasy RB3 in 2022. Jacobs could see a massive workload if he can remain healthy, though the Packers have implied that they want to get rookie MarShawn Lloyd involved.

Rachaad White has a career 3.7 yards per carry, but he finished RB5 last season after an RB38 finish the year before. He didn’t play starter snaps until Week 10 of 2022, but he was the RB25 down the stretch. White turned in a top-five season in 2023 thanks to volume–he turned 336 touches into 1,539 yards and nine scores. Given that White’s production was volume-based, I’m a bit worried that he may lose some touches to fourth-round pick Bucky Irving. White was 48th (out of 59 eligible backs) in PFF’s rushing grade, though he had a similar rushing grade as Irving’s when comparing their final year collegiate rushing grades. If he retains his high workload, then he could once again post RB1-type numbers. If that usage takes a hit, he may be more of a fantasy RB2.

Mike Evans is coming off a 79-1255-13 season, which was good enough for a fantasy WR4 finish. It was his best season since 2018 (86-1524-8), so clearly he and Baker Mayfield had a nice rapport in Mayfield's first season. Now entering his 11th season, his production should be falling off, but given his outstanding 2023 season, we can continue to expect WR1/WR2 numbers from Evans.

DK Metcalf turned in a WR15 season after finishing WR17 the year before. His targets declined from 8.3 per game in 2022 to 7.5 per game last year. New OC Ryan Grubb brings his efficient scheme from the University of Washington, so the offense should be better and perhaps more pass-happy. Geno Smith has solid deep-ball accuracy as well. Metcalf is shaping up to be a rock-solid fantasy WR2 (with low-end WR1 upside) yet again.

Deebo Samuel finished as the fantasy WR9 but was tied with Mike Evans with the sixth-highest per-game average. He had the 21st-highest per-game average the year before. Like his teammate, Brandon Aiyuk, the primary concern with Samuel is his low usage–he was 42nd in WR targets last season–so he has to be incredibly efficient to keep up his WR1-type production. Thankfully he has a highly-efficient quarterback in Brock Purdy, and plays in a highly-efficient offense run by Kyle Shanahan. He’s a high-end WR2 this year.

From a targets standpoint, Nabers should see all that he can handle, and he has the talent to produce. The problem is the quarterback situation, which currently features Daniel Jones, who is recovering from an ACL tear, and Drew Lock, who is on his third team in four seasons. As the top target in a suspect passing attack, Nabers will be in the WR3/WR4 mix this summer.

Kenneth Walker finished as the RB20 in half-PPR formats, though he had the 18th-highest per-game average. In 2022, he was the RB19, but really didn’t see lead back snaps until Week 5. From that point on, he was the fantasy RB7. In that stretch, he averaged 19.5 touches per game, but after the arrival of Zach Charbonnet, he averaged just 16.5 touches in 2023. He has RB1 upside, but Charbonnet’s presence caps his upside.

Jaylen Waddle is a difficult player to project in 2024. We know he’s talented–his 2022 WR7 finish and good charting over at Reception Perception underscore that–but he finished the 2023 season as the fantasy WR29 and had just the 23rd-highest per-game average. When his injury game in Week 16 is removed, his per-game average bumps up to WR21. Waddle does have midrange WR1 upside if Tyreek Hill were to miss time, but the arrival of Odell Beckham, Jonnu Smith, and Malik Washington means that Waddle’s targets are under some pressure.

Mark Andrews was the TE4 on a per-game basis and the TE3, T.J. Hockenson, may miss the start of the season as he recovers from an ACL tear. Entering his age-29 season, Andrews should be fully healthy after missing a big chunk of time late last season with a nasty ankle injury. Since his rookie season, he has never averaged less than 50 yards per game and has averaged 0.48 touchdowns per game in his last three seasons. If he can play 16 games at those rates, he’s looking at 800 yards and 7.7 touchdowns.

DeVonta Smith was the WR18 after a WR10 finish the year before. He was the WR15 and WR21 on a per-game basis in 2022 and 2023, respectively. His environment is largely unchanged, though the Eagles hired Kellen Moore to run the offense. Moore’s offenses have finished in the top half of the league in passing yardage in each of his five seasons as offensive coordinator, so perhaps Smith sees a bump from the 7.0 targets per game he garnered last year.

In his rookie season, Rashee Rice finished the season as the fantasy WR22, though he didn’t begin to play more than half the snaps until Week 7. From that point on, he was the fantasy WR19 with the 16th-highest per game average. Under normal circumstances, he’d be a no-brainer top-20 receiver pick, but Rice has had a tumultuous offseason, as he was charged with two felonies relating to a hit-and-run. He was also under investigation for an assault at a Dallas nightclub. The assault case was dropped, but the (more serious) hit-and-run case is working its way through the judicial system, though he may not face suspension this season since the trial isn’t set to start until December 9th. I’m moving forward on the assumption that he won’t be suspended in 2024.

After 88-1082-6 in 2021 (WR21) and 99-925-4 in 2022 (WR23), Michael Pittman turned in 109-1152-4 (WR16) last season. He only played two full-ish games (95%+ snaps) with Anthony Richardson and posted 8-97-1 on 11 targets and 1-15 on five targets in those two contests. Richardson did target Pittman on 26.2% of his pass attempts, but he only averaged 6.46 yards per attempt on those targets. There’s no doubt that Pittman is talented, and Richardson was better than expected as a thrower, but his return adds an element of unpredictability when it comes to forecasting Pittman. In roughly 2.6 games of action, Richardson was on pace for about 222 yards and 1.15 touchdowns per game. On the flip side, Gardner Minshew averaged 229 yards and 1.08 touchdowns in his 13 full games as the starter, so maybe the difference isn’t so stark. (Minshew averaged 7.54 yards on 134 targets to Pittman, almost a full yard more than Richardson did.)

James Cook saw a big spike in touches in his second season (6.9 to 16.5 per game) and finished RB10 with the 17th-highest per game average. Counting two postseason games, Cook’s touches really spiked once Joe Brady took over as the offensive coordinator in Week 11. Cook averaged 14.4 touches for 84 yards and 0.20 touchdowns in the first 10 games with Ken Dorsey at offensive coordinator. In his final nine games under Brady, he averaged 20.1 touches for 100 yards and 0.44 touchdowns. That works out 14.2 fantasy points per game, which equates to low-end RB1 numbers. The Bills did use a fourth-round draft pick on Ray Davis, who rushed for 1,000+ yards in both 2022 and 2023 at Vanderbilt and Kentucky, respectively, so it’s possible that the team is looking to take some of the load off of Cook.

Nico Collins had a breakout season, posting 80-1297-8 on 109 targets, finishing as the fantasy WR17. He fared well in Matt Harmon’s charting at Reception Perception: “As long as he just sustains this level of play, Collins will be a staple in the superstar tier of receivers for years to come.” While Collins is an emerging talent, his targets are under pressure with the arrival of Stefon Diggs. The good news is that Collins was very productive when Tank Dell was active (13.5 fantasy points from Week 1 to Week 12, low-end WR1 numbers) and then exploded for 126 yards per game in five healthy games without Dell. It remains to be seen how Diggs impacts the target pecking order, but given Stroud’s built-in chemistry with Collins and Dell, he may be the best real-world WR3 in the league.

Joe Mixon is coming off a relatively quiet RB7 finish. He was RB13 on a per-game basis. He will replace Devin Singletary as the Texans' RB1, though Dameon Pierce may have something to say about it. Mixon hasn't cleared 4.1 yards per carry since 2018, but given his workload–19.4 touches per game in the last three seasons–he's been able to compile big numbers. He'll be in the RB2 mix as he enters his age-28 season.

One has to think that the Packers offered Aaron Jones more than $7 million for one season in a restructured deal, so this may be a spite signing for Jones as he'll try to stick it to his old team. Jones was outstanding down the stretch, gaining 135, 130, 141, 131, and 116 total yards in five "must-win" games. Talent-wise, he should easily lead the Minnesota backfield, but the Vikings will want to use Ty Chandler to keep Jones fresh and healthy. His arrival puts a pretty serious dent in Chandler's upside. Managers will definitely want to start Jones in Week 4 and Week 17, when the Vikings face the Packers.

Trey McBride saw a bump in playing time in Week 8 and was the fantasy TE4 the rest of the way. He had the fourth-highest yards per route run (2.08) among tight ends in that span, and garnered the third-most targets (8.5 per game). The third-year tight end should serve as the No. 2 option behind rookie Marvin Harrison Jr., but Harrison’s arrival might put a dent in McBride’s heavy late-season usage.

Stefon Diggs finished as the fantasy WR15 last season but saw the eighth-most targets, and that sort of usage is unlikely to follow him to Houston, where he joins a talented receiving corps which features Nico Collins and Tank Dell. This receiver room may be difficult to project on a weekly basis if everyone’s healthy. Now 30 years old, Diggs should continue to have productive football ahead of him, but as he enters his 10th season, he’s approaching a pretty significant production cliff according to Ryan Heath’s excellent Age Curves study. His WR22 ADP seems a bit optimistic for a soon-to-be 31-year-old receiver who is changing teams.

Over the past three seasons, Terry McLaurin has the 16th-most targets, 19th-most receptions, and the 14th-most yards. I’m mentioning this because he’s entering his age-29 season and is going off the board as the WR31, exactly where he finished last season. (He was the WR25 in 2021 and the WR18 in 2022.) He’s experiencing another quarterback change, but given Jayden Daniels' accuracy–as charted by Derrick Klassen of Reception Perception–this might be the best quarterback play of McLaurin’s career. My primary concern is that the Commanders go super run-heavy to limit Daniels’ exposure, but as the clear-cut WR1 for a mediocre team with a potentially accurate quarterback, I’m in on McLaurin at WR31.

