Analyzing a 12-Team Salary Cap Mock Draft (June)

Jun 29, 2023

Jeff Bottari/Getty Images

Doing mock salary cap drafts is not always as helpful as we want them to be. Often, we get into one and find that several teams are just there to bid for three top players and then quit, or managers in mocks spend more for top talent than would normally happen in a real league being played out during the year. So, we decided to get 12 strong salary cap managers together and fight it out until the bitter end to give readers the best representation of how a real salary cap draft plays out. We will check in for another mock in July, and a final one in August to see how things are developing as the summer goes along.

The format of our draft was meant to resemble the most typical fantasy leagues out there despite the growing popularity of other ways to play the game.

We went with:

1 QB/2 RB/3 WR/1 TE/1 K/1 DEF/1 FLX
8 Bench Spots
PPR
$200 Salary Cap

(Note: The final rosters and prices are listed at the bottom of the article)

Overall Observations

Before getting too deep into the weeds of how this draft went, several things jumped out at me as being good lessons for anyone trying to get better at salary cap drafting.

Go Against the Grain

The general idea of doing the opposite of what your league is doing is a bit of an oversimplified and somewhat overused strategy. But this draft demonstrated that it is, nevertheless, reasonable advice in most salary cap drafts. Watching early pricing on the players at the beginning of the draft should guide you toward how you should be attacking things. If things are wild and multiple players are going for upwards of $50 to $60 then you should be staying patient and waiting for prices to drop. Conversely, as in this room, if managers are not willing to spend as the elite players start flying off the board in the early rounds, you should be acting quickly to lock up some top-level players below market value.

This draft featured exclusively salary cap veterans and analysts from around the industry. That makes for a tough, disciplined group of bidders that will refuse to go too high for a player and also refuse to let you get too good of a deal. When I recognized the trend early on I had to abandon my strategy of staying away from the top players and spend some money. I ended up with Austin Ekeler ($44) and Cooper Kupp ($49) when I hadn’t intended to chase the top players in their position groups. But hey, that’s salary cap drafting and it’s always important to be mindful of the flow of the draft so you can adapt as you go.

Be Ready to Spend at Wide Receiver

The trend developing in the fantasy football community in the last couple of years is in full swing. Wide receiver points used to be cheaper in salary cap drafts, but the roles seem to have completed their reversal in 2023. The top wide receivers (Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson) went for $57 and $56, while their counterparts at running back went for upper $40s.

Additionally, the wide receiver prices held steadier for the duration of the draft than the running backs. For example, at Pick 56 CeeDee Lamb went off the board for $40 while running backs drafted in the same part of the draft like Breece Hall ($24), Najee Harris ($24), and Tony Pollard ($26) went for considerably less money. While the comparison of Lamb to those three running backs isn’t quite 1-to-1, it is illustrative, nonetheless. Hall averaged over 16 PPR points per game last season and Lamb was approximately 1.4 points better per game. That $16 price gap is massive for that small of a bump.

This wasn’t isolated to just this example as the wide receiver prices stayed stronger, for longer, than running back prices. It looks like the best strategy for both positions in 2023 is to make sure you’re spending at the wide receiver position and then count on some running back deals later on to score some production cheaper than you’d probably believe. Guys like A.J. Dillon ($10), David Montgomery ($12), and Joe Mixon ($15) are a few examples of guys that could see 200+ touches and cost far less than their wide receiver counterparts who were priced consistently $3-$15 higher. Be warned, however, that you need upside somewhere else on your roster to offset the unexciting production from mid-tier running backs should you go that route.

People Want Quarterbacks

The trend to spend as little as possible on quarterbacks hung on for a long time, especially in salary cap draft rooms. But 2022 may have been a bellwether. Only four quarterbacks threw for 30+ touchdowns, and guys who created with their feet were more valuable than ever. That could be a statistical blip, but it has created a certain urgency in fantasy drafters this summer to make sure to snag an elite quarterback in their drafts. This thought should only intensify as the summer wears on and more casual drafters enter draft rooms.

In prior seasons it would be unusual to see a quarterback break the $30 barrier, but this draft saw three guys do it: Josh Allen ($33), Patrick Mahomes ($31), and Jalen Hurts ($30). Further, Justin Fields hit $26, and guys like Lamar Jackson ($22), Joe Burrow ($16), and Justin Herbert ($17) went for less than market value, but in a smart, tough draft like this one, those are higher prices than typical for a room full of cautious drafters.