D.J. Moore had an outstanding 2023 season, finishing as the fantasy WR7 after a WR19 finish the year before. Justin Fields is out, Caleb Williams is in, so Moore should be getting a quarterback upgrade. The Bears have a new OC, Shane Waldron, whose Seattle offenses finished 14th and 11th in passing yards in the last two seasons. The team also acquired target-hog Keenan Allen and drafted the talented Rome Odunze in the first round, so Moore’s target competition got a lot stiffer. Even with a quarterback and possible OC upgrade, it will be hard for Moore to overcome all the target competition to remain a fantasy WR1. His early ADP (WR18) seems reasonable, but given how well Allen played last year when healthy, it’s no sure thing that Moore leads this team in targets.

In his ninth season, Amari Cooper set career-highs in receiving yards per game (83.3) and yards per reception (17.4) en route to a WR14 finish last year. He was the WR9 in 2022. Cooper is entering his 10th season, which is when receivers’ production tends to fall off of a cliff, per Ryan Heath’s excellent Age Curves study. Cooper’s splits with and without Deshaun Watson were similar, so that’s not much of a concern. Cooper’s career-highs last season are reason to be optimistic that his production won’t fall off too much in 2024. His WR27 ADP seems like a solid value given the age discount.

In his last 26 games over two seasons with the Cardinals, James Conner has averaged 17.8 touches for 88 total yards and 0.66 touchdowns, or 14.0 (half-PPR) fantasy points per game. That’s what Rachaad White and Breece Hall scored last year as the RB9/RB10 on a per-game basis. For his part, Conner finished RB25 last year with the 15th-highest per-game average. He was the RB17 with the 10th-highest per-game average in 2022. His RB23 ADP appears to be a bargain, though he has a couple of things working against him. He just turned 29, which isn’t a deal-breaker, but he’s entering his eighth season, which is when running backs, on average, see their steepest decline in fantasy points (per Ryan Heath’s excellent Age Curves study). His advanced metrics still look very good. He was sixth in yards before contact per attempt, 12th in yards after contact per attempt, and second in broken tackles per attempt. He was fifth in PFF run grade, and 16th in their receiving grade. The other worry is that the Cardinals added Trey Benson in the third round, and his 4.39 speed will add another dimension to this backfield. It’s probably safe to assume that Conner won’t see 17+ touches per game, but he is efficient enough to post solid RB2 numbers assuming he can stay healthy.

Before his groin/core injury in Week 13, Christian Kirk was the fantasy WR23 with the No. 28 per-game average. In 2022, he was the fantasy WR14. There have been a lot of changes in the Jaguars’ receiving corps, with Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones departing, and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis joining the team. The 27-year-old’s role shouldn’t change much from the last two seasons, so Kirk should once again deliver mid- to low-end WR2 value at the cost of a sixth-rounder (WR30).

Dalton Kincaid was the fantasy TE15 as a rookie, though he flashed TE1-type production when Dawson Knox was out of the lineup. In five games without Knox, Kincaid averaged 6.2 catches for 56 yards and 0.40 touchdowns on 7.4 targets per game. (He averaged 3.8-36-0.0 on 4.9 targets in 11 games with Knox, which is a bit worrisome since Knox is returning.) Yes, Stefon Diggs (160 targets) and Gabe Davis (81) are gone, so there are a ton of targets up for grabs. Kincaid should easily see 7-8 targets per game, but there’s no guarantee that will happen with Knox soaking up tight end snaps. Kincaid was 14th in yards per route run, though he was 10th from Week 8 to Week 13, while Knox was out. It would be coaching malpractice for the Bills to take Kincaid off the field consistently given the loss of Diggs and Davis, so I'm betting on a consistent uptick in usage. Also, while Kincaid has already broken out, tight ends tend to make their biggest leap from year one to year two.

After a QB1 finish in 2022–his first season WITHOUT Tyreek Hill–Patrick Mahomes had a disappointing QB7 finish last year. It was actually a bit worse than that as he had just the 14th-highest per-game average at his position. Obviously, the Chiefs went on to win their second consecutive Super Bowl, but his fantasy managers probably felt a bit jilted as Mahomes posted four-year lows in passing yards, touchdowns, and rushing touchdowns. It remains to be seen if this is a blip in his career or the start of a trend, but the Chiefs did try to shore up the receiving corps, replacing Marquez Valdes-Scantling with the productive Hollywood Brown and the speedy Xavier Worthy. Rashee Rice is facing some offseason trouble, but the Chiefs now have appealing depth in the receiver room. Mahomes should bounce back with a top-five season.

In 16 games for the Eagles, D'Andre Swift totaled 1,263 total yards and six touchdowns on 268 touches. He began the year behind Kenneth Gainwell, but took over the starting job quickly once Gainwell missed time. He has a career 4.6 yards per carry and has excellent receiving chops which the Eagles mostly failed to utilize last season. Swift was the RB17 last season and the RB24 the year before, though he was the RB21 on a per-game basis in his last season with the Lions. Khalil Herbert (4.6 YPC) and Roschon Johnson (4.3 YPC) both ran well last year, though Herbert only played 12 games. The Bears running backs combined for 72 total catches, so Swift does have 40- or 50-catch upside once again. Given the size of the contract, Swift will certainly get the first crack at the Bears' RB1 job in 2024. Fantasy-wise, he'll be in the RB2 mix come draft season.

Given his 2023 RB12 ADP, Rhamondre Stevenson’s RB33 finish was a disappointment. He missed a few games and had the 29th-highest per-game average. He was the RB23 at the time of his final (injury) game. He was the fantasy RB13 the year before, so expectations were high. He averaged 16.8 touches per game, which was a bit higher than the 16.5 touches he averaged the year before. The difference was that his yards per carry dropped from 5.0 in 2022 to 4.0 in 2023. His PFF rush grade (18th), his yards after contact per attempt (16th), and his broken tackles per attempt (26th) were all solid, though his yards before contact (39th) was not, which could indicate a problem with his blocking. PFF’s offensive line run-blocking grades don’t reflect that, however. With Ezekiel Elliott out and Antonio Gibson in, Stevenson’s touches should remain about the same which makes him a low-end RB2 given his sizable role in a low-scoring offense.

Lamar Jackson finished as the fantasy QB3 in 2023 and had the third-highest per-game average. He missed some time in both 2021 and 2022, but had the eighth-highest and the fifth-highest per-game averages, respectively. His best season was back in 2019 when he finished as the QB1. Odell Beckham has moved on, but the Ravens are expecting Rashod Bateman to pick up the slack. HC John Harbaugh singled Bateman out as a player he expects to make a leap in 2024. Jackson should be a rock-solid top-five option at the position, but appears to lack the rushing touchdown upside with only 10 rushing scores in the last three seasons. Derrick Henry is now in the fold, so the Ravens don’t have much incentive to expose the 215-lb Jackson around the goal line.

In his first season with the Lions, David Montgomery smashed his RB28 ADP by finishing as the fantasy RB14. Moreover, he missed a few games, so his per-game ranking (RB8) was even better. His ADP is RB19, so drafters obviously believe that Jahmyr Gibbs (who is going off the board as the RB5) is going to have a larger share of the backfield touches this season. A few splits to note: The duo played 15 games together, including the postseason. Montgomery averaged 16.8 touches and 14.2 (half-PPR) fantasy points while Gibbs averaged 13.7 touches and 13.7 fantasy points, so Montgomery outscored Gibbs in the 15 games they played together. In the last 12 games they played together, Gibbs turned 14.2 touches into 15.3 fantasy points, while Montgomery posted 15.0 touches and 12.7 fantasy points. So down the stretch, they were basically splitting the work and Gibbs was more productive on a per-touch basis. The 12.7 fantasy points per game that Montgomery averaged in their last 12 games together would have been the 18th-highest average at the position last season, so Montgomery’s RB19 ADP makes sense if we assume that those last 12 games are more predictive than the full 15-game sample. To sum up, Montgomery should have a 15-touch role and offer solid fantasy RB2 numbers. He would have midrange to high-end RB1 upside if Gibbs were to miss time.

In his age-31 season, Keenan Allen averaged a career-high 95.6 yards per game, catching 108 passes for 1,243 yards (his most since 2017) and seven touchdowns. And he did it all in 13 games played. He finished WR8 and was the WR3 on a per-game basis, so he's still very much in his prime, though he has missed 11 games in the last two seasons. Since he's playing with a new quarterback in Chicago alongside entrenched WR1 D.J. Moore, Allen's fantasy value is taking a hit as he joins the Bears. He could still post WR2 numbers if he’s able to stay healthy.

The relationship between the Steelers and Diontae Johnson had apparently soured so the team shipped him off to Carolina. He's entering the final year of his contract so we'll see if the Panthers give him a new deal. If not, he’ll be extremely motivated to put up huge numbers. Regardless, he'll be a major upgrade to the team's receiver room and will soak up plenty of targets from Bryce Young, who despite inefficient numbers was able to support Adam Thielen as the fantasy WR11 through 11 weeks last year. Johnson is entering his age-28 season, so we shouldn't be worried about a drop-off just yet–his struggles last season were mostly environmental. He's one of the league's best route-runners and will immediately become Young's top target. Anyone who believes that Young is at least a mediocre NFL quarterback should be all over Johnson at his WR37 ADP.

As a rookie, C.J. Stroud finished as the fantasy QB12, though he missed a couple of games. It was the ninth-best fantasy performance by a rookie quarterback since 2000. Stroud’s 4,108 yards were the third-highest by a rookie in that span and his 23 touchdowns tie for fifth-highest. Stroud is primed for another starter-caliber season, though they lost a good pass-blocker in tackle George Fant, who was replaced by second-round draft pick Blake Fisher. Stefon Diggs joins breakout stars Nico Collins and Tank Dell in the receiver room, so Stroud has plenty of weapons to throw to. He may be able to crack the top five.

Evan Engram led all tight ends in targets (143), catching 114 passes for 963 yards and four scores. Calvin Ridley was replaced by rookie Brian Thomas and Gabe Davis, so Engram’s role should be relatively unchanged. In other words, he might lead his position in targets again. He turns 30 in September, so a drop in production is possible, but far from certain.

Flashback to the 2021 season: Kyle Pitts is a rookie and has a competent quarterback (Matt Ryan) and offensive coordinator (Dave Ragone) willing to feature him. He catches 68-of-110 targets for 1,026 yards and one score. (He should have caught 4.1 touchdowns, according to 4for4’s expected touchdowns per our data scientist Kevin Zatloukal.) That year, he finished as the TE5 and had the third-best fantasy season by a rookie tight end since the 2000 season. He posted the fourth-highest yards per route run at his position. The last two seasons have been major disappointments, but Pitts has been dealing with subpar quarterback play and a play-caller in Arthur Smith who often refused to feature his best players. Now he has Kirk Cousins throwing the ball and Zac Robinson (of Sean McVay’s coaching tree) calling the plays. I think he has a great chance to see 100+ targets and pick up where he left off as a rookie.

Tank Dell finished his rookie season as the fantasy WR36, though he missed six games and left early in two others. In his nine full games, he averaged 4.9 catches for 72 yards and 0.78 touchdowns on 7.9 targets per game. The resulting 15.0 fantasy points per game would have been the seventh-most at his position, so there may be some value at his WR26 ADP. Drafters are likely fading him due to the arrival of Stefon Diggs, who will garner targets one way or another. Dell fractured his fibula in early December but is expected to be fine by training camp.

In his second season, George Pickens posted 63-1140-5 on 106 targets, and was the fantasy WR20. He was the WR27 on a per-game basis. This was with Diontae Johnson garnering 87 targets in 13 games, and now Johnson has moved on to Carolina. Pittsburgh quarterbacks offered 1.15 (half-PPR) fantasy points per target to their receiving corps in 2023. Both Russell Wilson (1.37 fantasy points per target, +19%) and Justin Fields (1.26, +10%) exceeded that number, so Pickens should enjoy improved quarterback play this season whoever starts for the Steelers. Simply applying those increased efficiency numbers to Pickens’ 2023 production yields a finish in the WR9-WR14 range, so there is some optimism that the improved quarterback play could result in a low-end WR1 finish for the third-year receiver. Of course, this assumes that he and Wilson/Fields have a good rapport and that he sees a similar number of targets (106). The latter shouldn’t be a concern, but it is thanks to the arrival of new OC Arthur Smith, who has a history of using his star players in frustrating ways. The good news is that Drake London (6.9 targets per game in both 2022 and 2023), Kyle Pitts (6.5 per game in 2021), and A.J. Brown (7.6 per game in 2020) all saw a similar workload under Smith as Pickens did last season. Unfortunately, London (WR40, WR38) and Pitts (TE5/WR32) failed to deliver WR1/WR2-type numbers, though Brown managed a WR12 finish in Smith’s last season running the Tennessee offense. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception wrote, “I like him as a player and recognize his improvement but his film leaves you with questions about whether he can be a guy a healthy NFL offense can funnel 25 to 30% of the passing targets through.”

After an ACL tear derailed his second season, Williams played nearly a full slate of games in 2023, finishing as the fantasy RB31. He left Week 4 after only eight snaps, so when that game is removed, his 11.7 points per game average would have been the 23rd-highest last season. His advanced metrics weren’t particularly good, but that’s not surprising since it was his first season post-ACL. He was first in broken tackles per rush as a rookie, so the Broncos are surely hoping he can get back to that early-career rushing form. Per The Athletic, Williams will reportedly have to “earn the starting job in camp,” so the Denver backfield is one to monitor this summer.

The rookie only played two full games and was knocked out of two other games before halftime, but he still showed flashes of fantasy superstardom accounting for seven touchdowns in roughly 2.6 games worth of action. He posted the highest fantasy point per attempt (passing + rushing) in the league. The Colts re-signed Michael Pittman and drafted another weapon, Adonai Mitchell, and should have a healthy Jonathan Taylor in tow. Only time will tell if Richardson is more of an injury risk than other quarterbacks, but studies have shown that mobile quarterbacks aren’t injured at a higher rate than “pocket” quarterbacks.

Last season, George Kittle averaged 5.1 targets per game in 14 games with Deebo Samuel, and saw 18 targets in the two games Samuel missed. In the six games that Samuel has missed over the last two seasons, Kittle has averaged 5.2 receptions for 84 yards and 1.0 touchdown. He’s basically THE fantasy TE1 when Samuel is out and just another TE1 when Samuel is active. Keep in mind that Kittle is entering his age-31 season, though his advanced metrics are still elite.

In his seventh season, Chris Godwin turned 130 targets into 83 catches, 1,024 yards, and two touchdowns. The Bucs played him mostly outside (~38% slot) after he ran 70%+ of his routes out of the slot in both 2021 (WR12) and 2022 (WR20). They are reportedly moving him back to the slot this season, which is good news. Last year, Godwin averaged 1.71 fantasy points per slot target versus just 1.03 fantasy points per non-slot target, so moving back to the slot should boost his production at this point in his career. He may also benefit from positive touchdown regression as he only caught two touchdowns with an expectation of 5.3 touchdowns. Keep in mind that those top-20 fantasy finishes came with Tom Brady at quarterback, and the team’s passing pie as a whole is much smaller with Baker Mayfield under center. With Mayfield, Godwin looks like more of a WR3 than the fantasy WR2 he was with Brady.

Raheem Mostert was basically a “league-winner” last season as he absolutely crushed his RB41 ADP by finishing as the fantasy RB3. After gaining 1,093 total yards and scoring five total touchdowns for the Dolphins in 2022, Mostert posted 1,187 total yards and scored an eye-popping 21 touchdowns last year. So why is he the RB26 off the board in early drafts? For one, he has the extremely talented De’Von Achane nipping at his heels. The other factor is that he’s no spring chicken at 32 years old, and the production drop off comes for everyone. Still, RB26 seems too low for a player who just finished in the top five and is in basically the same situation. In Mostert’s last four games with Achane, he averaged 15.8 touches for 61 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game.

As a rookie, Zay Flowers was the fantasy WR27 but was the WR34 on a per-game basis. The Ravens let Odell Beckham walk, and didn’t really replace him, so the team is likely to have Flowers, Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor as its top three receivers. Flowers should see plenty of targets and become a more consistent weapon in his second season.

Despite seeing the 15th-most touches (253 through Week 17), Najee Harris finished RB26, two spots behind his more efficient teammate, Jaylen Warren. Warren’s touches increased from 10.6 to 13.9 when comparing the first half of the season to the second half. That increased workload may or may not carry over now that there’s a new offensive coordinator (Arthur Smith) in town. Smith is known to use his players in frustrating ways from a fantasy perspective. Interestingly, Warren’s increased usage did not come at Harris’s expense. Harris saw his touches increase from 14.4 to 18.8 from the first half to the second half of the season. (Harris/Warren combined to average 25.0 touches from Week 1 to Week 8 compared to 32.7 touches from Week 9 to Week 18, so Pittsburgh was much more RB-oriented in the back half of the season.) The Steelers figure to be very run-heavy under Smith so there should be room for both Harris and Warren in 15+ touch roles.

Calvin Ridley finished the 2023 season WR24 after being drafted WR14, so his first (and only) year with the Jaguars was a bit of a disappointment. Now he joins the Titans to play alongside DeAndre Hopkins with Will Levis at quarterback. The Titans have traditionally been pretty run-heavy, but new head coach Brian Callahan served as the offensive coordinator for the Bengals for the last five seasons. He didn't call the plays, but the Bengals were pretty pass-heavy in that span. (Cincinnati was second in pass rate over expectation in each of the last two seasons.) If Callahan brings those pass-heavy tendencies to the Titans, and Levis is up to the task, then Ridley and Hopkins could have productive fantasy seasons.

Zamir White is slated for RB1 duties after Josh Jacobs moved onto Green Bay. White filled that role for four games late last season, gaining 83, 145, 106, and 121 total yards in consecutive games. He scored one touchdown, caught nine passes, and was the fantasy RB8 in that span. Among the 41 running backs with 25+ total carries in the last four weeks, White was ninth in yards after contact per attempt. He had the No. 20 rushing grade (out of 55 backs) in that span per PFF, and he fared well as a pass-blocker.

Austin Ekeler had 164 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 even though he left early with a high-ankle sprain. He returned in Week 6 and had a run of big games from Week 8 to Week 10, gaining 308 total yards and scoring four touchdowns in that stretch. In his last eight games, he only cleared 75 total yards twice, finishing as the RB29 for the year and the RB23 on a per-game basis. As he enters his age-29 season, he's unlikely to wrest the early-down role from Brian Robinson, but he's likely to operate as the primary pass-catcher out of the Washington backfield.