If you’re interested in a top quarterback this year, then be cognizant of needing to pay more than in previous years for the top six to eight guys. Prices did fall precipitously after that, but quarterbacks are commanding a larger share of the salary cap dollars this year.

The Flow of the Draft

The fun part of salary cap drafting is that no two drafts are ever alike. Player prices vary wildly between drafts based on several different factors like manager experience, order of nomination, scoring settings, and the aggressiveness of the room. As a result, breaking down a salary cap draft is harder to wrap up in a neat little package because of how the myriad of factors change as the draft unfolds. But let me attempt to capture it.

Early Stages

Things started somewhat slow. Plenty of top players came up for bid, but managers in the room were not going to blow their caps by overspending. Christian McCaffrey went for $48 on the first nomination, and then as the top players continued to go on the block the $50 barrier seemed to be important for the league. Only two guys went over $50 (Chase and Jefferson), and otherwise, even the best talent on the board struggled to get over $40. Players like Saquon Barkley ($42), Nick Chubb ($47), and A.J. Brown ($42) all demonstrated an unwillingness to crack $50, and even guys like Stefon Diggs ($34) and Davante Adams ($35) struggled to come close to where they should be priced. Diggs and Adams were picks 10 and 16 respectively, so as you can see, caution was the early attitude in the room.

Middle Stages

Prices didn’t exactly get out of control in the middle stages as these managers were too experienced to overpay much, but the prices were higher than they should have been in a lot of cases and stayed consistently stronger as we moved down through the tiers. Guys like Terry McLaurin ($24 at Pick 67) and DeVonta Smith ($30 at Pick 70) showed that the early caution in the room was going to make finding deals much harder as the draft went on. There were too many dollars chasing the impact players as Rounds 6 to 10 unfolded. At Pick 98 Brandon Aiyuk went for $21, and all the way down at Pick 120, Mike Evans was still going for $15. That is deep into the draft for sustained prices at that level, but again, when managers save their money early the middle class of players sees a bloated price structure.

Late Stages

Due to the sustained pricing in the middle stages of the draft, the end stage came fast. Between Pick 120 (Evans, noted above) and Pick 144 just two rounds later the prices had tanked to almost all sub-$5 players. Finding players for $1 wasn’t easy, but nobody had the cap left to bid more than a few bucks before dropping out. This time is when it’s hugely important to have nominations left to burn to score the guys you want. This room did that quite well and did it with the complicating factor that two managers had a lot of money left to pick off the top players remaining at each position. That isn’t an unusual occurrence, but what did stand out to me was that no matter how good the managers in the room were, the pricing inequity in the middle to late stages was all set up by the lack of spending early. The entire flow of the draft came out of the opening 24 picks. That is not something to underestimate as you head into your salary cap draft rooms.

The Managers Have Spoken

After the draft, I asked the managers a few questions about what players they thought were good values or poor values, and what teams (other than their own) they thought ended up with the best final roster. Here is who they voted for.

Best Values – Manager’s Choices

Best Values – Author’s Choices

Worst Values – Manager’s Choices

Worst Values – Author’s Choices

The Contenders

The final task for the managers after the draft was to vote on who they thought came out of the draft with the best teams. As noted already, this veteran room of savvy salary cap drafters spread the talent out and 10 of the 12 teams got votes from their fellow drafters as being top contenders!

Although I’m sure there was some healthy bias in the voting due to me being the person reading the responses, I received the most votes, and then Team 3, Team 5, Team 8, and Team 10 all received multiple votes as well.

Some comments from the drafters:

“I am going to plant my flag on Team 3. He has a solid piece or pieces at every position. Great value at RB for only $34, which left him plenty of room to have an elite WR corps with a solid Flex.”

“My favorite of those is Drew’s team. The running back group is strong, with Austin Ekeler, Najee Harris, and Cam Akers forming the best running back trio in the league. There is depth at wide receiver as well. I’m not very high on Deshaun Watson but he certainly has the potential to hit, and if he falters Daniel Jones provides more-than-adequate depth.”

“Team 8 has the best combination of starting lineup and depth.”

“Team 3 is my favorite as he built a very balanced team with the hookup of Diggs and Allen. If Jahmyr Gibbs is as good as people think this team will be extremely tough to deal with.”

“I would say that Team 3 reigns supreme. Excellent depth behind the starting lineup is what brought this team across the finish line for me.”

“Team 5 has elite players at every skill position and will dominate if Richardson performs.”