As a rookie, Jaxon Smith-Njigba finished the season as the fantasy WR46 and his early ADP has him going WR45 off the board. He still may be blocked by Tyler Lockett, though there were some signs in Lockett’s 2023 season that indicated his efficiency was dropping. Lockett set a six-year low in yards per route run, so there is an opening for JSN to carve out a bigger role in his second season. HC Mike Macdonald said that he’d be a “massive piece” of the offense. JSN fared well in Matt Harmon’s charting at Reception Perception: “He’s a good route runner.” New OC Ryan Grubb will likely better utilize Smith-Njigba’s skillset as well. Smith-Njigba still has environmental issues (i.e. Lockett’s presence), but the chances that he emerges as the No. 2 option in a more efficient offense seem much higher in 2024.

Kyler Murray sat out the first nine games after tearing his ACL late in the 2023 season. From Week 10 to Week 17, he was the fantasy QB10. That mirrored the QB8 production he provided in the 10 games prior to his injury in 2022. He was the QB10 in 2021 but had the fourth-highest per-game average that year. Hollywood Brown has been replaced by Marvin Harrison Jr., which looks like an upgrade. Murray also has other competent weapons like Trey McBride, Michael Wilson, and Greg Dortch. Murray’s rushing was down a little when compared to pre-injury 2022, and he should be fully healthy heading into the 2024 season. He’s a solid QB1.

The Chargers lost both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, so they check in with the most vacated targets (395) this year. Justin Herbert is a quality quarterback and McConkey is not only a great athlete but he's also a great route-runner, according to Matt Harmon, who compared him to longtime Reception Perception favorite Tyler Lockett. This is a great fit and McConkey should see all the targets he can handle in his rookie season. He should be in the WR2/WR3 mix in fantasy drafts.

Jaylen Warren (RB24) finished two spots ahead of his backfield mate, Najee Harris (RB26), and if we just look at the back half of the season, Warren was the fantasy RB19 from Week 10 to Week 18. His touches increased from 10.6 to 13.9 when comparing the first half of the season to the second half. That increased workload may or may not carry over now that there’s a new offensive coordinator (Arthur Smith) in town. Smith is known to use his players in frustrating ways from a fantasy perspective. Interestingly, Warren’s increased usage did not come at Harris’s expense. Harris saw his touches increase from 14.4 to 18.8 from the first half to the second half of the season. (Harris/Warren combined to average 25.0 touches from Week 1 to Week 8 compared to 32.7 touches from Week 9 to Week 18, so Pittsburgh was much more RB-oriented in the back half of the season.) The Steelers figure to be very run-heavy under Smith so there should be room for both Warren and Harris in 15+ touch roles.

Last season, Dak Prescott finished as the fantasy QB4 and had the fifth-highest per-game average. He missed some time in 2022, but had the 13th-highest per-game average, and he was the QB9 in 2021. So he has a long history of starter-level numbers. The Cowboys return most of Prescott’s weapons, losing Tony Pollard and Michael Gallup to free agency. The key receivers–breakout star CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, and Jake Ferguson–are all back. Dallas lost some talent along the offensive line, but they used premium draft capital to shore up the unit. Prescott should have another solid season.

Devin Singletary finished RB30 last year, one spot below Austin Ekeler. He was the RB40 on a per-game basis, but didn't play starter's snaps until Week 9. From that point on, he was the fantasy RB9 and was the RB20 on a per-game basis, so he will be undervalued heading into 2024 if he’s slated to handle bell-cow duties for the Giants. He averaged 89 total yards (and 4.56 yards per carry) once he took over in Week 9, though his yards after contact per attempt (43rd of 51 running backs with 50+ carries in that span) and his PFF rushing grade (29th of 60 qualified backs) were nothing to write home about. The Giants drafted Tyrone Tracy in the fifth round, and he may carve out a role on third downs and in the return game.

Tee Higgins wants a new contract but he and the Bengals were unable to come to terms so he will play under the franchise tag in 2024. He finished as the WR45 last year, but missed a few games and was the WR40 on a per-game basis. He was the WR12 in 2022, but that had a lot to do with Ja’Marr Chase missing five games that year. In 23 games with Chase over the last two years, Higgins has averaged 3.7 catches for 51 yards and 0.39 touchdowns on 6.2 targets per game. If we only look at splits with Chase and a healthy Joe Burrow, then Higgins’ averages are 4.1-54-0.39 on 6.6 targets per game. The resulting 9.9 (half-PPR) fantasy points per game equate to midrange WR4 numbers. Higgins has massive upside in the event of a Chase injury, but if Chase is healthy, Higgins is a fringe fantasy starter. The Bengals lost Tyler Boyd but added the talented Jermaine Burton, adding more pressure to Higgins’ targets.

The conventional wisdom was that Tyjae Spears would take over the starting job with Derrick Henry moving on, but the Titans moved quickly in free agency to lock up Tony Pollard, who had a disappointing fantasy season in 2023. He was drafted RB6 but finished RB18 coming off a broken leg in January of 2023. There is reason to believe that Pollard’s explosiveness could return in his second full season after the injury. Entering the 2023 season, he was one of the most efficient and exciting backs in the game, but the fantasy community soured on him quickly as he failed to provide first-round production. He averaged 5.3 YPC on 323 combined carries in 2021 and 2022, leading the league in yards after contact per attempt in 2022. Spears isn’t going anywhere, so the two backs will likely form a 1-2 punch for the Titans in 2024.

At first glance, Worthy's targets may be initially blocked by Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and Marquise Brown, but Kelce is no spring chicken, Rice is dealing with legal issues (though it doesn’t look like he will be suspended this season), and Brown dealing with an injury. Not since Tyreek Hill have the Chiefs had a receiver with this kind of speed (4.21 40-yard dash), and HC Andy Reid will scheme ways to use it from the get-go.

Brian Thomas Jr. joins Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and Gabe Davis to provide a potent receiving corps for Trevor Lawrence. Talent-wise, Thomas could be a top-two option for Jacksonville, but it will be a challenge to unseat Engram (8.4 targets per game) or Kirk (7.1) in terms of targets. However, Calvin Ridley vacated 8.0 targets per game, and Zay Jones (7.1) was also cut, so there are snaps and targets available for both Thomas and Davis. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception said that Thomas has "earned his standing as the first name mentioned" after the top-three receivers in the 2024 draft class, so he’s a breakout candidate in his first season.

Jake Ferguson was one of my favorite late-round tight ends last year and he didn’t disappoint, finishing TE8 versus a TE23 positional ADP. Our own Matt Okada found that Ferguson should have scored an additional 3.6 touchdowns to meet his expected touchdown opportunity. We saw some regression immediately after the season as he caught three touchdowns in the Cowboys’ playoff loss to the Packers. Had he scored an additional 3.8 touchdowns he would have finished TE6 instead of TE8. (He led his position with 12 targets inside the 10-yard line.) As the TE9 off the board, Ferguson is probably the last TE1-type that I’d feel comfortable rolling with as my only tight end.

In his 11th season, DeAndre Hopkins posted 75 catches for 1,057 yards and seven touchdowns, which was good enough for a fantasy WR25 finish, though he was the WR32 on a per-game basis. The stretch I’m interested in is the eight games that he played with Will Levis as the starter. In those eight games, Hopkins averaged 4.0 catches for 68 yards and 0.75 touchdowns, which works out to 13.4 (half-PPR) fantasy points, or about what Mike Williams and Stefon Diggs averaged as the WR14/WR15 on a per-game basis last season. Levis targeted Hopkins deep early and often, and Hopkins literally led the league in average air yards (145 per game) during that stretch. He had the 18th-highest yards per route run (2.22) at his position. With Calvin Ridley entering the fray, Hopkins’ targets might be under a little pressure, though I’m more worried about age and injuries catching up to him. New OC Brian Callahan comes from the Zac Taylor coaching tree and Taylor is one of the most pass-happy play-callers in the league. So the Titans’ passing attack should have more volume, offsetting any loss of targets for Hopkins with Ridley in the fold.

Joe Burrow was the QB17 through 10 weeks, before he suffered a season-ending wrist injury in Week 11. After a very rough start–Burrow was the QB31 through the first four weeks!–he settled in and was the QB6 from Week 5 to Week 10. This production was more in line with his QB4 finish in 2022 and his QB6 finish in 2021. We can probably write off those early-season struggles as an aberration. The Bengals lost Tyler Boyd in free agency, but added the talented Jermaine Burton in the Draft. At tight end, they replaced Irv Smith with Mike Gesicki, who will join mini-breakout Tanner Hudson and Drew Sample in the tight end room. Burrow should post solid QB1-type numbers in 2024.

Jordan Love was the fantasy QB15 through the first nine weeks, which wasn’t a bad start considering he was the QB26 in 2023 ADP. From Week 10 to Week 17, he was the fantasy QB2 behind only Dak Prescott. He finished with 4,159 yards and 32 touchdowns, adding a solid 247 yards and four touchdowns as a runner. That made him the QB5 in fantasy and the best draft day value at his position. While his receiving corps lacks star power, it is arguably the deepest receiver room in the league, with Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, and Bo Melton providing timely and productive play whenever called upon. Love also has a couple of talented young tight ends in Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft. As this group grows together, Love is a good bet for another top-10 finish and has proven top-five upside.

In his sixth season, Courtland Sutton finished as the WR32, driven by a career-high 10 receiving touchdowns. (He had never caught more than six touchdowns in a season.) Jerry Jeudy was traded to the Browns, so that leaves Sutton as the no-brainer top option for rookie Bo Nix, who seems to be winning the starting job. As it stands, Sutton looks like the best receiving option in what’s shaping up to be a below average passing attack, but someone has to catch the ball and Sutton is a proven producer.

Reception Perception’s Matt Harmon compared Odunze to Davante Adams, calling him "a complete player who has no weaknesses in his game." However, targets are going to be at a premium until either D.J. Moore or Keenan Allen move on, so he is unlikely to make the same immediate impact as Marvin Harrison Jr. will in Arizona. Odunze will be in the WR3/WR4 mix as the likely third option when Moore and Allen are healthy, though all three players are new to Caleb Williams. The Bears can afford to bring Odunze along slowly with Moore and Allen in the fold. His fantasy value would skyrocket if either player were to miss any time.

Zack Moss filled in admirably for an injured Jonathan Taylor. In the eight games where Moss played at least half the snaps, he averaged 20.9 touches for 94 yards (4.12 yards per carry), and 0.63 touchdowns. The resulting 14.7 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) would have been the eighth-highest last year (ahead of David Montgomery and just behind Jahmyr Gibbs). Moss will likely cede some touches to Chase Brown, who had 50+ total yards in four of his last six games.

David Njoku finished the season as the TE5 in half-PPR scoring, setting career-highs in receptions (81), yards (882), and touchdowns (6). He is the TE9 off the board in early drafts, but I think he can be lumped in a tier that includes Jake Ferguson, Dallas Goedert, Brock Bowers, Cole Kmet, and perhaps Taysom Hill and Dalton Schultz as well. Njoku simply has not produced consistently with Deshaun Watson. In the 11 games that they’ve played together over the past two seasons, Njoku has averaged just 3.8-36-0.27 on 5.7 targets per game while posting 5.1-59-0.37 on 7.4 targets per game in the 19 games played with literally anyone else at quarterback. Unless those splits are an aberration, Njoku is unlikely to live up to his TE9 ADP.

In his ninth season, Tyler Lockett’s efficiency numbers were down across the board. He set a six-year low in yards per game, a three-year low in yards per catch, and a six-year low in yards per route run. He finished the season as the fantasy WR34 and is going off the board as the WR50. Drafters are favoring Jaxon Smith-Njigba over Lockett, and it makes some sense given Lockett’s age and a somewhat disappointing 2023 season. New OC Ryan Grubb should be able to breathe some life into the offense, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Lockett is once again able to post WR3-type numbers.

Jerome Ford finished as the fantasy RB15 even though his rushing numbers (4.0 YPC, 48 yards per game) were nothing to write home about. He averaged 2.6 catches for 19 yards and 0.29 touchdowns per game, which boosted his fantasy floor. Ford should offer solid fantasy RB2 numbers until Nick Chubb is ready to go, and he may not be a full-go until midseason. The arrival of D’Onta Foreman is a minor concern.

Dallas Goedert missed three games but still finished TE14. He was tied with Trey McBride for the 11th-highest per game average. In 2022, he had the fifth-highest per game average, but missed five games. Last season, he averaged 6.2 targets per game, which was the seventh-most among tight ends. He’s a key cog in the Philadelphia passing attack, though he’s typically the third option behind A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. At 29 years old, I’m expecting another year of solid production, but those missed games are piling up.

Last year, Derrick Klassen of Reception Perception identified C.J. Stroud as the most accurate passer in last year's draft class. Guess who charted the best this year? That's right, the so-called "running quarterback" Jayden Daniels. Klassen does have some reservations about Daniels' willingness to throw over the middle of the field, but two things are true: 1) Daniels is an accurate passer, and 2) he's going to rack up the rushing yards. My rookie quarterback model predicts 43.9 rushing yards per game for Daniels, which is the third-highest expectation in the 97-player sample behind only Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton. Jackson didn't start until Week 11 of his rookie season, but he was the fantasy QB8 the rest of the way. Newton was the QB3 as a rookie. Rounding out the top five in expected rushing yards were Jalen Hurts (QB8 in his first season as the starter) and Vince Young (QB9 as a rookie). See where this is headed?

In his third season, Joshua Palmer finished as the WR67, though he missed several games and posted the 47th-highest per-game average (8.9 half-PPR points per game). He set career-highs in yards per game (58.1), yards per catch (15.3), and yards per route run (1.71, 38th out of 102 eligible receivers). When Matt Harmon charted Palmer’s rookie season and found that he posted above average success rates on five of the 10 routes on Reception Perception route tree, even if his overall numbers weren’t great. Anyway, it’s two years later and Palmer is coming off of a season where he played at a 65-988-3.4 (WR34) pace. Of his 10 games, Mike Williams played in three, and Keenan Allen played in four. Palmer averaged 74 yards in the four games he played with Allen and without Williams, and one of those games was cut short due to injury. In the three games that he played without both Allen and Williams, Palmer posted 113, 47, and 44 yards, a 68-yard average. So without Williams, Palmer played at a 73-1209-2.4 pace. Those are low-end WR2 numbers. With Allen and Williams gone, Palmer has an opportunity to step into the WR1 role. His primary competition appears to be Ladd McConkey, but who knows, maybe Quentin Johnston or D.J. Chark will have something to say about it. My money is on McConkey/Palmer as the WR1/WR2, but not necessarily in that order. Palmer could easily garner more targets than a rookie who wasn’t all that productive in college. The Chargers will very likely be much more run-heavy under HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman, so the passing pie will be smaller for Justin Herbert and his receivers. Still, if Palmer is a regular contributor seeing 6-8 targets per game, he could be a good fantasy asset, especially since he’s being drafted as a low-end WR5.

We know Christian Watson has talent. In the 14 games over the last two seasons when he’s been healthy enough to play 70%+ of the snaps, he has averaged 3.6 catches for 61 yards and 0.79 touchdowns on 6.3 targets per game. Throw in some carries, and he’s averaged 13.6 (half-PPR) fantasy points per game when getting that many snaps. That’s what Nico Collins averaged as last year’s WR13 on a per-game basis. Watson has missed time in each of his first two seasons with hamstring injuries, but an offseason visit to a specialist in Madison revealed that there was an imbalance in the strength of his hamstrings which was causing the injuries. He has worked to cut the asymmetry in half, and continues to work to get the two muscles even closer in strength. If this is able to keep his legs healthy, it could be a boon for fantasy managers who are drafting him as the WR41 off the board. The Packers’ receiving group as a whole is going to be very difficult to project as there is a lot of talent WR1-WR5. Dontayvion Wicks and Bo Melton are arguably the best WR4 and WR5 in the league. Still, when Watson is healthy, the Packers will play him 70%-90% without much hesitation because he can completely take the top off the defense. When we apply his reception, receiving yard and touchdown shares from those 14 games where he played 70%+ of the snaps to the Packers’ expected passing numbers this season, then Watson projects to 947 yards and 11.6 touchdowns, which would make him the fantasy WR8. There’s obviously upside given Watson’s WR4-type ADP, but there are multiple ways (injury, WR-committee) for Watson to miss that expectation as well. I think he’s worth the risk.

In his rookie season, Jayden Reed finished as the fantasy WR26, though his numbers took a big hit in the eight games that Christian Watson played a full complement of snaps. In those eight games, Reed averaged 3.5 catches for 39 yards and 0.38 touchdowns per game, or 9.7 (half-PPR) fantasy points per game. Those are WR4-type numbers and a far cry from the 4.5 catches for 60 yards and 0.63 touchdowns that he averaged in the eight games that Watson missed or was limited. In those games he averaged 13.5 fantasy points per game, which would have been top 15 at his position. His targets dropped from 6.9 to 4.9 per game when Watson was in the fold. These splits underline the general quandary with the Green Bay receiving corps. It is so deep and talented that Jordan Love will spread the ball around when everyone’s healthy. Watson has seen a hamstring specialist this offseason and they have implemented a plan to equalize the strength of his two hamstrings which is supposed to keep him healthy. Fantasy managers who believe Watson is going to miss a lot of time due to injury can target Jayden Reed as a player who will likely post WR2 numbers while Watson is sidelined. Those managers who believe Watson will stay healthy should avoid Reed at his ADP.

Vegas wasn’t the greatest landing spot for Bowers, who has Gardner Minshew at quarterback and is competing with Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Michael Mayer for targets. Lauded as one of the best–if not THE best–tight end prospect ever, Bowers should play ahead of Mayer and the Raiders would be wise to use him early and often. GM Tom Telesco described Bowers as a “hybrid receiver,” while HC Antonio Pierce said that Bowers was “probably the most dynamic player in college football at the tight end position in a long time.” So it sounds like the Raiders know they have a playmaker in Bowers and will scheme him touches.

Brooks is recovering from a "clean" ACL tear (per Ian Rapoport). Once cleared, he should quickly beat out the solid-but-not-spectacular Chuba Hubbard and 2023 free agent disappointment Miles Sanders to earn the RB1 job. His upside is capped by the Carolina offense which needs to take a big step forward if it's going to support a bona fide fantasy RB1. The last six second-round running backs who started at least 11 games as rookies averaged 268 touches for 1,286 yards and 9.2 touchdowns. Brooks is an ideal RB3/RB4 that fantasy managers won’t need until the byes start to hit. He has a lot of late-season upside.

Curtis Samuel is a long-time favorite of Reception Perception’s Matt Harmon, and whenever one of his favorites sees a role or quarterback change, I take notice. Harmon charted Samuel in the 2018-2020 seasons and he finished with a success rate of 75%+ versus man coverage–88th percentile, which is very good–in all three seasons. His 2023 charting revealed a 75.4% success rate versus man, and he posted a career-high 80.0% success rate versus zone. In his last four seasons with 15+ games played, Samuel has crested 613 receiving yards in all four years, and has added an average of 139 yards per year as a runner. The Bills get a versatile weapon to utilize alongside Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, and Dalton Kincaid. Harmon agrees, “...everything about his profile shows that he will make a significant impact for a team that needs him.” Moreover, Samuel is being reunited with OC Joe Brady who squeezed a WR25 finish out of him in 2020 (with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback). Samuel had 118 touches (41 carries) for 1,051 yards and five touchdowns that year. He will be one of my primary late-round targets this season.