“Team 10 took big swings on some high-upside players, and will only need a few to hit to be a contender.”

Final Thoughts

A salary cap room that is full of drafters who know the format well is a hard place to draft, but paying attention to the trends in the room can help you have success. The flow of every salary cap draft is different, so it requires a mixture of aggressiveness and patience to pull off a top-tier draft.

Preparing for your drafts this summer is going to provide a challenge that we haven’t had in recent years. Quarterbacks are expensive. Wide receivers are even more so. Depressed prices at running back are attractive but often come with limitations on their upside. It may seem like a smart idea to run with guys like David Montgomery or A.J. Dillon because they’re cheap and will touch the ball a lot. But, be careful not to outsmart yourself in 10- or 12-team leagues as those types of players, while cheap in raw dollars needed to land them in your draft, often lack the upside of the wide receivers being drafted near the same price point.

Check back in July and we will see what trends are becoming clear, how prices are evolving, and what the next mock draft will show us to help us prepare for the real thing.

Team 1
POSITION	PLAYER	PRICE ($)
QB	Joe Burrow	16
QB	Matthew Stafford	1
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	31
RB	Samaje Perine	15
RB	James Cook	10
RB	Ty Montgomery	1
RB	Cordarrelle Patterson	1
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	38
WR	Keenan Allen	22
WR	Drake London	18
WR	Hunter Renfrow	1
WR	Tim Patrick	1
TE	Travis Kelce	40
TE	Hunter Henry	1
K	Jake Moody	1
K	Daniel Carlson	1
DEF	New York Jets	1
DEF	Denver Broncos	1

Team 2
POSITION	PLAYER	PRICE ($)
QB	Patrick Mahomes	31
QB	Russell Wilson	5
RB	Dameon Pierce	20
RB	Isiah Pacheco	17
RB	James Conner	16
RB	Tank Bigsby	1
RB	Tyjae Spears	1
RB	Ronald Jones	1
WR	Justin Jefferson	56
WR	Calvin Ridley	20
WR	Jahan Dotson	9
WR	Allen Lazard	4
WR	Tyler Boyd	2
WR	Rashid Shaheed	1
TE	T.J. Hockenson	12
TE	Gerald Everett	1
K	Brandon McManus	2
DEF	Los Angeles Chargers	1

Team 3
POSITION	PLAYER	PRICE ($)
QB	Josh Allen	33
QB	Geno Smith	2
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	23
RB	J.K. Dobbins	18
RB	Alexander Mattison	16
RB	JaMycal Hasty	3
RB	Jerick McKinnon	3
RB	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	1
WR	Stefon Diggs	34
WR	Amari Cooper	26
WR	Chris Godwin	12
WR	Zay Flowers	6
WR	Donovan Peoples-Jones	3
WR	Van Jefferson	2
WR	John Metchie	1
TE	Pat Freiermuth	9
K	Jason Myers	1
DEF	Green Bay Packers	1

Author's Team
POSITION	PLAYER	PRICE ($)
QB	Deshaun Watson	7
QB	Daniel Jones	2
RB	Austin Ekeler	44
RB	Najee Harris	24
RB	Cam Akers	13
RB	Devin Singletary	1
RB	Chase Edmonds	1
WR	Cooper Kupp	49
WR	Tyler Lockett	16
WR	Christian Kirk	16
WR	Skyy Moore	5
WR	Nico Collins	4
WR	Michael Gallup	3
WR	Michael Thomas	2
WR	Chase Claypool	1
TE	Dallas Goedert	10
K	Tyler Bass	1
DEF	Buffalo Bills	1

Team 5
POSITION	PLAYER	PRICE ($)
QB	Kirk Cousins	3
QB	Anthony Richardson	3
RB	Saquon Barkley	42
RB	Derrick Henry	29
RB	Antonio Gibson	11
RB	Dalvin Cook	10
RB	Alvin Kamara	2
WR	A.J. Brown	42
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	14
WR	Rashod Bateman	5
WR	Kadarius Toney	4
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	2
WR	Alec Pierce	1
WR	Puka Nacua	1
TE	Mark Andrews	23
TE	Dawson Knox	2
K	Evan McPherson	1
DEF	New England Patriots	5