Brock Purdy was one of the best draft day values last season, finishing QB6 versus a depressed ADP of QB19 thanks in large part to a torn UCL in his elbow suffered in the 2022 postseason. That season, he was the fantasy QB8 down the stretch after taking over as the 49ers’ starter in Week 13, so his QB11 positional ADP is justified. Assuming Brandon Aiyuk reports, Purdy has one of the best receiving corps in the league with Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and rookie Ricky Pearsall.

Jameson Williams has had a slow start to his career, but that was to be expected since he tore his ACL in the National Championship Game during his final college season. He only played six games as a rookie, catching 1-of-9 targets for 41 yards and a touchdown while adding one carry for 40 yards. (These ridiculous numbers underline both his big-play ability and his inconsistency.) In his second season, after serving a six-game gambling suspension, he caught 24-of-42 targets for 354 yards and two scores while adding three carries for 29 yards and a touchdown. HC Dan Campbell said in February that Williams will “push to be a full-time starter” this season, and during spring practices Williams has been a “man on a mission.” On the plus side, the former No. 12 overall pick has elite speed and with Josh Reynolds moving on, there are snaps and targets up for grabs in a great offense. On the flip side, he’ll at best be the third option in the passing game behind Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, so it seems unlikely that he’ll be a consistent weekly contributor. He might be a “better in best ball” option. Regardless, given his talent and upside, he’s worth a pick in the double-digit rounds.

In his 10th season, and his first with the Cowboys, Brandin Cooks finished the season as the fantasy WR41 thanks in large part to eight receiving touchdowns. His 54 catches and 657 yards were both four-year lows. The good news is that Michael Gallup moved on and the team didn’t really do anything to replace him, so Cooks should be the second or third option behind CeeDee Lamb (and perhaps Jake Ferguson), catching passes from a good quarterback in an efficient offense. The bad news is that Cooks is entering his 11th season and is facing another steep drop off according to Ryan Heath’s excellent Age Curves study. He seems like a good WR4 play, but he has a questionable ceiling at this point in his career.

In his second season, Shaheed increased his catches (28 to 46), his receiving yards (488 to 719), and touchdowns (2 to 5), while adding 723 yards as a returner. He posted a stellar 2.59 yards per route run as a rookie, and followed that up with a solid (if unspectacular) 1.67 yards per route run last season (40th out of 102 eligible receivers). He played roughly 58% of the snaps last season, but that number jumped to 63% in his last six non-injury games. With Michael Thomas out of the way, Shaheed could be a full-time player in 2024, and he should a big part of a more productive and inventive offense under new OC Klint Kubiak.

The Jets are clearly loading up for what they hope will be a Super Bowl run. Mike Williams should serve as a nice complement to Garrett Wilson. He averaged 83 yards per game in three games last year after back-to-back productive seasons in 2021 (76-1146-9) and 2022 (63-895-4). If he can stay healthy, he'll be in the WR3 mix as Aaron Rodgers' No. 2 option in the passing game.

Prior to tearing his ACL, T.J. Hockenson was the fantasy TE2 through Week 15. In 2022, he was the TE2, so if he were fully healthy we’d be discussing him as a top-five option. Unfortunately, per our injury expert Jeff Mueller, Week 1 will mark just seven months and 10 days into his recovery, so he’s a candidate for PUP and could miss half the season. He’s also in danger of a slow return to production and is dealing with a quarterback change. As the TE13 off the board, I’m out.

As a rookie, Jordan Addison finished as the fantasy WR23 thanks in large part to his 10 touchdown catches, though his yardage (911) was third among rookies behind Puka Nacua (1,486) and Rashee Rice (938). He was arrested in early July for suspicion of DUI, which could lead to a suspension. He pled guilty to misdemeanor (140 MPH) speeding charges last summer. In addition to a possible (2-4 game?) suspension, Addison is also dealing with a quarterback change, as some combination of Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy will try to replace Kirk Cousins’ 291 yards and 2.3 touchdowns per game. Addison’s production took a nosedive after Cousins was done for the year. He averaged 4.5-60-0.88 with Cousins and just 3.8-48-0.28 with Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens, and Jaren Hall. That’s a 36% drop in fantasy production.

After a very encouraging QB8 finish in his second season, Lawrence’s numbers regressed a bit in 2023, resulting in a QB14 fantasy finish (and the 19th-highest per game average). As the 17th quarterback off the board, Lawrence is an intriguing late-round option since he has already proven that he has top-10 upside. He lost Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones, but both Christian Kirk and Evan Engram are back, and they are joined by talented rookie Brian Thomas Jr. and free agent Gabe Davis. He also adds about 21 yards rushing per game, giving him a solid fantasy floor. Jaguars receivers had the seventh-most drops, so there was still some meat on the bone for Lawrence and Co.

Tua Tagovailoa overcame lingering concussion concerns to finish as the fantasy QB10 in 2023. He posted the 11th-highest per-game average in 2022, so his fringe-QB1 ADP seems completely justified. He has one of the best receiving corps in the league, featuring Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Odell Beckham, Malik Washington, and Jonnu Smith–and one of the best play-callers in the league in head coach Mike McDaniel. Another QB1 season looks like a good bet.

In his second season, Doubs played all 17 games and finished as the WR35. He’s going off the board WR53, presumably because drafters believe that his role will be scaled back if/when Christian Watson stays healthy. Doubs has been a steady producer no matter who’s in the lineup. He actually averaged more targets, yards, and fantasy points in the nine games that Watson played last season. In two playoff games, Jordan Love targeted Doubs a team-high 12 times, completing 10 for 234 yards and a touchdown. No other Packer saw more than nine targets, and that was tight end Tucker Kraft.

Jonnu Smith finished as the TE19 in half-PPR formats and had the 15th-most receiving yards--a career-high 582--at his position. He's a terrific athlete and could shine in an every-down role, especially with Mike McDaniel scheming the offense. However, McDaniel only garnered 414 total yards from Durham Smythe/Julian Hill in 2023 and just 491 from Mike Gesicki/Durham Smythe the year before, so he's not exactly known as a TE-whisperer. McDaniel said in a press conference that “some people think that just ‘whatever it was, it will always be,’” indicating that Smith may have a larger role than people think. Smith will be in the mix as a fantasy TE2 and, given his athleticism, has upside if he grows into a 5-6 target role.

Jared Goff finished as the fantasy QB8 last year and the key pieces are still in place. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs all return, and the up-and-coming Jameson Williams will likely replace the departed Josh Reynolds. Ben Johnson returns as offensive coordinator. I don’t love the idea of having Goff as my only quarterback since his home/away splits are so extreme. Over the past two seasons, Goff has averaged 21.3 fantasy points per game at home versus just 13.9 per game on the road. This is similar to what we saw with Drew Brees late in his career in New Orleans. As the QB12 off the board, Goff can be easily paired with another quarterback to form a potent committee with the intention of only starting Goff at home or in his very favorable road matchups.

Chase Brown has been trending up this offseason and is a good back to target in the double-digit rounds. The Bengals let Joe Mixon walk but signed Zack Moss to a two-year deal worth $8 million. My initial thought was that Moss would simply step into Mixon’s workload since he handled a boatload of touches in Indianapolis while Jonathan Taylor was out and the Bengals gave him a sizable contract. But there has been a steady drumbeat of positive news for Brown and there is even some discussion about Brown being the RB1a to Moss as the RB1b. While he was electric as a receiver, Brown stunk as a runner last season–his PFF rush grade was 113th out of 129 backs last season, while Moss was a solid 53rd. (Brown did rush for 1,643 yards in his final season at Illinois.) Moss is also listed as the team’s RB1 on their depth chart, though Brown has been seeing more reps with the starters in recent practices.

Caleb Williams will start immediately and enjoy a receiving corps that features D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, and D'Andre Swift. Pending good health, having Moore/Allen/Odunze as his top three options gives Williams a leg up on most rookie quarterbacks. Derrick Klassen of Reception Perception says the Patrick Mahomes comparisons are a stretch, but names Kyler Murray as a reasonable comp. Williams isn't likely to run as much as Murray, however. My rookie quarterback model estimates 13.6 yards per game when it uses Williams' final season numbers, but when his 2022 college stats are plugged in, the model returns 19.3 rush yards per game. Obviously, the more rush yards the better for his fantasy floor, but fantasy managers shouldn't expect Murray-type numbers from Williams. The quarterback position is fairly deep heading into 2024, but if Williams acclimates quickly, it wouldn't be shocking if he posted top-12 numbers.

Marquise Brown enters his age-27 season on the heels of a disappointing 51-574-4, 101-target season, a far cry from the 91-1008-6 that he posted in his final season with the Ravens in 2021. Brown is a sizable upgrade over the recently-released Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Despite a second consecutive Super Bowl win, the Chiefs' passing game had a down year, so there is certainly room for the passing pie to grow, making room for Brown, Rice's ascension, rookie Xavier Worthy, and another quality year from Travis Kelce.

Dalton Schultz proved to be a good value at the always dicey tight end position in 2023. He was drafted as the TE15 but turned in TE10 numbers despite missing a couple of games. C.J. Stroud was obviously much better than expected, which helped, but Schultz did not appear to be a top-two (or even top-three?) option when Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Noah Brown were all healthy. Despite finishing as a top-10 tight end, he saw four or fewer targets in six of his 15 games played. The Texans saw enough to value Schultz at $36 million over three years. He’s a baseline option at the position heading into 2024.

Keon Coleman didn’t chart particularly well at Reception Perception, but the Bills used valuable draft capital to nab him with the first pick in the second round and he’s joining a team that desperately needs playmakers at receiver. It’s worth noting that as a sophomore at Michigan State, he outproduced Jayden Reed in Reed’s senior season.

Corum rushed for 2,708 yards in his final two seasons at Michigan and posted pretty good numbers at the Combine. However, Kyren Williams owned the third-highest rushing grade last season, so the rookie may have a tough time getting touches as long as Williams remains healthy. He'll be a premier attrition RB2 in 2024 fantasy drafts.

Michael Wilson will likely be the third option behind Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride, but there was a lot to like about his rookie season. He caught 38 passes for 565 yards and three scores, and played at a 740-yard pace. His yards per route run (1.36) were middle of the pack among the receivers in their first three seasons with at least 35 targets. If he can stay healthy, he should be able to produce 700+ yards and 4-6 touchdowns alongside Harrison and McBride.

Of all the tight ends, Taysom Hill’s fantasy value depends most on the scoring format. In standard scoring, he was the TE7 last year. In half-PPR and full-PPR, he was the TE10 and TE15, respectively, so in full PPR formats, he’s more of a TE2-type, but he’s quite startable in standard and half-PPR formats. With a new offensive coordinator (Klint Kubiak) in town, Hill’s role is very much up in the air, but HC Dennis Allen said that it would be “very similar to what we’ve seen in the past.” Hill said that he had a “positive” conversation with Kubiak about his new role, so he seems like he’ll be content with his usage. ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported in early August that the Saints are “leaning into the Taysom Hill experience.” Of course, Hill is not even TE-eligible in some leagues, but that’s where we rank/project him since that’s the only position where he’s startable.

Justin Herbert finished QB16 last season, but had the 13th-highest per-game average. He was the QB12 in 2022 with the 17th-highest per-game average. So after a QB9 and a QB2 finish in his first two seasons, he has settled into high-end QB2-type territory (#13-#18) in the last two seasons. He has lost his top four options–Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Gerald Everett–so his key returners are Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston. The Chargers did draft Ladd McConkey and they signed Hayden Hurst and Will Dissly, but obviously the team lost a lot of receiving talent. New HC Jim Harbaugh has also signaled that his offense is going to be run-heavy, so it’s safe to say that things aren’t exactly lining up for Herbert to have a big fantasy season.

I’ve said it before–Nick Chubb is one of the best pure runners in the league. He had two tears–one to his MCL and another to his ACL–in Week 2 of last season and needed two separate surgeries to repair them. Our injury expert, Jeff Mueller, wrote, “What likely is not being reported is that there is a high probability that there was also capsular damage and secondary stabilizer damage, similar to what both JK Dobbins and Javonte Williams dealt with.” Mueller believes that the Browns are protecting themselves (by signing D’Onta Foreman) in case the 28-year-old is “never the same.” Chubb is currently the RB35 off the board and is going six spots ahead of his backfield partner, Jerome Ford. The good news is that Chubb released a video of him squatting an enormous amount of weight. He’ll need to graduate to planting and cutting, but clearly the leg strength is back. In 2022, he finished as the fantasy RB6 after a 13-game RB10 finish the year before, so Chubb is a worthwhile gamble as an RB3 or RB4 in the ninth round due to his potential value in the back half of the season. If he’s practicing in camp, look out.

Trevor Lawrence did own the eighth-highest adjusted completion percentage on deep balls (per PFF) last season, so in theory this will be a good match for Gabe Davis's deep-ball ability. Davis has a propensity to find the end zone, but his inconsistency has made him a frustrating fantasy start. (I said out loud in the middle of last season that I would only draft Davis in best ball formats moving forward.) He’ll be the third option behind Christian Kirk and rookie Brian Thomas Jr.

With the ever-effective James Conner in the fold, this is not the ideal landing spot for the second running back off the board, though the Cardinals could be planning to move on from the 29-year-old sooner rather than later. (Conner is in the final year of his contract.) Benson certainly has the talent and versatility to win the RB1 job and if he does, he'll be in the RB2 mix playing alongside Kyler Murray. He’ll be one of the top attrition RB2 picks this season.

Pat Freiermuth missed five games, but was the TE28 on a per-game basis. He was the TE7 the year before with the 10th-highest per-game average. His targets dropped from 6.4 per game to 4.1 last year. The Steelers are going to be run-heavy under new OC Arthur Smith, but Smith did feed Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith last year to the tune of 103 catches for 1,249 yards, and six touchdowns. Barring a trade for Brandon Aiyuk, Freiermuth might serve as the de facto WR2 for the Steelers.

With Austin Ekeler vacating 230 touches, the Chargers had a big need at running back and Gus Edwards can run the ball. Prior to 2023, Edwards had never averaged less than 5.0 yards per carry, though he posted a career-low 4.1 yards per carry last season. Jim Harbaugh likes to run the ball, so Edwards could be the centerpiece of the rushing attack or perhaps part of a 1-2 punch in the backfield with either J.K. Dobbins or rookie Kimani Vidal. Entering his age-29 season, he should have a couple of productive seasons left.

Tyler Conklin was the TE18 last season, which wasn’t a bad finish given the Jets’ carousel of quarterbacks. With Aaron Rodgers back in the fold, the quality of Conklin’s targets should improve even if he’s likely to take a backseat to Mike Williams in terms of quantity of targets. He’s having a good camp and is “poised for a big season” per Connor Hughes.

Through the first 11 weeks, prior to his abdomen injury, Luke Musgrave was the fantasy TE21. He returned late in the season and posted the second-most receptions (6) and the second-most receiving yards (66) in the Packers’ two playoff games. Tucker Kraft played very well in Musgrave’s absence, but Musgrave has the inside track to start this season as Kraft missed some time recovering from a pectoral injury.

In the first four weeks of the 2023 season, Hunter Henry cleared 50 yards three times and scored two touchdowns, though he didn’t catch another touchdown until Week 9 and didn’t clear 50 yards again until Week 15. He finished as the TE15, catching 42 passes for 419 yards and six scores in 14 games. Re-signing with the Patriots probably wasn’t a best-case scenario for his fantasy value, though he should remain the team’s starter and could work his way into TE2 territory if the Patriots are able to get better quarterback play out of Drake Maye and/or Jacoby Brissett.

The former first-round pick has totaled a serviceable 121 catches for 1,730 yards and eight touchdowns in 31 games played over the last two seasons, finishing WR54 last season and a career-high WR26 the year before. He'll get a fresh start in Cleveland with Deshaun Watson (and possibly Joe Flacco) at quarterback, but will certainly be behind Amari Cooper in the team's pecking order at receiver. The Browns also have a stud tight end, David Njoku, so Jeudy should be third in expected targets. Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman will also be in the mix.

Kirk Cousins is coming off a torn Achilles but should be ready to go Week 1 for the Falcons. He will certainly breathe life into a suspect Atlanta passing game hamstrung by Desmond Ridder and Arthur Smith's run-heavy tendencies. The franchise hired Zac Robinson away from the Rams to run the offense. He was the pass game coordinator/quarterbacks coach for the last two years. With Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts to throw to, Cousins is set up for success and should be able to continue his low-end QB1 ways.

Matthew Stafford finished 2023 as the QB15 after an elbow injury knocked him out for the back half of 2022. He was the fantasy QB23 prior to his injury. With the emergence of Puka Nacua, the offense is not so Cooper Kupp-centric. Stafford is 36 years old, offers almost nothing as a runner, and is more of an injury risk now, but he should provide solid QB2-type numbers when available.

Aaron Rodgers was the QB12 off the board last season and tore his Achilles tendon early in his first game with the Jets. The Jets added Mike Williams and rookie Malachi Corley, and the offensive line should make a quick turnaround after adding Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses and rookie Olu Fashanu. As the 19th quarterback off the board in early drafts, Rodgers is a sneaky QB2-type pick in the late rounds given his surrounding weapons (ahem–Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, anyone?) and an improved offensive line. Don’t be surprised if Rodgers posts a top-12 finish.

Geno Smith followed up a surprise QB6 finish in 2022 with a disappointing QB19 finish last year, despite the addition of Jaxon Smith-Njigba. One reason for optimism heading into this season is the new offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb, who previously ran the offense for the University of Washington. The Huskies were second in passing yards last season after leading the nation in the same category the year before. Grubb’s offense threw the ball at a high rate and played fast, so Smith could benefit if that pace and efficiency translate to the NFL.

Ja’Lynn Polk has second-round draft capital and joins arguably the worst receiver room in the league, so a big role for the rookie is possible. He charted very well at Reception Perception and Matt Harmon says there is “so much to like” about Polk’s game. He’s definitely a player I’m monitoring this summer.

The second-year tight end finished TE19 and had the 24th-highest per game average at his position. The best thing about Otton thus far has been his availability. He has played 33 of a possible 34 games and was on the field for 96% of the snaps in 2023. He’s not terribly athletic, but his playing time and consistent role in the offense make him a solid TE2-type.

Shockingly, Baker Mayfield finished as the QB9 in his first season with the Bucs, throwing for 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns in his best season in the NFL. He showed a particularly nice rapport with Mike Evans, who racked up 1,255 yards and 13 touchdowns in his best season since 2018. While Evans finished WR4, Chris Godwin (82-1024-2) finished a disappointing WR33. With both Mayfield and Evans back in the fold, the Bucs' passing game appears to be in good hands heading into the 2024 season, though the loss of offensive coordinator Dave Canales (to Carolina) is worrisome.

In his second season, Darnell Mooney caught 81 passes for 1,055 yards and four touchdowns and added 32 yards and a touchdown as a runner. He then posted 40-493-2 in 2022–Justin Fields' first season as the starter–and 31-414-1 in 2023--taking a backseat to D.J. Moore. He's likely to operate as the Falcons' WR2 but could be the third or fourth option in the passing game behind Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson. He should be in the WR5 mix as he tries to get his career back on track.