Team 6
POSITION	PLAYER	PRICE ($)
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	6
QB	Jared Goff	1
RB	Nick Chubb	47
RB	Javonte Williams	15
RB	Rachaad White	14
RB	David Montgomery	12
RB	Kenneth Gainwell	4
RB	Gus Edwards	2
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	57
WR	Brandon Aiyuk	21
WR	Mike Williams	10
WR	Elijah Moore	4
WR	Jakobi Meyers	1
WR	Rashee Rice	1
WR	Romeo Doubs	1
TE	Dalton Kincaid	1
K	Matt Gay	1
DEF	Dallas Cowboys	1

Team 7
POSITION	PLAYER	PRICE ($)
QB	Justin Fields	26
QB	Jordan Love	2
RB	Tony Pollard	26
RB	D'Andre Swift	13
RB	Jaylen Warren	2
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	1
RB	Leonard Fournette	1
RB	Chase Brown	1
WR	Tyreek Hill	47
WR	Chris Olave	30
WR	Terry McLaurin	24
WR	Treylon Burks	7
WR	Rondale Moore	7
WR	Darnell Mooney	1
TE	David Njoku	6
TE	Sam LaPorta	2
K	Nick Folk	1
DEF	Miami Dolphins	1

Team 8
PLAYER	POSITION	PRICE ($)
QB	Justin Herbert	17
RB	Josh Jacobs	28
RB	Kenneth Walker	19
RB	Zach Charbonnet	7
RB	Brian Robinson	5
RB	Tyler Allgeier	4
RB	Raheem Mostert	1
RB	DeWayne McBride	1
WR	Garrett Wilson	33
WR	Jaylen Waddle	33
WR	DK Metcalf	21
WR	D.J. Moore	16
WR	Jordan Addison	8
WR	Adam Thielen	1
WR	Sterling Shepard	1
TE	Dalton Schultz	3
K	Cairo Santos	1
DEF	Kansas City Chiefs	1

Team 9
POSITION	PLAYER	PRICE ($)
QB	Kenny Pickett	2
QB	C.J. Stroud	2
QB	Aaron Rodgers	1
QB	Trey Lance	1
RB	Christian McCaffrey	48
RB	Jonathan Taylor	40
RB	Travis Etienne	26
RB	Aaron Jones	21
WR	Tee Higgins	24
WR	Christian Watson	14
WR	D.J. Chark	1
WR	Wan'Dale Robinson	1
WR	K.J. Osborn	1
TE	George Kittle	12
TE	Cole Kmet	2
TE	Trey McBride	1
K	Cameron Dicker	1
DEF	Philadelphia Eagles	2

Team 10
POSITION	PLAYER	PRICE ($)
QB	Dak Prescott	7
QB	Derek Carr	1
RB	Bijan Robinson	39
RB	Joe Mixon	15
RB	Jamaal Williams	9
RB	Elijah Mitchell	3
RB	D'Onta Foreman	2
RB	Jeff Wilson	1
WR	Davante Adams	35
WR	Deebo Samuel	20
WR	Jerry Jeudy	18
WR	Brandin Cooks	6
WR	Odell Beckham	4
TE	Darren Waller	10
TE	Evan Engram	10
K	Harrison Butker	1
K	Younghoe Koo	1
DEF	Seattle Seahawks	1

Team 11
POSITION	PLAYER	PRICE ($)
QB	Lamar Jackson	22
QB	Kyler Murray	4
RB	Breece Hall	24
RB	Miles Sanders	19
RB	Damien Harris	6
RB	Kendre Miller	4
RB	Devon Achane	1
WR	CeeDee Lamb	40
WR	Diontae Johnson	15
WR	Marquise Brown	15
WR	Quentin Johnston	7
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	5
WR	Isaiah Hodgins	1
WR	Jonathan Mingo	1
TE	Kyle Pitts	13
TE	Tyler Higbee	2
K	Matt Prater	1
DEF	Pittsburgh Steelers	1

Team 12
POSITION	PLAYER	PRICE ($)
QB	Jalen Hurts	30
QB	Trevor Lawrence	10
RB	Rashaad Penny	12
RB	A.J. Dillon	10
RB	Jerome Ford	6
RB	Khalil Herbert	5
RB	Roschon Johnson	2
WR	DeVonta Smith	30
WR	Jameson Williams	17
WR	Mike Evans	15
WR	Michael Pittman	14
WR	Courtland Sutton	8
WR	George Pickens	5
WR	Gabe Davis	4
TE	Greg Dulcich	6
TE	Chigoziem Okonkwo	5
K	Justin Tucker	2
DEF	San Francisco 49ers	2