It’s safe to say that the Deshaun Watson-to-Cleveland move hasn’t gone as well as either party would like. In 11 starts for the Browns (with 90%+ of the snaps), he has averaged 201 yards (6.58 yards per attempt), 1.27 touchdowns and 0.73 interceptions, with 29 yards and 0.18 touchdowns as a runner. That works out to about 15.3 fantasy points per game, which is midrange QB2 production thanks to those rushing numbers. The Browns added Jerry Jeudy to the mix, so Watson has a solid set of receivers to throw to.

Juwan Johnson was the TE26 last season, but was banged up and was the TE19 on a per-game basis. He finished as the TE8 in 2022. He posted 40 yards and/or a touchdown in his final four games last season, and averaged 6.0 targets in that span.

Reception Perception’s Matt Harmon was surprised by Mitchell's tape, and compared him to George Pickens with a possible DeAndre Hopkins ceiling. Mitchell will compete with Josh Downs and Alec Pierce for targets opposite Michael Pittman. (Downs was great last year, per Harmon, by the way.) The Colts are unlikely to be too pass-heavy, so it's unclear whether they'll be able to support two or three fantasy receivers. Given Mitchell's speed, he could thrive as a deep-ball threat for Anthony Richardson, who throws a nice long ball. I'm not optimistic that Mitchell is going to turn into a consistent fantasy performer as long as Pittman remains healthy.

Traditionally, tight ends take three years to fully get up to speed in the NFL. After playing only 12 games in his first two seasons, Greg Dulcich is finally healthy and is having a good camp, impressing the Denver coaching staff with his speed. Remember, he averaged 41.1 yards in 10 games as a rookie, so he was playing at a 699-yard pace in his first season. The Broncos need weapons in the passing game, so if he can finally stay healthy, he should surprise.

Dontayvion Wicks is probably the best real-world WR4 in the league. (Bo Melton is probably the best WR5 as well.) His snaps will be somewhat limited unless there’s an injury to Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, and/or Romeo Doubs, so he’s not a player that we can start with any confidence unless one or more of those players is sidelined. But in best ball formats he’s an intriguing late-round pick since he will poke his head up from time to time with a big game. Talent-wise, he’s capable of playing at a fantasy WR2 level for a stretch if he gets the requisite snaps.

Last season, Antonio Gibson rushed for a career-low 265 yards while gaining a career-high 389 yards as a receiver. He will probably serve as the primary backup to Rhamondre Stevenson. Still in his prime, his 1,331-yard season (in 2021) seems like a long time ago.

Will Levis took over as the Titans’ starter in Week 8. In the next eight games, he averaged 224 yards and 1.0 touchdown, with 7.1 rushing yards and 0.13 rushing touchdowns per game. He was the QB15 in that span but owned the 29th-highest per game average. On the bright side, his 7.4 yards per attempt was a solid mark and Derrick Klassen of Reception Perception wrote that Levis brings “a degree of arm talent and pocket toughness that isn’t easy to come by.” He doesn’t bring much as a rusher, but with Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd joining DeAndre Hopkins, Levis has an experienced and talented receiving corps. It wouldn’t be surprising if he were to work his way into the weekly streaming conversation as the season wears on.

With Kirk Cousins leaving for Atlanta, the Vikings have a hole at quarterback and Sam Darnold is not a bad stopgap option as the franchise waits for J.J. McCarthy to be ready. In six starts for the Panthers in 2022, Darnold averaged a healthy 8.2 yards per attempt and threw seven touchdowns against three picks. He also averaged 18 yards rushing. In his lone 2023 start for the 49ers, he completed 16 of 26 passes for 189 yards and a touchdown and added 19 yards and a touchdown as a runner. If he enters the season as the starter, which seems likely, he'll have good upside as a QB3-type who has great weapons and can run.

The Broncos traded Jerry Jeudy away, so the Broncos' receiving room is a little thin after Courtland Sutton, though they did add promising fourth-rounder Troy Franklin and seventh-rounder Devaughn Vale in the Draft. Nix has some rushing ability; my rookie quarterback model predicts 15.4 rush yards per game in his rookie season. Nix will have to beat out Zach Wilson and Jarrett Stidham to win the job, and if he does, he'll be in the QB3 mix in superflex formats.

Some may want to write off Bryce Young after a poor rookie season, but HC Dave Canales might be a quarterback-whisperer. He was instrumental in the career resurgences of both Geno Smith in Seattle and Baker Mayfield last year in Tampa. Young’s rookie season probably couldn’t have gone much worse. He threw for a paltry 2,877 yards, 11 touchdowns, 10 interceptions and posted an anemic 5.5 yards per attempt. But in fairness, his top weapons were 33-year-old Adam Thielen (137 targets), rookie Jonathan Mingo (85), and D.J. Chark (27). The Panthers didn’t exactly set the rookie up for success, but with the addition of Canales and the incredible route-running of Diontae Johnson, things are looking up.

The Broncos will be paying the vast majority of Russell Wilson's salary, so this is a low-risk signing for the Steelers. Wilson threw for 3,070 yards and 26 touchdowns against only eight interceptions in 15 games last season. George Pickens should benefit from Wilson's deep ball, though with new OC Arthur Smith designing the offense, it's likely to be a run-heavy attack. Wilson is an intriguing QB2/QB3 type but he’ll have to hold off Justin Fields.

The Panthers traded for the "always open" Diontae Johnson, so Legette won't have the pressure of being the team's WR1 as a rookie. Adam Thielen, Jonathan Mingo, etc. don't offer insurmountable competition for a player with Legette's speed, production, and first-round draft capital. If Bryce Young and the offense can take a big step forward, and Legette is locked in as the team's WR2, he could make a fantasy impact in year one, though with Thielen still around, that’s no sure thing.

Kendrick Bourne has delivered solid-to-good fantasy production whenever he's seen starter's snaps. He tore his ACL in Week 8. At that point, he was the fantasy WR28. In the three games where he saw at least 90% of the snaps, he posted 6-62-2, 10-89, and 6-63-1. The Patriots have addressed their league-worst receiver room by drafting Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker, but Bourne could operate as a decent WR2 or a good WR3 once healthy. Fantasy-wise, he'll be in the WR5/WR6 mix again.

Diontae Johnson has moved on, so there are snaps and targets available in the Steelers' WR room. Roman Wilson didn't fare particularly well in Harmon's charting, finishing last among the charted rookies in overall Success Rate. Calvin Austin III is looking for a bigger role, and the Steelers have added Marquez Callaway, Quez Watkins and Van Jefferson this offseason. The WR2 job is up for grabs--can Wilson win it?

With Tee Higgins in the fold, Jermaine Burton will be the No. 3 option for Joe Burrow. He has off-field/locker-room concerns, but talent-wise, Matt Harmon is a big fan: "Jermaine Burton has the type of Reception Perception profile I would bet on five times over." Again, there are character questions, but the upside is obvious. With Tyler Boyd out of the way, Burton should see snaps in three-receiver sets at a minimum.

Alexander Mattison was anointed the Vikings' starter heading into the 2023 season and it didn't go so great. Through the first 11 weeks, prior to injury and losing snaps to Ty Chandler, he was the fantasy RB28. He was the RB21 in terms of ADP, so it wasn't a disaster, but he failed to produce at the same level as he did in previous opportunities as the starter. He'll likely serve as Zamir White's direct backup in Las Vegas.

Maye has long-term upside, but from a redraft standpoint, it's a bit tough to get excited about his 2024 prospects given the makeup of the Patriots' receiver room, though they did add a couple of weapons in the Draft. Second-rounder Ja'Lynn Polk and fourth-rounder Javon Baker--two receivers who fared well in Matt Harmon's charting at Reception Perception--join the top returning pass-catchers: Demario Douglas, Hunter Henry, and Kendrick Bourne. Maye does have some rushing ability and my rookie quarterback model predicts a healthy 23.0 rush yards per game. Given the solid depth at the position, Maye will be in the QB3 mix heading into the '24 draft season, though he could be a starter in superflex formats if his receiver room comes together. First things first–he needs to beat out the very capable Jacoby Brissett for the starting job.

K.J. Osborn turned in 48 catches for 540 yards and three touchdowns operating as the WR3 for the Vikings. In both 2021 (655 yards) and 2022 (650 yards), Osborn cleared 650 yards, though he saw the most playing time (78% snap share) last season. In the 28 games where he's played at least 75% of the snaps, he has averaged 3.8 catches for 49.4 yards and 0.43 touchdowns on 6.0 targets per game. That works out to 9.4 fantasy points per game (half-PPR), or fantasy WR4-type numbers. That looks like his absolute ceiling in the Patriots’ passing attack.

The Jets have their all-level stud in Garrett Wilson and signed downfield threat Mike Williams in free agency. Corley could serve as a gadget threat out of the slot, though he'll have to beat out Aaron Rodgers-favorite Allen Lazard and the promising Xavier Gipson to get on the field. I don't think the odds are good that he'll be a fantasy factor as a rookie, but stranger things have happened.

Pearsall fared very well over at Reception Perception, so I was really hoping for a better short-term landing spot. His outlook would improve drastically if the 49ers trade Brandon Aiyuk, who seems disgruntled at this point in the offseason. As it stands, he'd be the fourth option in a run-heavy attack and probably wouldn't be much of a fantasy factor in his rookie season. If one of Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel moves on, Pearsall will be sitting in a fantastic spot as a primary target in Kyle Shanahan's efficient offense.